NFL Game Previews: Rams-Cardinals Matchup

L.A. Rams (+2.5) at Arizona, o/u 51.5 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

A visit from the Jaguars was just what the Rams needed to snap their three-game losing streak, but a loss here ends any hope they have of winning the NFC West — they'd be three back of the Cards with four to play, and Arizona will have swept the season series. Both the offense and defense were struggling heading into the Rams' Week 11 bye, but the former unit at least seems to be back in form, piling up 65 points the last two games. Odell Beckham has quickly made himself at home, while the ridiculous Matthew Stafford-Cooper Kupp connection continues to be the team's engine. It's the defense that remains an engima. Prior to shutting down the Jags, which anybody can do, Aaron Donald and company had given up nearly 30 points a game over the previous month. They should be better than that, but the pieces just don't seem to be coming together. The Cards remain headed for the No. 1 seed, but considering both their losses have come at home, maybe that's not a good thing. Their record is still very impressive considering the key injuries they've had lately, but Kyler Murray accounted for four TDs in his return last week and the receiving corps is now basically healthy as well. Arizona has been the class of the NFL all season, and barring another rash of injuries, it's tough to see them stumbling down the stretch.

The Skinny

LAR injuries: RB Darrell Henderson (questionable, thigh), C Brian Allen (doubtful, knee)

ARI injuries: RB Chase Edmonds (IR-R, ankle), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, shoulder), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, calf), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, foot)

LAR DFS targets: none

ARI DFS targets: DeAndre Hopkins $6,500 DK / $7,300 FD (LAR 26th in DVOA vs. WR1)

LAR DFS fades: Kupp $9,200 DK / $9,000 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. WR1), Tyler Higbee $3,900 DK / $5,500 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. TE)

ARI DFS fades: James Conner $6,200 DK / $7,200 FD and Edmonds $4,500 DK / $5,500 FD (LAR second in rushing DVOA, second in YPC allowed)

Key stat: ARI is fourth in red-zone conversions at 68.8 percent; LAR are 13th in red-zone defense at 56.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 LAR, average score 27-17 LAR, average margin of victory 20 points. Only two of the last 12 meetings have been decided by less than 10 points, including a 37-20 victory for ARI in Week 4

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Henderson picks up 80 combined yards and a TD. Stafford throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Beckham and Van Jefferson. Conner leads the ARI backfield with 60 yards and a score. Murray throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and Christian Kirk while running in a score of his own. Cardinals 34-27

Dallas at Washington (+4), o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

This is a crucial contest for the Cowboys. A win puts them three games up on Washington and the idle Eagles in the NFC East with three weeks to go, basically locking up the division barring an epic collapse (which, let's be honest, isn't out of the question ... this is the NFC East we're talking about). A loss, however, and they suddenly have only a one-game lead on their rivals from DC. Dallas has only intermittently looked like a playoff team lately, going 2-3 in its last five, and the two wins were over a shaky Falcons squad and a Saints team that can't find a QB. Even so, the offense has scored at least 27 points in three of its last four, while the defense has held three of its last four opponents to less than 20 points — normally that would be a formula for success, but the two units haven't quite been in sync. As for Washington, it's gotten itself into this position with four consecutive wins, a couple even coming against legitimate opposition. The defense has finally figured things out and has led the way, not allowing more than 21 points in five straight — a remarkable run considering Chase Young was lost for the season a few weeks ago. It's also been a necessary effort, as Taylor Heinicke has led the offense to 17 points or less in five of the last seven. Kudos to the 28-year-old for proving he belongs in the NFL, but there won't likely be any feel-good holiday movies made about his career, and he really hasn't done anything to stop the front office from at least looking around for a franchise QB in the offseason.

The Skinny

DAL injuries: RB Tony Pollard (questionable, foot), DE Randy Gregory (IR, calf), S Donovan Wilson (IR, shoulder)

WAS injuries: RB J.D. McKissic (questionable, concussion), WR Curtis Samuel (questionable, groin), TE Logan Thomas (IR, knee), RT Samuel Cosmi (IR, hip), K Joey Slye (IR, hamstring), DE Montez Sweat (IR, jaw/COVID-19), LB Jamin Davis (questionable, concussion), S Landon Collins (questionable, foot)

DAL DFS targets: Dak Prescott $6,700 DK / $8,100 FD (WAS 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in TD% allowed), Amari Cooper $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)

WAS DFS targets: none

DAL DFS fades: none

WAS DFS fades: Terry McLaurin $7,000 DK / $7,100 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1)

Key stat: WAS is t-29th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; DAL is 18th in red-zone defense at 61.8 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 DAL, average score 27-23 DAL, average margin of victory 15 points. The last four meetings have been decided by 10 points or more, and four of the last five season series have been sweeps

