NFL Game Previews: Monday Broncos-Seahawks Matchup

Denver at Seattle (+6.5), o/u 44.0 – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT

What would Seattle's home opener be without Russell Wilson? Of course, he's in a different uniform this time, and that's just going to be weird for a while yet. The Broncos seem to be going all in, though, trading for Wilson to be the franchise QB they've lacked since Peyton Manning broke down. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett has plenty of experience building around a Hall of Fame quarterback, as he was Green Bay's offensive coordinator the last few years, and Wilson has a lot of talent around him, including the kind of two-headed backfield Hackett seemed to prefer with the Packers. If Bradley Chubb and newcomer Randy Gregory can stay on the field and give the pass rush a boost, it's not out of the question for Denver to be right there with Kansas City and the Chargers at the top of the AFC West this season.

The Seahawks will attempt to replace Wilson with either Geno Smith or Drew Lock, which, well, yeah. Pete Carroll will just be happy he won't have to hear anyone complain he's not "letting Geno cook" or whatever, but a return to an even more run-heavy scheme puts an awful lot of pressure on a lead RB who can't stay healthy (Rashaad Penny) and a rookie backup/eventual replacement who didn't even make it to Week 1 before needing surgery (Kenneth Walker). There's still talent on the outside in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, but I simply don't trust Carroll to feature them, even if I trusted whoever's under center to find them. Seattle will be in "grind it out and keep it close" mode all season, and oh, did I mention Bobby Wagner's gone? Jordyn Brooks is a fine enough replacement, but this isn't a defense that figures to worry anyone.

The Skinny

DEN injuries: WR KJ Hamler (questionable, knee), WR Tim Patrick (IR, knee), RT Billy Turner (questionable, knee), EDGE Gregory (questionable, shoulder), LB Josey Jewell (questionable, calf)
SEA injuries: RB Walker (questionable, abdomen), LG Damien Lewis (questionable, ankle)

DEN DFS targets: Wilson $6,800 DK / $7,500 FD (SEA 26th in passing DVOA, 31st in passing yards per game allowed in 2021), Javonte Williams $6,400 DK / $6,200 FD (SEA 32nd in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)
SEA DFS targets: none

DEN DFS fades: none
SEA DFS fades: none

Key stat: SEA third in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 64.6 percent with Wilson under center; DEN third in red-zone defense at 48.8 percent

Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Williams leads the DEN backfield with 100 combined yards and a touchdown, while Melvin Gordon adds 60 yards. Wilson throws for 290 yards and two TDs, finding Courtland Sutton and Albert Okwuegbunam. Penny compiles 80 yards and two scores. Smith throws for 230 yards and a TD to Lockett. Broncos 27-24

New Orleans at Atlanta (+5.5), o/u 42.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Saints just missed on a playoff spot last year with Alvin Kamara playing a career-low 13 games, Jameis Winston suiting up for only seven and Michael Thomas getting on the field for zero, so you have to like their chances of taking a big step forward in 2022 if they have better luck on the injury front. New Orleans has beefed up its skill personnel even further by bringing in one-time LSU standout Jarvis Landry and drafting Chris Olave in the first round, so there's no excuse for this team to finish 28th in yards and 19th in points again. Heck, Wil Lutz is even back to handle the kicking. A stout defense kept the team afloat in 2021, and with longtime defensive coordinator Dennis Allen taking over as head coach and Tyrann Mathieu joining the secondary, that unit should remain a strength. Pete Carmichael is still offensive coordinator too, a position he's held since 2009, so while Sean Payton may be physically gone from the building, his scheme lingers on.

On the other hand, the Falcons are still in the early stages of a full teardown and rebuild, having sent Matt Ryan to the Colts in the offseason. Third-round pick Desmond Ridder may or may not be the QB of the future for the franchise, but Marcus Mariota will be under center for now, and the 28-year-old hasn't started a game in the regular season since 2019. He can scramble a little, but his passing numbers during his Tennessee tenure were never that great — in his four full seasons as the Titans' starter, he reached 20 passing TDs only once — and while Atlanta has begun assembling some interesting skill-positions players in Kyle Pitts and 2022 first-round pick Drake London, this could be one of the most underpowered offenses in the league. Coach Arthur Smith was on the staff in Tennessee when Mariota was drafted, so he should at least be familiar with his strengths and weaknesses, but minimizing weaknesses won't be enough to compensate for an Atlanta defense that finished 30th in points allowed last season. The team brought in some veteran help for the unit in Casey Hayward, Rashaan Evans, and others, but they won't do much more than staunch the bleeding.

The Skinny

NO injuries: WR Thomas (questionable, hamstring), WR Tre'Quan Smith (out, groin), LT Trevor Penning (IR, toe), CB Paulson Adebo (out, ankle), S Mathieu (questionable, illness)
ATL injuries: WR Calvin Ridley (out, suspension), WR London (questionable, knee), LB Deion Jones (IR, shoulder), CB Isaiah Oliver (IR, knee)

NO DFS targets: Kamara $7,600 DK / $8,500 FD (ATL 29th in rushing DVOA in 2021), Landry $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)
ATL DFS targets: none

NO DFS fades: none
ATL DFS fades: Cordarrelle Patterson $5,800 DK / $6,600 FD (NO first in rushing DVOA, fourth in rushing yards per game, third in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021), Falcons DST $2,800 DK / $3,600 FD (32nd in sacks, 30th in points per game allowed in 2021)

Key stat: ATL was 24th in red-zone conversions at 53.7 percent in 2021; NO was first in red-zone defense at 43.5 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NO, average score 25-20 NO, average margin of victory nine points. NO has won four straight road meetings, and is 4-1 in Mercedes-Benz Stadium since it opened in 2017

The Scoop: Kamara scampers for 90 combined yards and a score. Winston throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Landry and Olave. Patterson manages 50 combined yards. Mariota throws for 220 yards and hits Olamide Zaccheaus for a TD. Saints 24-10

