This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Kansas City (+1.5) vs. Philadelphia, o/u 50.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The Kelce Bowl is finally upon us. Kansas City comes into this one having won seven consecutive games by an average score of about 28-20, finally getting the better of Joe Burrow in the process in the AFC championship game. As they did during their Super Bowl run in 2019, Andy Reid's crew has tightened up defensively down the stretch, and K.C. has allowed more than 20 points in a game only once in the last five, while holding all seven opponents during their winning streak to less than 350 yards of offense while generating 12 takeaways. Patrick Mahomes' ankle is still something of a concern, but the extra week between games can only help his mobility, and the Eagles' depth at cornerback won't be as big an advantage against a group of relatively interchangeable wideouts. Marquez Valdes-Scantling came up big against Cincy, but it could just as easily be JuJu Smith-Schuster or Kadarius Toney this time out, or even a random splash play from someone like Skyy Moore. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce remains pretty much uncoverable and already has three TDs in two playoffs games this season, and a five-game postseason scoring streak. In fact, in 11 playoff games during the last five years, he's only failed to get into the end zone twice, racking up 13 TDs during that stretch.
The Eagles survived a little two-game late-season losing streak while Jalen Hurts was sidelined and have
Kansas City (+1.5) vs. Philadelphia, o/u 50.5
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
The Kelce Bowl is finally upon us. Kansas City comes into this one having won seven consecutive games by an average score of about 28-20, finally getting the better of Joe Burrow in the process in the AFC championship game. As they did during their Super Bowl run in 2019, Andy Reid's crew has tightened up defensively down the stretch, and K.C. has allowed more than 20 points in a game only once in the last five, while holding all seven opponents during their winning streak to less than 350 yards of offense while generating 12 takeaways. Patrick Mahomes' ankle is still something of a concern, but the extra week between games can only help his mobility, and the Eagles' depth at cornerback won't be as big an advantage against a group of relatively interchangeable wideouts. Marquez Valdes-Scantling came up big against Cincy, but it could just as easily be JuJu Smith-Schuster or Kadarius Toney this time out, or even a random splash play from someone like Skyy Moore. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce remains pretty much uncoverable and already has three TDs in two playoffs games this season, and a five-game postseason scoring streak. In fact, in 11 playoff games during the last five years, he's only failed to get into the end zone twice, racking up 13 TDs during that stretch.
The Eagles survived a little two-game late-season losing streak while Jalen Hurts was sidelined and have absolutely dominated their side of the bracket in the playoffs, winning their two games by a combined score of 69-14. I do think those routs might be overstating how well they're playing, though. Kansas City had to get past Trevor Lawrence and Burrow, while Philly only had to beat Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson. Hurts didn't have to do much in those wins, so it's tough to judge whether his shoulder is still an issue at all, but he has run for a TD in each playoff win, so I'm inclined to think the answer is "not at all." His running could be the biggest edge either team has, as K.C. allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league to QBs during the regular season. The third-year quarterback probably can't get away with throwing for less than 200 yards in this matchup, though. The Eagles defense was an elite unit all season — first in sacks, second in pressure rate, first in passing yards per game allowed, top 5 in takeaways, etc., etc. — and might be able to give Mahomes some trouble, but the reverse might be true for Hurts and Kansas City's front seven too, as both left guard Landon Dickerson and right tackle Lane Johnson are nursing injuries.
The Skinny
KC injuries: WR Mecole Hardman (IR, pelvis)
PHI injuries: no fantasy-relevant injuries
KC DFS targets: none
PHI DFS targets: A.J. Brown $9,200 DK / $12,500 FD (KC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
KC DFS fades: Mahomes $11,000 DK / $17,500 FD (PHI first in passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPA allowed), Smith-Schuster $5,600 DK / $9,000 FD (PHI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Marquez-Scantling $6,200 DK / $8,000 FD (PHI sixth in DVOA vs. WR2)
PHI DFS fades: none
Key stat: KC is second in third-down conversions at 48.7 percent; PHI is 14th in third-down defense at 38.6 percent
The Scoop: Isiah Pacheco leads the KC backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, while Jerick McKinnon catches a TD pass and Moore also runs in a score. Mahomes throws for 270 yards and a second TD to Kelce. Miles Sanders racks up 90 yards. Hurts throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Brown while running for 50 yards and a score, but he can't put together a game-tying drive in the final minutes. Kansas City 31-23
2022 playoff record: 9-3, 7-5 ATS, 4-8 o/u
2022 regular-season record: 156-113-2, 122-142-7 ATS, 140-128-3 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 1444-882-9, 1127-1134-74 ATS, 875-915-33 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