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 9-10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Ezekiel Elliott picks up 70 yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 250 yards and three touchdowns, hitting CeeDee Lamb, Cooper and Michael Gallup. Antonio Gibson jets for 90 yards and a score. Heinicke throws for 240 yards and a TD to Ricky Seals-Jones but gets picked off twice. Cowboys 34-20

Jacksonville (+8.5) at Tennessee, o/u 44.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The battle for the basement in the AFC South suddenly looks a lot more interesting now that the Lions have a win in their pocket, as whichever of the Jags and Texans does worse down the stretch could find themselves with the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft. (They meet each other next week too). Jacksonville's offense remains an embarrassment, failing to score more than 17 points in six consecutive games following the team's bye, and Trevor Lawrence somehow has a 2:2 TD:INT, 56.2 percent completion rate and 5.0 YPA in that stretch. How is that even possible in the modern era? We don't know yet whether wasting a year on Urban Meyer will have an impact on Lawrence's long-term ceiling, but it's certainly not an ideal way to start a career. The Titans still cling to a one-game lead over the Colts in the division that's really a two-game lead thanks to Tennessee sweeping the season series back when they still had a healthy Derrick Henry, but they lost consecutive games heading into their bye last week, including a loss to Houston. Ryan Tannehill hasn't elevated his game to make up for Henry's loss, managing a 4:6 TD:INT and 6.1 YPA in that four-game stretch, but he also hasn't had a healthy group of wideouts to target. Julio Jones might return for this one, but A.J. Brown is still out a couple more weeks. That's going to leave little time for the Titans' offense to figure things out ahead of the playoffs, assuming they hang onto a spot. It's a weird thing to say about an 8-4 team that's currently the No. 2 seed in its conference, but the Titans hardly seem like a lock at the moment.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: C Brandon Linder (out, back)

TEN injuries: RB Henry (IR, foot), WR Brown (IR, chest), WR Jones (IR-R, hamstring), LB David Long (out, hamstring), LB Zach Cunningham (out, coach's decision), OLB Bud Dupree (IR, abdomen), CB Janoris Jenkins (out, ankle)

JAC DFS targets: none

TEN DFS targets: Tannehill $6,400 DK / $7,300 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA, 29th in YPA allowed), Jones $5,400 DK / $6,500 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1), Chester Rogers $3,400 DK / $5,200 FD (JAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Titans DEF $3,700 DK / $4,700 FD (JAC t-30th in giveaways, 31st in points per game)

JAC DFS fades: none

TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: JAC is 27th in third-down conversions at 35.1 percent; TEN is 12th in third-down defense at 38.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 TEN, average score 27-18 TEN, average margin of victory 15 points. Only three of the last 11 meetings have been decided by fewer than 13 points. TEN has won four straight meetings

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: James Robinson manages 60 yards. Lawrence throws for less than 200 yards. D'Onta Foreman leads the TEN backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Dontrell Hilliard adds 70 combined yards. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and TDs to Rogers and Dez Fitzpatrick. Titans 24-9

Seattle at Houston (+7.5), o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

In theory the Seahawks could run the table and still finish 9-8, but realistically the team is headed for its first sub-.500 season of the Russell Wilson era. They did look a little more like themselves in last week's victory over the Niners, but this is still a club that has yet to win consecutive games this year. Seattle is so desperate for some light at the end of the tunnel, Rashaad Penny's 3.5 YPC last week was viewed as a sign of progress. Wilson at least seems back in form, which will give them a puncher's chance in their remaining meetings with contenders (the Rams next week and the Cards in Week 18), but they weren't exactly tearing things up earlier in the season before he got hurt. Pete Carroll's had a great run with the club, but his time may be running out in a division with boy geniuses and offensive gurus patrolling the sidelines for the other three clubs. The Texans stumbled into a win a few weeks ago but have looked mostly inept since, and with the No. 1 pick in next year's draft suddenly in their sights, it's no wonder they're turning the offense back over to Davis Mills rather than risking Tyrod Taylor's occasional moments of competence. The defense is getting its makeover too, with Zach Cunningham getting cut this week after only playing nearly a thousand snaps each of the prior two seasons and piling up massive IDP numbers. Yeah, why would you want a guy like that anchoring the middle of your defense as you try to rebuild? You can point to Cunningham's contract as the reason for the move, but it's not like the Texans are up against the cap, especially once they finally deal Deshaun Watson, and the vague "disciplinary reasons" that got the linebacker benched last week seem awfully convenient too. For that matter, Laremy Tunsil's recovery from his thumb surgery is taking an awful lot longer than was originally estimated. Tankers gonna tank, I guess.