Cleveland (+1.5) at Carolina, o/u 41.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

If there's one group of people who absolutely loved all the QB movement this offseason, it was conspiracy theorists who believe the entire NFL is scripted and fixed. Baker Mayfield versus the Browns is just one of three potential Week 1 revenge games (along with Russell Wilson against the Seahawks and, if you really stretch it, Joe Flacco vs. the Ravens), but really, it's fantasy experts who he should be looking for revenge against. Mayfield got tossed in the trash bin after a poor 2021 despite the fact he was playing through a shoulder injury (his non-throwing shoulder, but it still requires surgery after the season) in a run-first and run-second offense, and oh yeah, he played some of his home games in gale force winds by the lake in Cleveland. I'm fairly sure we haven't actually seen what the 27-year-old is really capable of yet, and while Carolina's offense also prioritizes its backfield stud, Christian McCaffrey can do a lot more for Mayfield's passing numbers than Nick Chubb or even Kareem Hunt did. Add a decent collection of receivers headlined by DJ Moore, and the fifth-year QB might just reach 4,000 passing yards for once.

The Browns' decision to oust Mayfield in favor of Deshaun Watson has already bitten the franchise in the butt, but they might be able to weather the 11-game suspension he agreed to. Jacoby Brissett is a below-average replacement, but hey, they didn't rely on their passing game even after dropping the first overall pick in 2018 on Mayfield, so not much will change. Chubb and Hunt will see a heavy workload, and the team will try to scratch out wins on the ground via a Myles Garrett-led defense. Cleveland finished second last season in yards per play allowed, but Carolina finished third, so this one could come down to which defense can make the most splash plays and hand its offense a short field or two.

The Skinny

CLE injuries: QB Watson (out, suspension), RT Jack Conklin (questionable, knee), RT Chris Hubbard (questionable, elbow), DE Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, illness/elbow), S Grant Delpit (questionable, hip)
CAR injuries: K Zane Gonzalez (IR, groin)

CLE DFS targets: Browns DST $3,800 DK / $4,300 FD (CAR 28th in sacks allowed, t-29th in giveaways in 2021)
CAR DFS targets: none

CLE DFS fades: Brissett $5,200 DK / $6,300 FD (CAR fourth in passing yards per game allowed in 2021)
CAR DFS fades: none

Key stat: CAR 25th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 53.2 percent; CLE 27th in red-zone defense at 65.4 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 30-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Chubb leads the CLE backfield with 70 yards and a touchdown, while Hunt adds 60 combined yards and a score. Brissett throws for less than 200 yards. McCaffrey piles up 110 combined yards and a TD. Mayfield throws for 240 yards and a score, finding Moore. Panthers 23-17

San Francisco at Chicago (+7), o/u 40.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

While it doesn't have the hype of some other recent young QB matchups, this game does feature a clash of the third and 11th overall picks in the 2021 draft, both of whom can do serious damage with their legs even if their arms are more of a question. Trey Lance takes over as the 49ers starter after what was essentially a redshirt season, one that was made more difficult by a broken finger on his throwing hand that he didn't really tell anyone about. That helps explain his sub-60 percent completion rate, and if he's healthy and more confident in his passing in general, Lance could well wind up being one of 2022's biggest breakouts. It helps when you have guys like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to throw to, and a Kyle Shanahan backfield will be productive on the ground regardless of whether Elijah Mitchell breaks the recent pattern of one-and-done starters for the Niners, who haven't had a player repeat as their rushing leader since Carlos Hyde (2015-17), or someone else has to step up yet again.

Justin Fields is the cautionary downside for Lance boosters if his passing doesn't develop as hoped. Yeah, Fields rushed for 420 yards in 12 games last season, but he threw for less than 2,000 with a 7:10 TD:INT, which is very far from acceptable in the modern NFL. The struggles of the Chicago offense in general cost Matt Nagy his job, and in his place as head coach steps former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, who brought in Luke Getsy — quarterbacks coach in Green Bay the last three seasons — to run the offense. Fields' skill set isn't exactly comparable to Aaron Rodgers', and for that matter, Getsy's failure to develop Jordan Love behind Rodgers is kind of worrisome, so it's hard to get too excited about the young QB's potential upside in 2022. The front office hasn't surrounded Fields with an abundance of talent, either. Allen Robinson is gone and  was replaced with a grab bag of depth receivers that are the football equivalent of the tchotchkes left over at the end of a garage sale. Maybe someone like Byron Pringle or Equanimeous St. Brown emerges as a decent No. 2 WR behind Darnell Mooney, who himself isn't exactly a sure-fire No. 1, but in all likelihood the Bears will get what they paid for.

The Skinny

SF injuries: TE Kittle (questionable, groin), S Jimmie Ward (IR, hamstring)
CHI injuries: WR Velus Jones (doubtful, hamstring)

SF DFS targets: Lance $6,000 DK / $7,500 FD (CHI t-30th in passing TDs allowed, t-31st in rushing TDs allowed to QBs in 2021), Jauan Jennings $3,100 DK / $4,900 FD (CHI 31st in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021), 49ers DST $4,100 DK / $5,000 FD (t-5th in sacks in 2021, CHI 32nd in sacks allowed in 2021)
CHI DFS targets: Mooney $5,700 DK / (SF 30th in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021)

SF DFS fades: none
CHI DFS fades: David Montgomery $6,000 DK / $6,200 FD (SF second in rushing DVOA, seventh in yards per carry allowed in 2021), Cole Kmet $3,700 DK / $5,000 FD (SF fifth in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

Key stat: SF first in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 66.7 percent; CHI 13th in red-zone defense at 55.6 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, 9-10 mph wind, 15-45 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mitchell picks up 90 yards and a TD. Lance throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Samuel and Jennings, and he adds 40 yards and a score on the ground. Montgomery manages 70 yards. Fields throws for 230 yards and a TD to Mooney while also running in a score, but he also gets sacked four times. 49ers 34-20

