NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 17

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Published on December 26, 2023

NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 17

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14 and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

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NFL Week 17 Odds

Week 17 Schedule

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns -7.5 O/U 36.0 OPENED JETS -1.0, 45.0

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys -6.0 O/U 53.5 OPENED COWBOYS -2.5, 50.5

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens -3.0 O/U 47.0 OPENED RAVENS -1.0, 46.5

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -12.0 O/U 40.5 OPENED BILLS -5.5, 45.5

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears -3.0 O/U 39.0 OPENED BEARS -2.0, 37.5

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans -3.5, O/U 42.5 OPENED TITANS -1.0, 43.0

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts -3.0, O/U 44.0 OPENED RAIDERS -2.0, 44.0

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5, O/U 37.5 OPENED JAGUARS -5.0, 39.5

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 at New York Giants O/U 42.0 OPENED GIANTS -3.0, 45.0

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles -9.5 O/U 47.5 OPENED EAGLES -10.0, 47.0

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0 O/U 42.5 OPENED SAINTS -1.5, 41.5

San Francisco 49ers -13.5 at Washington Commanders O/U 48.5 OPENED 49ERS -3.0, 42.0

Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks -3.5 O/U 41.5 OPENED SEAHAWKS -2.0, 45.0

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 O/U 45.5 OPENED CHIEFS -3.5, 50.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos -5.5 O/U 38.5 OPENED BRONCOS -1.0, 38.0

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings -1.5 O/U 45.5 OPENED VIKINGS -2.5, 44.5

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Week 17 Key Injury News

Jets - QB Zach Wilson (concussion)

49ers - QB Brock Purdy (neck), OL Trent Williams (groin)

Ravens - S Kyle Hamilton (knee), OL Kevin Zeitler (thigh)

Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder)

Browns - RB Kareem Hunt (groin)

Dolphins - WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle)

Chiefs - RB Isiah Pacheco (concussion), RB Jerick McKinnon (groin)

Raiders - RB Josh Jacobs (quad)

Vikings - TE T.J. Hockenson (knee), WR Jordan Addison (ankle)

Broncos - WR Courtland Sutton (concussion)

Bears - TE Cole Kmet (knee), WR D.J. Moore (ankle)

Falcons - OL Jake Matthews (knee)

Week 17 observations

Highest point spread – 49ers/Commanders, -13.5

Lowest point spread – Packers/Vikings -1.5

Highest total – Lions/Cowboys O/U 53.0

Lowest total – Jets/Browns O/U 35.5

Three games with totals over 46.5 - Dolphins/Ravens, 49ers/Commanders, Cardinals/Eagles, Lions/Cowboys

Four games with totals of 39 or less – Jets/Browns, Falcons/Bears, Panthers/Jaguars, Chargers/Broncos

Two games with lines at least -11.5 or higher – Patriots/Bills, 49ers/Commanders

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement: New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

There are two inflection points when it comes to line movement in the NFL - the original opening line until now, and the re-open line until now. The original line opened in May when Aaron Rodgers was the Jets' starting quarterback and was Jets -1.0. The re-open line came on Dec. 19 and was Browns -4.5. It has since moved to -5.5, -7.0 and crossed over the 7 to -7.5, which is significant.

The performance of Joe Flacco has been nothing short of amazing as they literally signed him off his couch and he is throwing for 300 yards a game. The Browns defense is one of the best in football, especially at home which is why the total has gone from the original open of 40.0 and moved to 35.5. I think the total could drop even further as the Jets will be challenged to score any points. Their projected team total of 14.3 points is an attractive UNDER play.

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NFL Week 17 Line Movement: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

The Bills opened -5.5 in May and the Patriots were looked at as a middle-of-the-pack team before the season. But the Pats are a bottom-five team while the Bills have had some ups and downs, but are playing solid ball now.

The re-open was Bills -12.5 and has moved down to Bills -11.5. A combination of the Patriots winning on the road at the Broncos and the Bills playing a very close game at the Chargers as 12-point favorites could move this line closer to Bills -10. The total opened at 45 and has come down 4.5 points to 40.5 and could go even lower as the Patriots' defense is still solid and weather could be a factor.

NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants

The Rams were expected to be a bottom-five team, while the Giants were coming off a playoff win last season so they opened as -3.0 home favorites. But the Giants' season has been a disaster with poor quarterback play and injuries, while the Rams have exceeded expectations and are one of the hottest teams in football.

The re-open has the Rams as -6.0 or -6.5 road favorites, which seems like an overreaction as the Giants are coming off a competitive game at the Eagles. The total has come down from the original open of 45.0 and is now at 42.0. As usual with outdoor games in December, pay attention to the weather report.

NFL Week 17 Line Movement: San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders

It is hard to imagine the 49ers opened as just -3.0 road favorites against the Commanders, but the line movement certainly reflects where both teams are at. The 49ers are pushing toward being 14-point road favorites in this spot and are coming off a tough loss at home to the Ravens on Monday night. While the Commanders were getting blown out by the Jets, only to make a huge comeback but lose in the end.

Laying double digits on the road in the NFL is always tough, as we saw that in the Bills/Chargers game as the Chargers came out highly motivated while the Bills were flat. It could be a similar situation in this game, especially if Jacoby Brissett ends up starting at quarterback for the Commanders.

NFL Week 17 Line Movement: Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Another game in which you think back to the preseason and the Raiders were -2.0 road favorites, but are now +3.0 underdogs. The Raiders' season has started to turn around with head coach Antonio Pierce, who has their defense playing solid. They are coming off an impressive road win against the Chiefs. The Colts are fighting for a playoff spot and this is a must-win game for them especially with the Jaguars and Texans losing.

This game could end up being one of the best ones on the slate which is saying a lot with Lions-Cowboys, Dolphins-Ravens this week.

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