The Skinny

SEA injuries: RT Brandon Shell (out, shoulder), S Jamal Adams (IR, shoulder), S Quandre Diggs (questionable, calf)

HOU injuries: QB Watson (out), WR Brandin Cooks (questionable, back), WR Danny Amendola (IR, knee), LT Tunsil (IR, thumb), DE Jonathan Greenard (questionable, foot)

SEA DFS targets: Alex Collins $5,200 DK / $5,600 FD and Penny $4,800 DK / $5,300 FD (HOU 28th in rushing DVOA, 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed)

HOU DFS targets: none

SEA DFS fades: none

HOU DFS fades: none

Key stat: HOU is 28th in red-zone conversions at 52.0 percent; SEA is t-4th in red-zone defense at 50.0 percent

Weather forecast: retractable roof

The Scoop: Collins leads the SEA backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Wilson throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett. David Johnson leads the HOU backfield with 70 scrimmage yards and a receiving TD, while Rex Burkhead punches in a short score. Mills throws for 210 yards and gets picked off twice. Seahawks 24-17

Las Vegas (+9.5) at Kansas City, o/u 48.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Raiders remain in the playoff mix for now, but they've lost four of their last five, and the lone win came against a Cowboys squad on Thanksgiving that had plenty of issues of its own at the time. The offense has failed to score more than 16 points in any of the team's six losses this year, or to put it another way, Vegas is 6-0 when Derek Carr can lead it to at least 26 points. Easier said than done, though, especially when Hunter Renfrow is your only healthy, reliable target. There's also the little matter of their consistent futility in this rivalry, and Kansas City smoked the Raiders 41-14 in Week 10, continuing a history of routs during the Patrick Mahomes era. That's the only time Andy Reid's scheme has been in top form lately, though. KC hasn't scored more than 22 points any other time in its last six games, and instead it's the defense that's been the dominant side, allowing 13.7 points per game since coughing up 30-plus in four straight early in the season. That's the secret formula that won them a Super Bowl a couple years ago, so if Mahomes starts cranking it up again — and a date with the Raiders tends to bring that out of him — the rest of the AFC should probably get nervous.

The Skinny

LV injuries: RB Kenyan Drake (IR, ankle), RB Jalen Richard (questionable, COVID-19), TE Darren Waller (out, knee), LG Richie Incognito (IR, calf), LB Denzel Perryman (doubtful, ankle), CB Trayvon Mullen (IR-R, toe)

KC injuries: RT Lucas Niang (questionable, ribs), CB Rashad Fenton (questionable, knee)

LV DFS targets: Josh Jacobs $6,200 DK / $7,100 FD (KC 29th in YPC allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB)

KC DFS targets: Travis Kelce $7,400 DK / $7,500 FD (LV 30th in DVOA vs. TE)

LV DFS fades: Bryan Edwards $3,300 DK / $5,000 FD (KC first in DVOA vs. WR3)

KC DFS fades: none

Key stat: KC is first in third-down conversions at 50.7 percent; LV is 20th in third-down defense at 41.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 KC, average score 32-19 KC, average margin of victory 15 points. Four of the last six meetings have been decided by 18 points or more. Mahomes has never led KC to less than 28 points in seven career meetings against LV, going 6-1

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 40s, 16-17 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jacobs bangs out 110 scrimmage yards and a score. Carr throws for 260 yards and two TDs, finding Foster Moreau and Renfrow. Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the KC backfield with 80 yards. Mahomes throws for 310 yards and four touchdowns, hitting Kelce twice and Tyreek Hill and Byron Pringle once each. Kansas City 28-24

New Orleans at N.Y. Jets (+5.5), o/u 43.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Saints' five-game losing streak has spiraled them down to the bottom of the NFC South, but that's what happens when you don't have a quality backup to your quality backup quarterback. To be fair to Trevor Siemian, the offense wasn't the entire problem while he was under center, and he did manage a solid 9:3 TD:INT in his five games — fewer INTs than Taysom Hill tossed in his first start last week. Hill probably wasn't 100 percent healthy, but that raises the question of why Sean Payton thinks a healthy Hill is an upgrade in the first place. At least Alvin Kamara will be back after a four-game absence, which will probably matter more in the grand scheme of things anyway. The Jets' focus is firmly on 2022, whether Robert Saleh will publicly admit it or not, but things are lining up pretty well for them on the draft front at least — not only are they currently headed for the fourth overall pick in the draft, they also hold Seattle's first rounder (from the Jamal Adams deal) and Carolina's second rounder (from the Sam Darnold trade), potentially giving Gang Green four picks in the top 50 or so. That's a big talent infusion to help build a foundation around Zach Wilson, and the rookie actually had a semi-respectable outing last week. He still hasn't topped a 6.0 YPA in a game since Week 4, but if he stays healthy down the stretch and continues to build chemistry with guys like Elijah Moore, things might actually start looking up for New York's AFC contingent.

