NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Week 3

The Disappearing Act. 

Every year we have a week or two when It seems that an unbelievable number of typically strong producers simply don't show up for fantasy. There's no rhyme or reason as to when these weeks occur. And it becomes very apparent within the first hours of a football Sunday that we're about to have one of those days.

We'll try to make sense of all the craziness that happened in the week 3 games and hopefully give some insight that may be helpful going forward. In addition to the fantasy takes, hopefully, some of these observations can also give you some ideas if you're thinking about placing some Week 4 bets https://www.rotowire.com/betting/nfl/odds/week-4 . Let's take a look at the Sunday afternoon action. 

Sunday Takeaways

• Somehow I mistakenly wrote off Justin Jefferson's last performance as a floor game. I had no idea how wrong I'd be. He seemed to have one of the easiest bounce-back games possible while facing the Lions, who have nobody to hang with him in their secondary. To make things better, Minnesota trailed by double-digits for much of the second half. But somehow, Jefferson was eighth on the team with 14 yards. It would be foolish to think he won't get on track soon, but fantasy managers were angry and disappointed from this performance. After keeping him ahead of Cooper Kupp in my season rankings, I have to decide how many spots to move Jefferson down the rest of the way.
• There's no reason to panic with Tyreek Hill. After coming off of one of the best games of his career, his four catch, 33-yard performance on four targets was little more than a market correction. The biggest issue was that Miami attempted just 20 passes, so he had a 25 percent target share. Obviously, he'll be fine going forward. 
• When facing the Chargers last week, it wasn't too shocking that Patrick Mahomes threw for 235 yards and two TDs.  But facing the Colts seemed like a far better situation. It didn't matter. Mahomes fortunately had some late yardage as the team tried to catch up, but he ended with just a single TD pass. Going back to last season, he's been held to two or fewer TD passes in four of his last 14 games. After throwing 50 TD passes in his first full season as a starter, he's yet to surpass 38 TDs since.  It's looking like he may have had a career year in 2018. 
• It's not that Jonathan Taylor had a terrible game. He ended up with 91 total yards. But after producing just 63 yards last week, he hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. For a player who many selected with their first pick in the draft, this certainly isn't the production they had hoped for. Even though the Indianapolis offensive line isn't what it was in years past, they should give him enough blocking going forward that he returns to elite levels of performance. 
• Joe Mixon was a fantasy superstar through week 12 of last season. But since the Bengals became more of a pass-heavy team, Mixon has scored in just one of his last seven games. He's also failed to surpass 65 rushing yards in those seven games. He has had a few good receiving games, which certainly helps his value. Today, he rushed for just 24 yards in a game the Bengals led throughout. He should be considered a volume based RB2 right now with a boost in PPR leagues. 
• After going off last week, Aaron Jones went back to being completely underused. It wasn't his 12 carries that was the problem, it was simply the nature of the three short passes he caught. There was no creativity to get him used as a weapon. With two frustrating performances to start the year, Jones has the look of an RB2 instead of the player who was drafted in the first 15 picks of many drafts.
• Once his legal troubles had cleared up, Alvin Kamara shot way up draft boards. Maybe that was a mistake. He was decent enough by producing 73 yards on 17 touches. But in two games, his five receptions have only turned into 19 yards. And as good of a runner as he is, without receiving production, his ceiling is drastically reduced. 
• Not only were the Raiders playing without slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, they were playing with a double-digit deficit throughout the second half. Yet somehow, Darren Waller was fourth on the team with five targets. And his 22 yards left him fifth on the team, well behind his backup, Foster Moreau. Since Waller had at least 50 yards in each of the first two games, this can probably be written off as a down week, and he should be just fine going forward. 
• After starting the season with a pair of 43-yard performances, many felt that they'd seen the floor from DJ Moore. That ended up being nowhere close to reality. He caught a single pass for two yards, and fortunately he chipped in 13 rushing yards.  At this point, it seems pretty certain that he has little chance of being a WR2, and hopefully he can at least produce flex-level value the rest of the way. 
• Brandin Cooks is an amazing NFL player. But in his first easy matchup of the year against the Bears, he recorded just 22 yards. That said, he did average 68 yards in his first two games, and this simply may be a floor game. He's actually not a bad player to target in a trade. 
• Coming off an ankle injury that cost him last week's game, Gabe Davis seemed fine entering the contest against the Dolphins. But even though Josh Allen threw for 400 yards, Davis posted just 37 yards. It's possible he wasn't yet back to complete health, so it's worth giving him a pass with the expectation he'll bounce back soon. 
• The Rams had control of the game against the Cardinals so they didn't have to throw a lot. But Matthew Stafford does not have the Rams passing game clicking. He threw for fewer than 250 yards and no TDs. This is his second weak fantasy performance in three outings. Unless things change soon, he looks more like a streamer than a strong weekly starting option. 
• Carson Wentz started off the season with a pair of games in which he had elite production. Facing an excellent Philadelphia defense, that run came crashing to a halt. Fantasy managers were reminded of the disappointment that rostering Wentz can include. Garbage time allowed him to move past 200 yards, but he was unable to throw a TD pass. I'd still consider him a matchup-dependent boom-or-bust weekly fantasy option. 

Injury Notes

• Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder in the second half against the Lions and was almost immediately ruled out of the game. Everyone knows the drill here. The injury was deemed day-to-day. But if he misses time, Alexander Mattison steps into a full-time role and becomes a plug-in play fantasy starter. 
• D'Andre Swift hurt his shoulder and had his touches significantly limited while Jamaal Williams handled the majority of RB touches. If Swift misses time, Williams would become a high-end RB2.
• Michael Thomas suffered a foot injury and didn't return to the game. After the issues he's had with injuries the past couple years, this certainly will sound some alarm bells for fantasy managers. However, until further word about his status emerges, there's no reason to downgrade him for fantasy purposes.
• David Montgomery left in the first quarter with an ankle injury and didn't return. Khalil Herbert completely exploded in his absence. If Montgomery is set to miss any time, Herbert may be considered a borderline RB1 in a lead role.
• Very late in the Patriots matchup against the Ravens, Mac Jones injured his leg, and he's set to have an MRI on Monday. If Jones misses time, Brian Hoyer would step in, and the Patriots' offense weapons would see a downgrade.
• During the fourth quarter against the Panthers, Jarvis Landry injured his ankle and didn't return to the game. Should he miss time, it's possible that TE Juwan Johnson could see an uptick in targets. 
• After seeing more snaps than both Rashaad Penny and Ken Walker last week, Travis Homer suffered a rib injury and was ruled out in the first half of Seattle's game against the Falcons. Over the first two weeks, Homer was serving as the lead receiving back. If he misses time, Penny and Walker would likely soak up a few extra targets. 
• Byron Pringle sustained a calf injury and was ruled out of the game against the Texans. Between him competing for targets with other receivers and being in an extremely low-volume passing attack, Pringle doesn't have much fantasy value.