Pittsburgh (+6.5) at Cincinnati, o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

This AFC North rivalry was once one-sided in the Steelers' favor. They won 11 consecutive meetings between 2015 and 2020, including an 18-16 victory in the wild-card round of the 2015 season that marked the last of Marvin Lewis' five straight playoff one-and-done's as coach of the Bengals. Those days are gone, though, and Ben Roethlisberger with them. Mitch Trubisky is now under center for Pittsburgh as the 2017 second overall pick tries to salvage his career, but a career 6.7 YPA doesn't exactly seem promising. He does have a fairly talented offense around him, though, even if Diontae Johnson is battling a shoulder injury. Najee Harris can take plenty of pressure off his QB, while Chase Claypool, rookie George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth have upside as targets. If Trubisky can just be a competent game-manager and limit his mistakes, and the T.J. Watt-led defense plays up to its potential, this could still be a postseason-caliber team. If Trubisky flops, though, and rookie Kenny Pickett or (gulp) Mason Rudolph is forced to take over, things could get ugly.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are very much set at QB with Joe Burrow, and the Cincinnati roster has made upgrades on the squad that nearly won the Super Bowl last season. Hayden Hurst solidifies the TE spot, not that Burrow needs more weapons, and La'el Collins headlines improvements to the offensive line. A defense that started to come together in the second half of 2021 also got better on paper in the offseason, adding safety Dax Hill in the first round as the Bengals used their first three picks on that side of the ball. Cincy's won three straight since taking over as the bully in this rivalry, and those roles don't seem likely to switch back in Week 1.

The Skinny

PIT injuries: none
CIN injuries: CB Cam Taylor-Britt (IR, abdomen)

PIT DFS targets: Steelers DST $2,400 DK / $3,500 FD (first in sacks in 2021, CIN 30th in sacks allowed in 2021)
CIN DFS targets: Joe Mixon $7,100 DK / $8,300 FD (PIT 32nd in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in yards per carry allowed in 2021)

PIT DFS fades: none
CIN DFS fades: none

Key stat: PIT 23rd in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 54.0 percent; CIN 19th in red-zone defense at 60.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 PIT, average score 20-18 PIT, average margin of victory 14 points. CIN has won three straight meetings by an average score of 31-12

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris collects 90 combined yards and a TD. Trubisky throws for 240 yards and a score to Freiermuth but gets picked off twice. Mixon erupts for 120 combined yards and two touchdowns. Burrow throws for 270 yards and two TDs, finding Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Bengals 28-20

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4), o/u 48.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Eagles were anointed one of the big winners of the offseason, adding A.J. Brown as a legit No. 1 receiver for Jalen Hurts, snagging James Bradberry from the Giants to bolster the secondary and drafting Jordan Davis in the first round to help wreck stuff in the trenches with Fletcher Cox. There's talent up and down the roster, but Hurts' development remains the key to the team's prospects. He took a significant step forward as a passer in his second NFL season, and the parallels to Josh Allen's development are encouraging to say the least, but at this stage of his career Hurts still seems more scrambler than thrower. Having Brown at the other end of his passes might boost his confidence, but it's not like Philly wasn't devoting resources to the receiving corps prior to making that trade with Tennessee. DeVonta Smith is coming off a strong rookie campaign, and Dallas Goedert is probably the best tight end in the NFC East.

Dan Campbell's Lions may have been biting kneecaps last year, but only because they couldn't get up off the ground to aim any higher. Three (and a half) wins is territory Detroit fans are used to, and with Jared Goff under contract through 2024, it's hard to see much light at the end of the tunnel. Goff's deal is structured so that he doesn't carry much of a dead cap hit after this season though, so assuming they land another high draft pick in a QB-rich 2023 class, this could be his last year in blue and silver. There are building blocks on the roster already, especially on defense in Aidan Hutchinson and 2020 third overall pick Jeff Okudah, who's played only 10 games in his career but might finally be healthy enough to bolster the secondary. Depth remains an issue, though, and while Goff has some solid skill players around him, no one really stands out as a true star at their position. Six of the Lions' 13 losses last year came by a single score, but don't expect many of those to flip over into the win column just yet.

The Skinny

PHI injuries: none
DET injuries: WR Jameson Williams (out, knee), C Frank Ragnow (questionable, groin), RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (IR, back), RG Tommy Kraemer (out, back), EDGE Romeo Okwara (out. Achilles)

PHI DFS targets: Hurts $6,800 DK / $8,000 FD (DET 30th in yards per attempt allowed, t-30th in passing TDs allowed in 2021), Kenneth Gainwell $4,600 DK / $5,300 FD (DET 31st in rushing DVOA, 31st in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021), Goedert $4,500 DK / $5,700 FD (DET 29th in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)
DET DFS targets: none

PHI DFS fades: none
DET DFS fades: Lions DST $2,000 DK / $3,100 FD (30th in sacks, 31st in points per game allowed, PHI fifth in giveaways in 2021)

Key stat: PHI fourth in third-down conversions in 2021 at 45.7 percent; DET 29th in third-down defense at 45.1 percent

The Scoop: Miles Sanders picks up 60 yards, but Gainwell leads the PHI backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Hurts throws for 270 yards and two more scores, hitting Goedert and Brown (who tops 100 yards). D'Andre Swift manages 70 combined yards. Goff throws for 250 yards and two touchdowns of his own to DJ Chark and T.J. Hockenson, and a Maurice Alexander kickoff return to the house keeps things close. Eagles 27-24

Indianapolis at Houston (+7.5), o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

The Colts have stuck with a rent-a-QB philosophy ever since Andrew Luck's surprising retirement, going from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz to now Matt Ryan after liberating the former MVP from a floundering Falcons franchise to take one more run at a Super Bowl. The 37-year-old might have a couple years left in him too, as he nearly threw for 4,000 yards in 2021 despite having absolutely nobody to throw to, and he's missed only one game to injury the last 12 seasons. (Indy fans are all frantically knocking on wood.) The Colts don't need Ryan to carry the load on offense, of course — they have Jonathan Taylor for that. The third-year back erupted for more than 2,000 scrimmage yards and 20 TDs last year as he took home the rushing crown, and there's been no suggestion from coach Frank Reich that his workload is going to get dialed back after he saw 372 touches in 2021. A better effort from the defense and fewer nailbiters might help give Taylor some breathers during the regular season, and the front office did bring in help on that side of the ball in Yannick Ngakoue and Stephon Gilmore, two veterans with spotty injury histories looking to prove their best days aren't behind them. Add (don't call him Darius) Shaquille Leonard to the pile of key defenders who will need to stay on the field for the Colts' roster to reach its full potential.

