NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 7

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Published on October 16, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 7

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are three, seven, six, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

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NFL Week 7 Odds

BYES: Panthers, Bengals, Cowboys, Texans, Jets, Titans

Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1.0) O/U 40.0
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) O/U 42.5
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) O/U 39.0
Cleveland Browns (-2.0) at Indianapolis Colts O/U 39.5
Washington Commanders (-2.0) at New York Giants O/U 40.5
Buffalo Bills (-9.0) at New England Patriots O/U 42.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-3.0) at Chicago Bears O/U 37.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.0) O/U 43.5
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) O/U 45.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) O/U 50.5
Green Bay Packers (-2.0) at Denver Broncos O/U 45.0
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) O/U 52.5
San Francisco 49ers (-7.0) at Minnesota Vikings O/U 44.0

Week 7 observations - There are a TON of potential injury issues that could impact lines this week. Also, keep a follow on this page as I do post updates to line moves throughout the week and the potential impact.

Bears - Justin Fields (hand, doubtful) worth 2-3 points to line

Raiders - Jimmy Garoppolo (back, left game midway) worth 2-3 points to line

Bills - Josh Allen (shoulder, does not look serious)

Rams - Kyren Williams/Ronnie Rivers (ankle/knee), worth 1-2 points to line

Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence (knee, MRI scheduled), worth 3-4 points to line

Lions - David Montgomery (ribs), worth 1-2 points to line

Eagles - Lane Johnson (ankle), 1 point to line

49ers - Christian McCaffrey (ribs), Deebo Samuel (shoulder), Trent Williams (ankle) CMC 2-to-3-point impact, Deebo/Trent 1-point impact

Titans - Ryan Tannehill (ankle); team is on BYE but could be 2-to-3-point line impact if OUT

Week 6 only saw TWO games go OVER the total, oddsmakers have adjusted totals in a lot of games already this week.

Highest point spread - Bills -9

Lowest point spread - Saints -1

Highest total - Dolphins/Eagles 52.5

Lowest total - Raiders/Bears 37

Only two games with totals over 45.5 - Dolphins/Eagles, Chargers/Chiefs

Only four games with a line over 3.0 - Bills, Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers

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NFL Week 7 Line Movement: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There are no key injuries driving this line move which saw the Falcons open -1.0, but shift to Bucs -2.5. The Falcons had a bad loss at home to the Commanders, and the Bucs also had a difficult time at home against the Lions. The general feeling is that these teams are a lot closer hence the field goal line in the game.

There is no confidence in Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and we could see a quarterback change to Taylor Heinicke, which probably does not move the line, or maybe by 1 point in favor of the Falcons.

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NFL Week 7 Line Movement: Washington Commanders at New York Giants

The Giants are not only dealing with a disappointing season, but a TON of injuries. They deserve a lot of credit for giving the Bills a tough game Sunday night losing, 14-9. The Commanders got blown out by the Bears, but then had a solid win on the road against the Falcons.

The line opened Giants -2.5, but the injuries have really moved the line to Commanders -2.0. Depending on the health status of Daniel Jones, the line could move toward the Giants at PICK or +1 for sure.

The total opened 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5, based on the putrid Giants offense and injuries.

NFL Week 7 Line Movement: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

The Bills opened -2.5 favorites on the road and it had jumped to -7.5 last Sunday. The number is now at Bills -9.0. Josh Allen did suffer a shoulder injury Sunday night, but it does not look to be serious. The Patriots have injuries on defense and are inept on offense. This number does look high considering it is a divisional rivalry and we just saw the Browns/Jets win outright as heavy home underdogs.

The Pats should have won or covered against the Raiders, which would have put this line closer to -7 so there is value on them at -9 or -9.5 in some spots. The total has dropped from 45.5 to 42.5.

NFL Week 7 Line Movement: Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears

Both teams are dealing with injured quarterbacks as Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo could be OUT this Sunday. Currently the Raiders are listed as -3 road favorites, and it feels like that is the Fields impact, but not yet Jimmy G. If Jimmy G is ruled out, we could see this line come back closer to Raiders to PICK. The total is where you need to pay the most attention, as it opened 46.5 and has plummeted all the way down to 37.5.

The risk in playing UNDER in a game like this is all of the potential turnovers and penalties that will lead to unpredictable scoring. This Bears defense is still pretty bad regardless.

NFL Week 7 Line Movement: Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos

Good luck watching this game or having any involvement whatsoever. There are a few potential DUDS on the schedule this week and this is one of them. This line opened Broncos -3.5, but has moved all the way to Packers -2.0 despite how poorly they have played.

The total opened 46.5 and has dipped to 45.0, but the Packers offense is dreadful as is the Broncos defense. While this line has moved 5.5 points, it is hard pressed to take the Packers favored on the road against anyone right now, especially a non-conference game.

NFL Week 7 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings

This line opened 49ers -1.0, but moved to -2.5 in the summer. It jumped to -7.0 last Sunday and settled in around that number. However, there are key injuries on both sides. The Vikings are without Justin Jefferson and the 49ers are dealing with injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Trent William, and Deebo Samuel. The status of those players will contribute to where this line moves, as we have already seen the 49ers dip a little in some spots.

The total has dropped from 47.0 to 44.0 based on the 49ers defense and the injuries.

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