The Skinny

NO injuries: RB Mark Ingram (doubtful, COVID-19), WR Deonte Harris (out, suspension), WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (questionable, hamstring), RT Ryan Ramczyk (out, knee), DE Cameron Jordan (questionable, COVID-19)

NYJ injuries: RB Michael Carter (IR, ankle), RB Tevin Coleman (out, concussion), WR Moore (questionable, quadriceps), WR Corey Davis (IR, groin), TE Ryan Griffin (questionable, ankle), LT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (questionable, ankle), LB C.J. Mosley (questionable, back)

NO DFS targets: Hill $5,600 DK / $7,700 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 31st in YPA allowed), Kamara $7,900 DK / $9,000 FD (NYJ 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed), Humphrey $3,200 DK / $4,800 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Nick Vannett $3,100 DK / $4,700 FD and Juwan Johnson $2,900 DK / $4,400 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. TE)

NYJ DFS targets: Jamison Crowder $4,700 DK / $5,500 FD (NO 29th in DVOA vs. WR3)

NO DFS fades: none

NYJ DFS fades: Ty Johnson $4,400 DK / $4,900 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, first in YPC allowed), Jets DEF $2,500 DK / $3,000 FD (31st in takeaways, 32nd in points per game allowed)

Key stat: NO is second in red-zone conversions at 71.1 percent; NYJ are 15th in red-zone defense at 60.4 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, 9-11 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kamara makes a splash with 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Hill throws for 230 yards and a TD to Juwan Johnson while running in a score of his own. Ty Johnson pieces together 60 scrimmage yards. Wilson throws for 250 yards and a TD to Crowder but gets picked off twice. Saints 28-13

Atlanta (+2.5) at Carolina, o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Both these teams are inexplicably still in the wild-card hunt, and there's no guarantee falling to 5-8 even changes the equation all that much for the loser, as it's entirely possible the NFC has at least one team with a sub-.500 record still in position for the postseason after this week. Huzzah for the expanded playoff format! The Falcons have dropped three of their last four, with the one win coming against the Jags, so it really shouldn't count, and they lost their first meeting with the Panthers in Week 8. Matt Ryan has a brutal 1:5 TD:INT in that four-game stretch, and defenses have neutralized Kyle Pitts recently, leaving Russell Gage as Ryan's top option. No wonder he's struggled. The Panthers have also lost three of four before last week's bye, but their lone win shockingly came against the Cardinals, even if it was a very beat-up Arizona squad. The buzz from that Cam Newton-fueled victory faded quickly, though. Newton looked so bad against Miami in Week 12, the head coach wouldn't even Rhule out (sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to remove it) giving P.J. Walker some snaps this week. The silence from the team on Sam Darnold's health after he was supposed to be evaluated after the bye suggests he's not going to return this season, but man, it would really throw a monkey wrench into their offseason plans if he somehow made it back onto the field and led a Christian McCaffrey-less Carolina to a one-and-done in the playoffs.

The Skinny

ATL injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, personal)

CAR injuries: QB Darnold (IR, shoulder), RB McCaffrey (IR, ankle), LT Cameron Erving (IR, calf), LG Michael Jordan (out, hamstring), RG John Miller (out, ankle), CB Jaycee Horn (IR, foot)

ATL DFS targets: Gage $5,700 DK / $6,200 FD (CAR 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Olamide Zaccheaus $3,800 DK / $5,100 FD (CAR 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)

CAR DFS targets: Robby Anderson $4,300 DK / $5,500 FD (ATL 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)

ATL DFS fades: Tajae Sharpe $3,600 DK / $4,800 FD (CAR first in DVOA vs. WR2), Pitts $5,500 DK / $5,900 FD (CAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE), Falcons DEF $2,900 DK / $3,500 FD (32nd in sacks, 31st in points per game allowed)

CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: ATL is 16th in third-down conversions at 40.3 percent; CAR is fifth in third-down defense at 35.1 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 ATL, average score 27-18 ATL, average margin of victory 12 points. The road team has won three straight meetings and five of the last six in this rivalry

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cordarrelle Patterson totes up 90 scrimmage yards and a TD. Ryan throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Zaccheaus. Chuba Hubbard dashes for 100 combined yards and a score. Newton throws for less than 200 yards but runs for 50 and a TD. Panthers 23-17