The Texans are in full rebuild mode, and it showed last season in their games against the Colts — a 31-3 shellacking in Week 6 that got followed up by a somehow even worse 31-0 shutout in Week 13. This AFC South rivalry has been one-sided in recent years, but at least Houston used to keep things close. Sheesh. 2021 third-round pick Davis Mills is getting a chance to show he's the QB of the future, and he looked quite competent down the stretch as a rookie, posting a 68.4 percent completion rate, 7.4 YPA and 9:2 TD:INT over his final five starts. There's some talent on the other end of Mills' passes, as Brandin Cooks has proven he can be productive in any scheme and with any QB, while second-year wideout Nico Collins has been a popular preseason sleeper pick. 2022 fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce also won the starting job in the backfield this preseason, so on offense the pieces may just about be in place. As for the defensive side of the ball for the Texans ... err, well, maybe we should talk about the offense some more.

The Skinny

IND injuries: LB Leonard (out, back)
HOU injuries: none

IND DFS targets: Taylor $9,100 DK / $10,200 FD (HOU 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, 31st in rushing TDs allowed in 2021), Parris Campbell $3,300 DK / $5,200 FD (HOU 28th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021), Mo Alie-Cox $3,400 DK / $4,800 FD (HOU 32nd in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)
HOU DFS targets: none

IND DFS fades: none
HOU DFS fades: Pierce $4,800 DK / $5,400 FD (IND third in rushing DVOA, t-3rd in rushing TDs allowed in 2021), Collins $4,200 DK / $5,200 FD (IND second in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)

Key stat: IND 12th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 41.0 percent; HOU 26th in third-down defense at 43.2 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 9-2 IND including playoffs, average score 26-16 IND, average margin of victory 11 points. IND has won four straight meetings and swept last season's series by a combined score of 62-3

The Scoop: Taylor gallops for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan has a quiet debut for IND, throwing for 240 yards. Pierce pieces together 70 yards. Mills throws for 270 yards and two TDs, hitting Cooks and Brevin Jordan, but his late comeback attempt falls short. Colts 20-17

New England (+3.5) at Miami, o/u 46.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

It took all of one season without Tom Brady for Bill Belichick to get the Patriots back on track. It's largely been forgotten in the wake of their playoff thumping at the hands of the Bills, but this was a 10-win team in 2021, and they got there with a rookie quarterback under center. Mac Jones didn't exactly post dynamic numbers last year, but he was pretty solid and did what he was asked to do, leading to a 67.6 percent completion rate and only 13 INTs in 17 games even if his volume stats weren't impressive. The two-headed backfield of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson did most of the heavy lifting, combining for 20 rushing TDs, and that's not likely to change much this season even if the Pats did bring in DeVante Parker to help out Jones. In theory the scheme could see some major alterations with Josh McDaniels now running things in Vegas and, uhh, somebody else calling plays in New England, but it's still Belichick running the show at the end of the day.

The Dolphins also have a new head coach in Mike McDaniel after Brian Flores burned every bridge in Miami on his way out, and he too has a young, Alabama-trained QB to pin his hopes on. Tua Tagovailoa took some baby steps forward last year, but he'll need to show a lot more progress in 2022 after the team opened up the checkbook for Tyreek Hill. McDaniel comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, so an offense built around speed — whether it's out of the backfield with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert or after the catch with Hill and Jaylen Waddle — could compete in a tough AFC East, but this could also be a unit that proves to be much less than the sun of its parts if Tua turns out not to be the guy. The same could be said for the defense Flores left behind, which features some big contracts in the secondary but was firmly in the middle of the pack statistically last year.

The Skinny

NE injuries: RB Ty Montgomery (questionable, knee), WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable, knee), WR Tyquan Thornton (IR, collarbone), RT Isaiah Wynn (questionable, back)
MIA injuries: CB Byron Jones (out, ankle)

NE DFS targets: Kendrick Bourne $4,200 DK / $5,100 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021), Hunter Henry $3,800 DK / $5,400 FD (MIA 30th in DVOA vs. TE in 2021), Patriots DST $2,700 DK / $3,900 FD (second in points per game allowed, t-3rd in takeaways in 2021, MIA t-27th in giveaways in 2021)
MIA DFS targets: Edmonds $5,200 DK / $5,800 FD (NE 29th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)

NE DFS fades: none
MIA DFS fades: Tagovailoa $5,700 DK / $7,000 FD (NE second in passing yards per game allowed, second YPA allowed, fourth in passing TDs allowed in 2021), Hill $6,800 DK / $7,700 FD (NE second in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021), Mike Gesicki $4,800 DK / $5,500 FD (NE first in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

Key stat: MIA 13th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 61.2 percent; NE second in red-zone defense at 47.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 MIA, average score 27-20 NE, average margin of victory 13 points. MIA swept the season series last year for the first time since 2000

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 90s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Harris runs for 90 yards and a TD, while Stevenson adds 70 combined yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and a score to Henry. Edmonds leads the MIA backfield with 90 combined yards and a touchdown. Tua throws for 260 yards and a TD to Waddle but gets picked off twice. Patriots 23-14

