This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Unlike last week, there are not many line advantages in this week's top five selections.
Buccaneers -2.5 vs 
Saints, 1500 picks, 724 net -- Can Baker Mayfield get his Progressive ad campaign back? The Bucs have won four straight, while the Saints are the literal definition of a league average team. ESPN FPI ranks them 18th in offensive efficiency and 16th on defense. One more win clinches the NFC South for the Bucs. At a spread of 3 I might have leaned Saints but at -2.5 I totally get the Bucs love here, they barely missed our card.
Cowboys -5 vs 
Lions, 1425 picks, 725 net -- How 'bout them Cowboys? We had the Cowboys on our card and….ugh, so close to a cover. As much as 1990s-me would loathe saying this, good for Jimmy Johnson to finally get his name on the Cowboys Ring of Honor. 
Rams -5.5 at 
Giants,1260 picks, 628 net -- I am a Giants fan with literally no feel for their week to week gyrations. The Rams fly across the country for an early game on their body clocks. Tommy DeVito was a great story as Giants quarterback for a few weeks, but he's just not a wartime consigliere. In a decision that was strictly business, Tyrod Taylor will take back the QB reins and probably give the G-Men a better shot to put up some points. Still, I expect the Rams to absolutely roll here, which is probably bad news for anyone actually taking the Rams.
Panthers +6.5 at 
Jaguars, 1240 picks, 699 net -- The spread came out before we got the news that Trevor Lawrence would not suit up. Meanwhile, the teams have trended in opposite directions ... kind of. The Jags have dropped four straight outright while the Panthers have covered three of the last four. Bryce Young had a 110 Rating and 78 QBR last week, but his best marks of his young career. It came against Green Bay's sieve of a defense, but it still counts. The Jags have not exactly stopped anyone in a month, so maybe Young can spike another good game. I liked the Panthers when they opened +7 but it had dropped under the key number by the time Circa posted so we originally did not have it on our card, but we added it after the Lawrence news and line dropped to four.
Ravens -3 vs 
Dolphins, 1191 picks, 449 net -- Lamar Jackson and the entire Ravens team could not have had a better showing than they did on Christmas night at the Niners. Will this turn into a letdown spot on the short week? The pool net-net does not seem to think so, though we did have a shade of line value as the spread has hovered between a juiced -3 and a cheap -3.5. The Dolphins come in off their own big win after edging the Cowboys, but are very banged up.
We spiked our first 5-0 card of the season in Week 15! We sat at 12-3 in Q4 before the Cowboys non-cover, tied for 42nd -- with, um, 79 others. The top five in the quarter cash. That got us to 47-32-1 (59.4%) overall heading into the week, good for 420nd. The full season money stops at the top 100, the back end of which lies 3.5 games up. We need at least an 8-1 finish now to have a shot at either prize. Tough crowd!
We have the Panthers, Raiders +3.5, Bears -3 and Packers +2 on our remaining card. SAINTS 31-1 (Matt Saint) has the Panthers and Rams as well as Colts -3.5, Niners -13 and Seahawks -3.5.
Week 16 Review
Despite the myriad line edges at/near key numbers in Week 15, the crowd as a whole had a so-so week, hitting 51.68 percent.
The five most popular picks all hit, but super important to note that for actual bettors, the Seahawks -2.5 covered in the pool but not in real life at -3.5.
The pool leaders after Week 15 did nicely as the top 10 (plus ties) combined to hit 63.33 percent, making it rough for chasers like us to gain enough ground. We now officially have no shot at One Million Dollars.
SAINTS 31-1 has 58.5 points for an impossibly good 73.1 percent mark, RDLOWN-1 is now 2nd with 57 points, followed by two more at 55 points. How ridiculous are these scores? On the Football Contest Show on VSiN, Circa Sports Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson said SAINTS has put up the best score ever in one of these large football contests. Steve Fezzik sits tied for 5th here with 54.5 points (68.1 percent), which according to Benson is better than he did either time he won the Westgate Super Contest that was considered the premier event of this type before the Circa Million came along.