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cleveland, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Ravens remain in first place in the AFC North at 8-4, but their season seems to be hanging by a thread as the secondary has just been torn to shreds. Per our depth chart six defensive backs are on IR, including Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and DeShon Elliott, while another four are on the injury report as questionable. Baltimore was already near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed, but they could really bottom out over the final stretch. With teams making it something of a priority not to let Lamar Jackson beat them with his legs — he's getting his usual rushing yards, but he hasn't run for a TD since Week 2, which seems almost impossible — they've had to try to grind out close wins, going 2-2 over their last four. In all four games, both teams scored 10 to 22 points, but none of those contests came against elite QBs or high-octane passing games. At some point they're going to run into an offense that will simply bury their patchwork DBs, but that point likely won't be Week 14 (after that all bets are off, though, as the Ravens' next three games come against Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford). The anthropomorphic medical chart known as Baker Mayfield continues to gut it out for the 6-6 Browns as they fight to stay in the playoff picture. Heading into last week's bye, he's managed a 5:3 TD:INT, 56.1 percent completion rate and 6.8 YPA in his prior five games, and while the rest probably helped a bit, he's still in bad shape. Cleveland still prefers to run it down the opposition's throat, but the team needs some kind of passing threat to make that work. When these two teams met a couple weeks ago, the Ravens held Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to a combined 36 rushing yards and dared Mayfield to beat them. He couldn't, but that was a few healthy corners ago for Baltimore.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RT Patrick Mekari (out, hand), CB Humphrey (IR, pectoral), CB Peters (IR, knee), CB Anthony Averett (questionable, knee), S Elliott (IR, pectoral), S Brandon Stephens (questionable, shoulder)

CLE injuries: TE David Njoku (out, COVID-19), LB Anthony Walker (out, COVID-19), CB Greg Newsome (out, concussion), S Ronnie Harrison (questionable, ankle)

BAL DFS targets: none

CLE DFS targets: Mayfield $5,200 DK / $6,500 FD (BAL 31st in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed)

BAL DFS fades: none

CLE DFS fades: none

Key stat: CLE is 12th in yards per play at 5.74; BAL is 31st in yards per play allowed at 6.01

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 BAL, average score 27-18 BAL, average margin of victory 12 points. BAL has won four straight meetings, including a 16-10 victory in Week 12

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, 13-14 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devonta Freeman leads the BAL backfield with 60 yards. Jackson throws for 250 yards and two TDs, hitting Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman. Chubb churns out 80 yards and a score, while Hunt adds 50 scrimmage yards and a receiving touchdowns. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a second TD to Jarvis Landry. Browns 24-17

N.Y. Giants (+10) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 43.0
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The formula for the Giants has been pretty simple this season. If the defense can hold the opposition to less than 20 points, the Giants can win (3-1). If not, they probably lose (1-7). That's what happens when your offense only rises to the level of being one-dimensional when Saquon Barkley is healthy. Daniel Jones shoulders perhaps too much of the blame for not keeping the team afloat despite a receiving corps in which no one can stay in the lineup, but now he's out too so he's off the hook for a bit, and Mike Glennon gets to be the fall guy. Fortunately, Saquon gets to face one of the league's worst run defenses this week, so they might have a chance in this one. At 7-5, the Chargers are currently holding down a wild-card spot and sit one game back of Kansas City in the AFC West, but they've never met an inferior opponent they couldn't play down to, and with KC lurking in Week 15 they could easily get caught looking ahead. Justin Herbert has tossed multiple TDs in five of his last six games, but he's also been picked off in five of those six, giving him a 13:7 TD:INT in that stretch. The second-year QB will also be without his top target in Keenan Allen, and maybe his No. 2 Mike Williams as well, but even if he's down to depth options at wideout he should still be able to put some drives together. The big question might be whether his defense can get him the ball often enough for Herbert to be the difference in the contest.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: QB Jones (out, neck), WR Kenny Golladay (questionable, ribs), WR Sterling Shepard (questionable, quadriceps), WR Kadarius Toney (out, oblique), CB Adoree' Jackson (out, quadriceps)

LAC injuries: WR Allen (out, COVID-19), WR Williams (questionable, COVID-19), RT Bryan Bulaga (IR, back), CB Chris Harris (questionable, COVID-19), CB Asante Samuel (out, concussion)

NYG DFS targets: Barkley $6,000 DK / $7,300 FD (LAC 32nd in rushing DVOA, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed)

LAC DFS targets: none

NYG DFS fades: none

LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC are fifth in third-down conversions at 44.4 percent; NYG are 13th in third-down defense at 38.9 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Barkley racks up 110 combined yards and a score. Glennon throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice. Austin Ekeler picks up 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Herbert throws for 280 yards and TDs to Williams and Jalen Guyton. Chargers 21-10