Baltimore at N.Y. Jets (+7), o/u 44.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

We're so used to the Ravens being a tough, competitive playoff team that it's easy to forget this squad not only failed to make the postseason last year, they didn't even have a winning record. Yeah, there are no easy matchups in the NFC North, and Baltimore had entire position groups wiped out by injuries in 2021, but still. The roster is only marginally healthier heading into Week 1, with the status of J.K. Dobbins being a particularly big question, but it's Lamar Jackson's contract that might be the biggest cloud hanging over the Ravens. The quarterback is in the final year of his rookie deal and the front office couldn't reach an agreement on an extension with him before the season started, which Jackson had set as the deadline. The franchise tag probably awaits in the offseason, but that's only a temporary solution, and the last thing the team needs is a disgruntled franchise QB. The Browns got a lot of flack for fully guaranteeing Deshaun Watson's deal, but if that's now what's causing Jackson to reject the Ravens' offers, it could wind up looking like a brilliant bit of fourth-dimensional chess by Cleveland to sabotage a division rival.

Every week is a good week for a Flacco Bowl! The former Raven will fill in as the Jets' starter while Zach Wilson is on the mend after a preseason knee injury, and given how Wilson looked as a rookie, that could be an upgrade for the New York passing game. Flacco has a lot of talent to throw to in 2021 34th overall pick Elijah Moore, 2017 fifth overall pick Corey Davis and 2022 10th overall pick Garrett Wilson, but none have exactly lived up to their pedigrees in the NFL as of yet. Breece Hall and Michael Carter are also a potentially dangerous backfield duo, and the Jets' offense could wind up being surprisingly productive this year no matter who is under center, assuming an injury-wracked offensive line doesn't completely collapse.

The Skinny

BAL injuries: RB Dobbins (questionable, knee), RB Gus Edwards (out, knee), LT Ronnie Stanley (doubtful, ankle), CB Marcus Peters (questionable, knee)
NYJ injuries: QB Wilson (out, knee), LT Duane Brown (out, shoulder), LT Conor McDermott (questionable, ankle), RT George Fant (questionable, knee), RT Mekhi Becton (IR, knee), CB D.J. Reed (questionable, knee)

BAL DFS targets: Jackson $7,300 DK / $8,500 FD (NYJ 32nd in passing DVOA, 30th in passing yards per game allowed, 30th in YPA allowed in 2021), Demarcus Robinson $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (NYJ 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021), Mark Andrews $6,800 DK / $7,900 FD (NYJ 31st in DVOA vs. TE in 2021), Kenyan Drake $5,000 DK / $5,700 FD (NYJ 29th in rushing yards per game allowed, 32nd in rushing TDs allowed, 28th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)
NYJ DFS targets: Flacco $4,800 DK / $6,200 FD (BAL 30th in passing DVOA, 32nd in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in YPA allowed in 2021), Davis $4,900 DK / $5,400 FD (BAL 29th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021), Carter $5,100 DK / $5,200 FD (BAL 30th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)

BAL DFS fades: none
NYJ DFS fades: Hall $5,500 DK / $6,400 FD (BAL first in rushing yards per game allowed, third in YPC allowed in 2021)

Key stat: NYJ 27th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 36.3 percent; BAL third in third-down defense in 2021 at 34.8 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mike Davis runs for 60 yards, but Drake leads the BAL backfield with 80 yards and a score. Jackson throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, finding Andrews (who tops 100 yards) twice. Carter leads the NYJ backfield with 70 combined yards and a TD. Flacco throws for 290 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Davis and Moore, but he also throws two picks, one of which Chuck Clark returns to the house. Ravens 28-27

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Washington, o/u 43.5 – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Urban who? The Jaguars are just going to try to pretend 2021 never happened, but that one disastrous hire could have some long-lasting effects on the franchise, particularly when it comes to Trevor Lawrence's development. Not many QBs have had rookie seasons as downright awful as his and bounced back to become elite. (There are some superficial statistical similarities to Peyton Manning's rookie year, but the league environment has changed just a wee bit in the quarter century since.) I'm not writing off Lawrence by any means, and Doug Pederson and his staff should provide him with the kind of stability he'll need to get back on track, but he's by no means a "sure thing" any more. The second-year QB should at least have a solid cast of skill players around him as Travis Etienne returns from a redshirt rookie season due to a foot injury, and the receiving corps gets bolstered by Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Stonehands Evan Engram. None are true No. 1 targets, but it should be a better and deeper group than he had to work with last season.

The Commanders tried to fix their own quarterback issues by giving Carson Wentz his third chance after he got ridden out of Philadelphia and Indianapolis on rails. It's somewhat incredible to think Wentz was probably headed for an MVP award in 2017 before he got hurt, though Jacksonville fans might be encouraged by the fact it was Pederson who guided him to his best campaign yet. The 29-year-old's numbers have plummeted the last three years — 61.6 percent completion rate and 6.6 YPA in 45 games — but it's his decision-making that really soured his last two teams on him. Wentz doesn't just throw INTs (29 in those 45 games), he throws back-breaking INTs. Washington's season is already off to an ominous start due to the Brian Robinson shooting, and a couple late-game picks into triple coverage could send things spiraling quickly. The Commanders (I really need an abbreviation for that, but the Comms is just weird and awkward. Maybe I'll start calling them the WFC, the Washington Football Commanders, just as another reminder of how badly Dan Snyder has messed up the franchise and its name) have some talent, from Terry McLaurin to the defensive line, but probably not enough to right the ship if they have to deal with early adversity.

