This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
As was pointed out on the The Football Contest Show on VSiN, lots of cross currents going on in the Circa Millions V pool as we steam to the finish line. Players in the top 100 might flock to line edges, though at the very very top, who knows? You could argue that either way on what to do with those. Others near the bottom of the pool are gaming the sizable booby prize. There is also a quarterly prize as this is Week 2 of Q4. 170 players did not submit a card at all. Anyways, here are the top 5 picks.
Titans -2.5 vs 
Texans, 1772 picks, 1330 net: A few weeks ago we had CJ Stroud slinging bullets down the field to emerging stud wideouts Tank Dell and Nico Collins. Now we have the reanimated QB corpse of Case Keenum throwing to Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz. The look ahead here was Texans -3.5, but a combo of the Stroud injury on top of the Texans implosion vs the Jets had this Titans -2.5 when Circa set the lines, and now with a huge contest edge as the spread busted up to -3.5 at pick deadline time. Best I remember, no line has gone fully through 3 between the Circa release to the Saturday deadline. We have the Titans on our card. I do believe there are times to fade the line moves and try to steal a win vs the masses (or willfully avoid picking it). Going through 3 will virtually never be one of those times. Also, no way I am not backing the Titans in their glorious Houston Oilers throwbacks though I would strongly argue that the Texans are the ones that should get to wear these. C'mon NFL, the the powder blues belong to the city of Houston.
Bills -2 vs 
Cowboys, 1637 picks, 872 net: Nobody Circles the Wagons….like the Buffalo Bills. The Bills will play their fourth straight late afternoon national audience mega-game (with a bye in the middle). It would shock no one if they run the table into the Super Bowl….or if they gag up a couple games and miss the playoffs completely. They almost certainly will play well, it is the untimely mistake that often ends them. The Cowboys look fearsome lately, the -2 really comes thanks to home field. The forecast calls for unseasonably warm temps for Western New York in mid-December, but possible rain and winds in the 10-20 mph range. Perfect Bills Mafia Table Slam weather. Then again, so is heat and snow and everything in between. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys light everyone up at home, but have not had a history of great road performances, particularly late season and playoff ones, so perhaps that accounts for the Bills popularity? We picked them.
Bears +3.5 at 
Browns, 1530 picks, 836 net: More line edge as the Bears have toggled between a juiced +3 and a cheap +3.5. Good matchup here with the Bears hot defense and the revitalized Joe Flacco-led Cleveland offense. Taking the three plus the hook makes some sense whether the underlying spread moved a little bit or not. We liked this side, but left in on the cutting room floor.
Lions -4.5 vs 
Broncos, 1291 picks, 381 net: Detroit Rock City. According an almanac I found, I bet the Lions win 42-17.
Rams -6.5 vs 
Commanders, 1208 picks, 702 net. The Rams are firmly in the massive NFL glob of teams that could pretty much beat or lose to anyone on any given Sunday and it would shock no one. They have played well lately with a healthy Matthew Stafford and breakfast buddies Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Aaron Donald is questionable however. The Commanders come off a bye, but by all appearances have started arranging their offseason tee times. I kept expecting this line to get to seven, but it never budged.
Aside from the Titans and Bills, we booked a win with the Colts -1 and also have the Giants +6 and Ravens -3 on our card.
Week 14 Review
Circa Millions contestants had a good Week 14, but with major caveats. Net-net the pool hit 53 percent.
Edges vs stale lines account for a lot of that. The top pick, Bengals pick em in the pool, closed at Bengals -3. The third choice -- 49ers -11 here -- closed at Niners -15 and covered in the pool but not for bettors in after Thursday when news trickled out that Geno Smith would likely miss the game. A net of 1856 picks were on these two games, so if we take it out of the accumulate totals, the pool was under 50 percent.
We went 4-0 heading into Monday Night, then we got diced up by Tommy Cutlets. Fuhgetaboutit! I am a Giants fan, I have lived in North Jersey most of my life, I will take it! Tired: Get a good draft slot and a new QB. Wired: We have our QB! Yeah, really unlikely, but fun while it lasts.
Anyways, we sit at 39-30-1 (56.4 percent), tied for 1005th place with 200 others. SAINTS31-1, who I assume must be Bobby Hebert, leads with a sterling 49-20-1 mark, so we have a tough climb to make up 1000+ spots and ten games in 4 weeks. The payouts stop at the top 100, and 99th place now has 45 points so that remains a goal with a hot run. There is also the Q4 prize, and 203 contestants got off to a 5-0 start.
The leaders after Week 13 performed pretty much in line with the masses as the top 10 (plus ties) went 39-31-5.