Detroit (+8.5) at Denver, o/u 42.0 – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Leave it to the Lions to screw up a possible lock on the first overall pick in next year's draft. Last week's win over the Vikings leaves them perilously close to passing the Jags or Texans in the standings, but luckily (?) for them Dan Campbell's inspirational leadership doesn't do much for the players' immune systems. A flu bug has decimated the roster, with a few COVID-19 exposures and "normal" injuries mixed in, and it seems like no position group is going to be at full strength. Jared Goff might be a miracle worker (occasionally), but he's only one man. The Broncos also have a few big names on the injury report, but Melvin Gordon is super motivated to get back onto the field after seeing what Javonte Williams did without him last week. The rookie erupted for 178 scrimmage yards in his first solo run with the top spot in the backfield, and Gordon — who's a free agent in the offseason — is almost assuredly playing for a gig with another club down the stretch. Mind you, Denver still lost that game, but at 6-6 the team is firmly in the playoff hunt in the AFC, even if a tough closing schedule probably makes them a bit of a long shot even for a wild-card spot. It might help their chances if the passing game could get going. Teddy Bridgewater takes most of the blame, but it's not like he isn't taking shots down the field — he's 12th in the league in intended air yards per attempt, ahead of the likes of Kyler Murray, Tom Brady and Dak Prescott. The problem has been that his supposedly talented group of receivers don't do much with the ball after they get it. Bridgewater's pass-catchers are averaging less than five yards after the catch per completion, a mark lower than Goff, Ben Roethlisberger or Ryan Tannehill. Whether that's an issue of their QB not "throwing them open," guys like Jerry Jeudy (82nd in YAC/reception) and Courtland Sutton (155th, fourth lowest among all qualifiers) simply not doing much once they haul in the pass, or Pat Shurmur's scheme not putting them in a position to do much after the catch (or all three), it'll need to be fixed if the Broncos are to take the next step.

The Skinny

DET injuries: RB D'Andre Swift (out, shoulder), RB Jamaal Williams (doubtful, COVID-19), TE T.J. Hockenson (doubtful, hand), LG Jonah Jackson (questionable, illness), C Evan Brown (doubtful, COVID-19), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (questionable, illness), RT Penei Sewell (questionable, shoulder), K Riley Patterson (questionable, illness), LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (out, shoulder), OLB Charles Harris (questionable, illness), S Tracy Walker (doubtful, COVID-19)

DEN injuries: RB Gordon (questionable, hip), OLB Bradley Chubb (questionable, shoulder), CB Bryce Callahan (IR-R, knee) 

DET DFS targets: none

DEN DFS targets: Bridgewater $5,700 DK / $7,200 FD (DET 28th in passing DVOA, 32nd in YPA allowed), Williams $5,900 DK / $6,700 FD and Gordon $5,400 DK / $6,700 FD (DET 28th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB)

DET DFS fades: none

DEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: DET is t-29th in red-zone conversions at 50.0 percent; DEN is ninth in red-zone defense at 53.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the high 50s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Godwin Igwebuike leads the DET backfield with 60 yards. Goff throws for 220 yards and a TD to Josh Reynolds, but he also tosses a pick-six to Justin Simmons. Williams has another big game with 120 scrimmage yards and a score. Bridgewater throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Jeudy. Broncos 24-10

San Francisco at Cincinnati (+1.5), o/u 48.5
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Despite last week's stumble in Seattle, the Niners remain in a wild-card spot in the NFC, though a division title is long out of reach. Rookie Elijah Mitchell has firmly established himself as the new Raheem Mostert — explosive when healthy, but rarely healthy — while Deebo is also having trouble lately staying on the field and building on his massive start to the campaign. That lack of reliable weapons may have played into Jimmy Garoppolo throwing multiple picks last week for only the second time all year, but as long as Jimmy G doesn't feel like he has to win the game himself, he's fine as ... hmm, what's a step up from a bus driver? A limo driver? He's the chauffeur for this offense when everything is clicking. Joe Burrow has been in much the same position for the Bengals in recent weeks, as Joe Mixon has done most of the heavy lifting. The second-year QB hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 8, but even the Chargers managed to bottle up Mixon to some extent last week, so it might be time for Cincy to unleash its passing game again. The Bengals are only one game back of the Ravens atop the AFC North, with a potential wild-card spot to fall back on, but they might be better off trying to chase down Baltimore. This is a franchise that hasn't gotten past the first round of the playoffs in more than 30 years. Every advantage will help.