The Skinny

JAC injuries: none
WAS injuries: RB Robinson (out, knee/lower body), TE Logan Thomas (questionable, knee), DE Chase Young (out, knee), S Kamren Curl (out, thumb)

JAC DFS targets: Lawrence $5,600 DK / $7,000 FD (WAS 29th in passing yards per game allowed, 32nd in passing TDs allowed in 2021), Marvin Jones $4,400 DK / $5,500 FD (WAS 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)
WAS DFS targets: Wentz $5,500 DK / $6,800 FD (JAC 31st in passing DVOA in 2021), McLaurin $6,500 DK / $7,000 FD (JAC 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021), Jahan Dotson $3,400 DK / $4,900 FD (JAC 30th in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021)

JAC DFS fades: Jaguars DST $2,500 DK / $3,600 FD (32nd in takeaways, 28th in points allowed per game in 2021)
WAS DFS fades: J.D. McKissic $5,100 DK / $5,200 FD (JAC second in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)

Key stat: JAC 28th in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 51.3 percent; WAS 17th in red-zone defense at 59.3 percent

Weather forecast: overcast, temperature in the mid-70s, less than 10 mph wind, 25-40 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Etienne has a solid, belated debut with 80 yards and a touchdown. Lawrence throws for 300 yards and three TDs, hitting MJones twice and Kirk once. Antonio Gibson gains 70 yards, but Jonathan Williams vultures a short score. Wentz throws for 310 yards and two touchdowns, finding McLaurin (who tops 100 yards) twice, but he also gets picked off twice. A late missed FG by Riley Patterson saves Washington's bacon. Commanders 30-28

N.Y. Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee, o/u 43.5 - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Brian Daboll has his work cut out for him. The last decade — a convenient cutoff point, since the Giants won the Super Bowl in 2011 — they've been the worst team in the NFC East, making the playoffs once (even Washington's done it twice) while managing to win zero division titles and posting only one other season above .500. Big Blue's reeled off five consecutive losing campaigns and chewed through four head coaches doing it. The hope is that Daboll can do for Daniel Jones what he did for Josh Allen, but he was coaching Allen from the moment he was drafted. Jones already has three seasons of bad habits and conflicting advice rattling around in his head. Really, hope is all the Giants have this season. There certainly isn't a strong analytical basis for thinking Kenny Golladay and/or Saquon Barkley will turn back the clock to 2019, or Wan'Dale Robinson or Kadarius Toney will click.

It's not quite accurate to say the Titans didn't miss a beat after Derrick Henry got hurt last year, but they still wound up as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The defense deserves a big chunk of credit, as it held five of their last six opponents to less than 20 points, including the Bengals in the divisional round — unfortunately, the offense (including a less than 100 percent health Henry) only managed 16. The front office doubled down on this being a run-first attack while the big back might still be in his prime, trading A.J. Brown and replacing him with veteran Robert Woods and first-round pick Treylon Burks. That leaves Ryan Tannehill without a true No. 1 WR, and Henry potentially facing another huge workload.

The Skinny

NYG injuries: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (doubtful, knee)
TEN injuries: EDGE Harold Landry (IR, knee)

NYG DFS targets: Sterling Shepard $4,900 DK / $5,500 FD (TEN 29th in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021)
TEN DFS targets: Henry $8,600 DK / $9,700 FD (NYG 32nd in rushing DVOA in 2021)

NYG DFS fades: Barkley $6,100 DK / $6,800 FD (TEN second in rushing yards per game allowed, fourth in YPC allowed in 2021), Daniel Bellinger $2,500 DK / $4,100 FD (TEN third in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)
TEN DFS fades: none

Key stat: NYG 32nd in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 44.7 percent; TEN seventh in red-zone defense at 51.7 percent

Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 15-30 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Barkley ekes out 60 yards. Jones throws for 250 yards and two TDs, finding Shepard and Kadarius Toney. Henry rumbles for 110 yards and two touchdowns. Tannehill throws for 240 yards and a score to Woods. Titans 24-20

Kansas City at Arizona (+6), o/u 53.5 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

A failure to return to the Super Bowl was apparently bad enough for Andy Reid to do some significant retooling on an offense that was "only" fourth in points per game and fifth in yards per play last year. The wide receiver room got cleared out, with Mecole Hardman the only one to escape the purge thanks to his rookie contract. Brought in as replacements were JuJu Smith-Schuster, whose one good season with Pittsburgh came in 2018; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who never panned out as a consistent deep threat in Green Bay; and 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore, who might need some development time before he can flash the upside suggested by his name. What that leaves for Patrick Mahomes is Travis Kelce and a guessing game against the defense as to who else might get involved in any particular week, which in theory should be an improvement on last season, when the secondary simply played back and took away Tyreek Hill as a downfield option. There have been some pseudo-obits written for Mahomes' status as an elite QB due to the adjustments defenses made against him in 2021, but the idea he and Reid won't have a response after getting an entire offseason to plan one out seems kind of ridiculous. The bigger question for Kansas City might be which version of the defense shows up. The team finished eighth in points per game allowed last year but 28th in yards per play allowed, and at least one of those rankings has to regress toward the other.

The Cardinals continue to stockpile talent on the outside. Christian Kirk may have walked in free agency, but Arizona traded for Marquise Brown to replace him, and once DeAndre Hopkins is back from his suspension, they'll join A.J. Green in one of the deepest receiving corps in the league. Despite the scheme he's in, Kyler Murray still has yet to throw for 4,000 yards in a season, but he was on pace to get there in 2021 if not for an ankle injury that cost him three games. Assuming he can kick his Call of Duty habit, this could be the season he really busts out as a passer. He might have to; relying on the fragile James Conner to head the backfield is playing with fire, and while the defense has been solid the last two seasons under coordinator Vance Joseph, the loss of Jordan Hicks leaves a big hole in the middle of the unit.

The Skinny

KC injuries: RT Lucas Niang (out, knee)
ARI injuries: WR Hopkins (out, suspension), WR Rondale Moore (out, hamstring), TE Zach Ertz (questionable, calf), LG Justin Pugh (questionable, neck), DE J.J. Watt (questionable, calf), CB Byron Murphy (questionable, illness), CB Trayvon Mullen (out, toe)

KC DFS targets: none
ARI DFS targets: Conner $7,000 DK / $7,700 FD (KC 31st in YPC allowed, 26th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021)

KC DFS fades: Smith-Schuster $5,200 DK / $6,400 FD (ARI third in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021), Kelce $6,600 DK / $8,000 FD (ARI second in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)
ARI DFS fades: Andy Isabella $3,000 DK / $4,700 FD (KC second in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021)

Key stat: ARI t-5th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 45.2 percent; KC 18th in third-down defense at 40.2 percent

The Scoop: Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the KC backfield with 70 yards. Mahomes throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, hitting MVS, Justin Watson and Jerick McKinnon. Conner bangs out 110 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving. Murray throws for 270 yards and a second TD to Brown while also adding 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Cardinals 31-30

Las Vegas (+3.5) at L.A. Chargers, o/u 52.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Remember Week 18 last season, when everyone wanted these two teams to tie for maximum standings chaos? Good times. The Raiders ended up being the ones squeaking through into the playoffs, but now they have a new head coach in former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who isn't used to merely squeaking in. The team went all-in on offense this offseason, trading for Davante Adams to reunite with his college QB, Derek Carr. Given that they haven't played together in almost a decade (they were both second-round picks in 2014 out of Fresno State), talk of their "chemistry" might be a bit overblown, but it's still about as good a scenario as Adams could find that didn't involve him simply staying in Green Bay and being Aaron Rodgers' favorite red-zone option. McDaniels' history of getting peak production out of tight ends suggests that red-zone role will belong to Darren Waller instead, but from a fantasy perspective it's a great situation no matter it breaks out, with three top targets alongside Hunter Renfrow and then nobody else of consequence. Vegas' backfield also seems to be trending in a New England-ish direction as Josh Jacobs finds himself falling out of the bell-cow role Jon Gruden really, really wanted him to have and into a committee with rookie Zamir White and passing-down options Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden.

Before you get too excited about the Raiders' new-look offense, keep in mind the Chargers were the only defense to hold Carr to less than 200 passing yards last year, and they did it both times they saw him, sacking him seven times to boot. Justin Herbert and a dynamic passing game draw plenty of accolades, but the Joey Bosa-led defense might not be too shabby either, and Bosa now has Khalil Mack drawing some attention on the other side of the line, while J.C. Jackson plugs a big hole in the secondary. Statistically the Bolts' defense was mediocre overall in 2021, but the talent is there to take a big step forward if the unit can stay healthy. If not, well, Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, etc., etc. can just outscore teams again. That works too.

The Skinny

LV injuries: none
LAC injuries: LB Drue Tranquill (questionable, back), CB Jackson (questionable, ankle)

LV DFS targets: Jacobs $6,300 DK / $7,000 FD (LAC 30th in rushing DVOA, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed, t-30th in rushing TDs allowed in 2021), Adams $8,100 DK / $8,500 FD (LAC 31st in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021)
LAC DFS targets: none

LV DFS fades: none
LAC DFS fades: none

Key stat: LAC fourth in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 64.0 percent; LV 32nd in red-zone defense at 81.4 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 6-4 LAC, average score 25-20 LAC, average margin of victory nine points. LV has won four of the last six meetings, but all four wins were by seven points or less

The Scoop: Jacobs gains 80 combined yards and a TD, while White adds 50 yards. Carr throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Adams (who tops 100 yards) and Waller. Ekeler racks up 100 combined yards and a score. Herbert throws for 300 yards and three TDs, finding Allen, Joshua Palmer and Gerald Everett. Chargers 31-27

Green Bay at Minnesota (+1.5), o/u 47.0 – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

It might be a while before it becomes clear who Aaron Rodgers' new darling is. With Davante Adams gone, there's an open audition for that top spot in the Packers' passing game, a torch that has been passed from Greg Jennings to Jordy Nelson to Adams during the QB's career. Allen Lazard is the popular choice, but he's hurt to begin the season and hasn't really looked like the type over his four NFL campaigns. Randall Cobb has the most experience alongside Rodgers and even led Green Bay in receiving once, but that was a decade ago and he's now 32. Sammy Watkins has teased being a No. 1 WR before in his career, but he's become a journeyman for a reason. That leaves rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but history suggests it'll be a year or two before Rodgers really trusts either. Maybe this is the year the running backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) and/or the tight ends (Robert Tonyan and Josiah Deguara) step to the forefront.

The Vikings got tired of spending all that money and amassing all that talent of offense, only for Mike Zimmer to neglect that side of the ball while trying to fix his broken defense. New head coach Kevin O'Connell was the offensive coordinator with the Rams the last couple years and should get the most out of Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and Kirk Cousins — not that they were struggling to post big numbers before. The defense got a major infusion of veteran linebacking talent in Jordan Hicks and Za'Darius Smith, and the unit probably only needs to be average for this team to be a serious threat.

The Skinny

GB injuries: WR Lazard (doubtful, ankle), LT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), RT Elgton Jenkins (questionable, knee)
MIN injuries: S Lewis Cine (questionable, knee)

GB DFS targets: none
MIN DFS targets: Cook $7,900 DK / $8,400 FD (GB 28th in rushing DVOA, 30th in YPC allowed in 2021), Irv Smith $3,400 DK / $5,100 FD (GB 28th in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)

GB DFS fades: none
MIN DFS fades: K.J. Osborn $4,900 DK / $5,200 FD (GB third in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021)

Key stat: MIN t-25th in third-down conversions in 2021 at 36.4 percent; GB t-23rd in third-down defense at 42.9 percent

Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-4-1 MIN, average score 23-23 GB, average margin of victory 10 points. GB has won four of the last six meetings

The Scoop: Jones leads the GB backfield with 90 combined yards and a TD, while Dillon adds 70 yards and a score. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, hitting (flips series of coins) Watkins and Doubs. Cook piles up 120 combined yards and a score. Cousins throws for 270 yards and a TD to Jefferson. Packers 28-23

Tampa Bay at Dallas (+2.5), o/u 50.5 – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

All along, maybe it wasn't that the Patriots were cheating, it was just that Tom Brady thrived on drama. After another tumultuous offseason, the 45-year-old returns to a team with a new head coach in Todd Bowles but the same scheme and offensive coordinator in Byron Leftwich, and mostly the same set of skill players, with Rob Gronkowski getting replaced by Julio Jones and Kyle Rudolph. If there's a worry, it's that the offensive line is down a couple starters from last year, but this was still one of only two teams to average more than 30 points a game last season. There's no real reason to expect a big regression.