The Skinny

SF injuries: RB Mitchell (out, concussion), WR Samuel (questionable, groin), DE Dee Ford (IR-R, back), LB Dre Greenlaw (out, groin), CB Emmanuel Moseley (out, ankle)

CIN injuries: RB Mixon (questionable, illness), WR Tee Higgins (questionable, ankle), RG Xavier Su'a-Filo (IR, knee), LB Logan Wilson (out, shoulder), CB Trae Waynes (IR, hamstring), CB Chidobe Awuzie (questionable, foot)

SF DFS targets: George Kittle $6,900 DK / $7,100 FD (CIN 24th in DVOA vs. TE)

CIN DFS targets: Tyler Boyd $5,000 DK / $5,900 FD (SF 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)

SF DFS fades: none

CIN DFS fades: Mixon $7,700 DK / $8,500 FD (SF third in rushing DVOA), C.J. Uzomah $3,000 DK / $5,100 FD (SF first in DVOA vs. TE)

Key stat: CIN is third in red-zone conversions at 69.7 percent; SF is 19th in red-zone defense at 61.9 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jeff Wilson leads the SF backfield with 60 yards and a touchdown. Garoppolo throws for 270 yards and two scores, finding Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. Mixon gets held to 60 yards. Burrow erupts for 330 yards and four TDs, finding Higgins twice and Ja'Marr Chase and Boyd once each. Bengals 31-24

Buffalo (+3.5) at Tampa Bay, o/u 53.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Bills have just about run out of excuses. Statistically, they remain among the best teams in the league, but in the actual standings, they're now staring up at the Pats, and they haven't won even two games in a row since Weeks 2-5. I guess that bodes well for this matchup if you think the pattern will hold, but looking back over their schedule, their only "good" win was that Week 5 victory over Kansas City, which makes me highly suspicious of those impressive stats. Defenses are making an effort to keep Josh Allen in the pocket and let him make mistakes, and it's working, as he had an 8:7 TD:INT in the four games prior to last week's wind-swept defeat. Somebody needs to step up for Buffalo, and Stefon Diggs can't do it without Allen, and no one else (at least on offense) seems capable. The Bucs are cruising, winning three straight to all but lock up the NFC South while staying within striking distance of the Cards for the top seed in the conference. That winning streak coincided with the return of Rob Gronkowski, and while you can try to come up with scheme excuses for why that is, I think it's just a comfort thing for Tom Brady. Knowing where his long-time tight end's going to be on every play gives him more freedom to hit his other reads and let them develop if he needs to. This offense has scored 30-plus in every game with Gronkowski back, and while my algorithm says one thing here, bet against Brady when he smells home-field advantage in the playoffs at your peril.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: LG Jon Feliciano (IR-R, calf)

TB injuries: WR Antonio Brown (out, suspension), C Ryan Jensen (questionable, ankle), S Jordan Whitehead (out, calf)

BUF DFS targets: none

TB DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Emmanuel Sanders $4,900 DK / $5,800 FD (TB third in DVOA vs. WR2)

TB DFS fades: Brady $7,600 DK / $8,200 FD (BUF first passing DVOA, first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, first in TD% allowed), Mike Evans $6,600 DK / $7,200 FD (BUF fourth in DVOA vs. WR1), Chris Godwin $7,100 DK / $7,700 FD (BUF second in DVOA vs. WR2), Tyler Johnson $3,200 DK / $4,700 FD (BUF third in DVOA vs. WR3)

Key stat: BUF is second in third-down conversions at 48.4 percent; TB is 24th in third-down defense at 42.2 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Zack Moss leads the BUF backfield with 50 yards. Allen throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Diggs and Dawson Knox. Leonard Fournette manages 70 yards. Brady throws for 290 yards and two scores, hitting Gronk and Evans, but he also gets picked off twice. Bills 20-14

Chicago (+12.5) at Green Bay, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

I mean, look. No one expects the Bears to win this one. I don't think even the Bears expect to win this one. Aaron Rodgers has their number, and while the whole "I own you" thing from back in Week 6 might serve as a motivating spark, it also might secretly just be lodged in their subconscious, since every Chicago player who's played in this rivalry more than a couple times knows it's 100 percent been true. Plus, it's not like they're playing well against everybody else — they have four wins all year, and two came against Detroit. Still, the show must go on, and who knows? This is the NF(IS)L, the No Favorite Is Safe League. Andy Dalton's most recent run as the starter seems like it will end on a whimper after his four-pick performance last week against the Cardinals, as Justin Fields re-takes the reins. Fields is still more runner than passer, but he does like to chuck it out into space and see if Darnell Mooney can run under it, so maybe that'll let them keep pace. The Packers lost two of their last four before their bye, but road defeats in Kansas City and Minnesota aren't the end of the world, and their hold on the NFC North is still firm. They also hold a win over the Cards, which could matter in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Everything is pretty much going according to plan on offense — Rodgers is firing multiple TDs almost every week, AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones are a load in the backfield, and Davante Adams is mostly uncoverable. Just about every other NFC heavyweight (Rams, Bucs, Niners and Cards) has hung 30-plus on the Bears, so it's probably the Packers' turn.

The Skinny

CHI injuries: QB Dalton (doubtful, hand), RB Tarik Cohen (out, knee), WR Marquise Goodwin (doubtful, foot), RT Germain Ifedi (IR, knee), DE Akiem Hicks (questionable, ankle)

GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (out, groin), LT David Bakhtiari (out, knee), LT Elgton Jenkins (IR, knee), C Josh Myers (IR, knee), LB De'Vondre Campbell (questionable, illness), OLB Za'Darius Smith (IR, back), CB Jaire Alexander (IR, shoulder)

CHI DFS targets: Cole Kmet $3,600 DK / $5,100 FD and Jimmy Graham $3,000 DK / $4,800 FD (GB 27th in DVOA vs. TE)

GB DFS targets: Adams $8,600 DK / $8,400 FD (CHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR1)

CHI DFS fades: Damiere Byrd $3,300 DK / $4,900 FD (GB second in DVOA vs. WR3)

GB DFS fades: none

Key stat: GB is 10th in third-down conversions at 41.8 percent; CHI is 18th in third-down defense at 40.7 percent

Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 GB, average score 26-17 GB, average margin of victory 10 points. GB has won five straight meetings, including a 24-14 victory in Week 6

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 30s, 13 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: David Montgomery gains 70 yards. Fields throws for 210 yards and a TD to Graham. Jones leads the GB backfield with 80 yards and a score, while Dillon also gets into the end zone. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and three touchdowns, finding Adams (who tops 100 yards) twice and Allen Lazard once. Packers 38-13

Pittsburgh (+3) at Minnesota, o/u 43.5 – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

Just call them the Stealers, because they keep on stealing wins. I don't even disagree with the call John Harbaugh made last week to go for two and the win — getting into the end zone from the two-yard line when Lamar Jackson is your QB should have better odds than relying on coin tosses and a gutted secondary in OT — but when the game comes down to one play, stars tend to shine, and it was T.J. Watt and not Jackson who came through. Pittsburgh's still very much in the playoff chase, both for an AFC North title or a wild card, but it will have to earn it down the stretch as it have no real soft spots left on the schedule. This game should set up for a big Najee Harris performance, but the state of the team's interior offensive line may give him even less room to work with than usual. The Vikings are in some ways the anti-Steelers, in that they keep finding ways to give away wins. Maybe handing the Lions their first victory was just an early holiday present or something, an act of charity toward the downtrodden. Minnesota's only played one game all year that wasn't decided by a single score, so I'm always skeptical when what I mockingly call an algorithm spits out a big win for the Vikes, but on paper they certainly have the talent. Adam Thielen is out but they might get Dalvin Cook back, though even if he suits up it's not clear how effective he'll be or what his workload will look like. If they've done one thing well this year though, it's keep Kirk Cousins upright — Minnesota is tied for second in the league in fewest sacks allowed and Is second in sack percentage allowed, so they might just be able to keep Watt from making an impact again.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: LG Kevin Dotson (IR, ankle), LG J.C. Hassenauer (IR, pectoral), LG Joe Haeg (questionable, COVID-19), C B.J. Finney (out, back), DE Stephon Tuitt (IR, undisclosed), CB Joe Haden (out, foot)

MIN injuries: RB Cook (questionable, shoulder), WR Thielen (out, ankle), LT Christian Darrisaw (questionable, ankle), DE Everson Griffen (out, personal)

PIT DFS targets: Harris (MIN 29th in rushing DVOA, 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in YPC allowed), Chase Claypool (MIN 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)

MIN DFS targets: Cook and Alexander Mattison (PIT 24th in rushing DVOA, 27th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPC allowed, t-25th in rushing TDs allowed)

PIT DFS fades: none

MIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT is ninth in third-down conversions at 42.5 percent; MIN is seventh in third-down defense at 36.1 percent

Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Harris grinds out 90 yards and a touchdown. Ben Roethlisberger throws for 250 yards and a TD to Claypool. Cook plays and gains 60 yards and a score, while Mattison adds 50 yards and a TD of his own. Cousins throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Justin Jefferson (who tops 100 yards) and Tyler Conklin. Vikings 31-20

Last week's record: 9-5, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 o/u
2021 regular-season record: 121-72-1, 105-88-1 ATS, 88-104-2 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1235-744-7, 964-955-67 ATS, 698-748-28 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)