The other team to top 30 points a game in 2021? The Cowboys, who led the league at 31.2 PPG. While Brady was busy creating drama in the offseason though, Jerry Jones was busy creating cap space and then doing little with it, cutting loose big names like Amari Cooper, Randy Gregory and La'el Collins. Not that there isn't plenty of drama in Dallas — the somewhat inexplicable personnel moves have generated conspiracy theories that owner/GM Jones is setting the stage for Mike McCarthy to get sacked and Sean Payton to ride in as the latest high-profile franchise savior in 2023 — but this is still a roster with a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and like the Bucs one with a lot of questions in the trenches that could drag down the offense. If Dak Prescott gets time and Ezekiel Elliott some holes, though, it's hard to imagine this attack being too sluggish, and Micah Parsons might just be the most disruptive defensive player in the NFL.

The Skinny

TB injuries: WR Chris Godwin (questionable, knee), WR Russell Gage (questionable, hamstring), LG Aaron Stinnie (IR, knee), C Ryan Jensen (IR, knee)
DAL injuries: WR Michael Gallup (out, knee), RT Tyron Smith (IR, knee), S Jayron Kearse (questionable, neck) 

TB DFS targets: none
DAL DFS targets: none

TB DFS fades: Mike Evans $6,900 DK / $8,000 FD (DAL first in DVOA vs. WR1 in 2021)
DAL DFS fades: Elliott $6,100 DK / $7,200 FD (TB third in rushing yards per game allowed, fifth in rushing TDs allowed in 2021)

Key stat: DAL sixth in red-zone conversions in 2021 at 63.1 percent; TB 10th in red-zone defense at 52.5 percent

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette picks up 60 yards. Brady throws for 290 yards and three scores, finding Julio, Cameron Brate and Scotty Miller. Elliott gets held to 50 yards, and Tony Pollard leads the DAL backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Prescott throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, hitting CeeDee Lamb (who tops 100 yards) and Dalton Schultz. Cowboys 30-24

Buffalo (+2.5) at L.A. Rams, o/u 52.0 - Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT

Considering this game features the team with the best preseason odds of winning Super Bowl LVII and the defending champs of Super Bowl LVI, you'd think there's be a little more certainly about what to expect from them. The Bills come into this one breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey, and while there shouldn't be much change in the scheme (Dorsey was the QB coach in Buffalo the last few years, and the passing game coordinator last year) it's still not Brian Daboll calling the shots. The team is also relying on Gabe Davis to keep building on his late-season breakout and playoff eruption against Kansas City to take some pressure off Stefon Diggs. Of course, it's still Josh Allen under center, so the floor is still pretty high for the offense even if it takes a couple weeks for everything to gel. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is down a Tre'Davious White but up a Von Miller, which might be a wash for a unit that led the league in 2021 in yards, yards per play and points allowed per game.

The Rams have some of the same mild questions — Allen Robinson is the new No. 2 wide receiver behind Cooper Kupp (until they unleash preseason beast Lance McCutcheon, anyway) after the 29-year-old had a down year in Chicago — but the main concerns on offense involve health. Matthew Stafford nursed an elbow issue in training camp, and while the team insists he's 100 percent ready for the regular season, it doesn't seem like something that will completely go away. The backfield could also be anything from an asset to a mess, as Cam Akers tries to prove he's all the way back from last year's Achilles tear while Darrell Henderson just tries to stay on the field. The Los Angeles defense lost Miller to Buffalo but added Bobby Wagner, so there's no reason to think the unit will take a big step back either. The Rams played 21 games last year, including playoffs, and held opponents to 20 points or less 11 times, including three of four in the postseason.

The Skinny

BUF injuries: CB White (out, knee)
LAR injuries: WR Van Jefferson (out, knee)

BUF DFS targets: James Cook $2,800 DK / $7,000 FD (LAR 24th in passing DVOA vs. RB in 2021), Bills DST $4,200 DK / $8,500 FD (first in points allowed per game, t-3rd in takeaways in 2021)
LAR DFS targets: none

BUF DFS fades: Dawson Knox $6,800 DK / $10,000 FD (LAR fourth in DVOA vs. TE in 2021)
LAR DFS fades: Stafford $10.800 DK / $15,500 FD (BUF first in passing yards per game allowed, first in passing TDs allowed, first in passing DVOA in 2021), Robinson $6,200 DK / $12,000 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR2 in 2021), Ben Skowronek $1,800 DK / $6,500 FD (BUF first in DVOA vs. WR3 in 2021)

Key stat: BUF was third in third-down conversions in 2021 at 46.3 percent; LAR was 21st in third-down defense at 41.3 percent

The Scoop: Devin Singletary gains 60 yards, while Cook adds 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Allen throws for 260 yards and a second score to Isaiah McKenzie while running in a touchdown of his own. Akers bangs out 80 yards and a score. Stafford throws for 250 yards and a TD to Kupp. Bills 24-20

2021 regular-season record: 174-97-1, 146-125-1 ATS, 125-143-4 o/u
2020 regular-season record: 164-91-1, 129-119-8 ATS, 117-133-6 o/u
Lifetime record: 1288-769-7, 1005-992-67 ATS, 735-787-30 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)