NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Week 1

Narratives. We spend the entire offseason weaving narratives to prepare for our fantasy drafts. Then we get to Week 1. Those narratives can be instantly dismantled. We also love when we get some early-season confirmation bias. However, taking victory laps on players who perform well with just a single game in the books is usually not wise. 

That said, the entire NFL season is a small sample. We should react to any data we take in. We also have to be careful not to overreact. There's a buying opportunity in the trade market when a player on someone else's roster has a disappointing performance. Fantasy managers must be in constant evaluation mode. It may be the best time of the year to throw out trade offers, especially when a player you anticipate to do well has a defensible reason for getting off to a slow start. Of course, in addition to fantasy football, you can use what you learned in Week 1 to get an early edge on the Week 2 lines https://www.rotowire.com/betting/nfl/odds/week-2. 

Let's look at a few of the top storylines that we dealt with during our first football Sunday of the year.  Hopefully, this adds some context to our developing narratives in what was a wild first week of football.

Sunday Takeaways

• Many fantasy gamers refused to believe that James Robinson would resume his role as the lead running back in Jacksonville after suffering an Achilles injury in December. Amazingly, that's exactly what he did. He scored the only two Jacksonville touchdowns, and he out-touched Travis Etienne 12 to six. with Robinson playing well, it's likely he retains a significant role for at least the near future. 
• Don't be surprised if Justin Jefferson sets receiving records this season. The excellent Packers secondary had no answers for him. He was often wide open.
• It was a disappointing season opener for Aaron Jones. Despite trailing the entire game, AJ Dillon was more active as both a runner and receiver. The rushing part wasn't a surprise. The receiving part was. If the Packers don't make major use of Jones, their offense could struggle along with his fantasy value.
• It was largely assumed that Joe Burrow would have much better protection behind a revamped offensive line. However, he was sacked seven times and threw four interceptions in a Bengals loss. Of course, Pittsburgh has a great pass rush, so it's too early to assume that pass protection will be an issue. But this outing was worse than expected.
• It doesn't matter who his QB is, Davante Adams is unstoppable. 
• Jets rookie Breece Hall was a second-round draft pick in this year's draft. For much of the preseason, it was assumed that he would easily lead the backfield. However, recent reports said Michael Carter was ahead of Hall on the depth chart. That wasn't a lie. Carter had four more rushing attempts and one more reception.  For now, this appears to be a timeshare, though that could change down the road. 
• Throughout the summer, Dameon Pierce shot up draft boards, especially after he was declared the starting running back for the Texans. Despite playing with favorable game script the entire way, Pierce had 14 touches for 39 yards. Meanwhile, Rex Burkhead led the team with 14 carries while being targeted 8 times, and he ended with 70 yards in the game. Although Pierce is the starter, Burkhead might not be going away anytime soon. 
• We were reminded why Nick Chubb isn't a first-round pick in many fantasy drafts. Despite being one of the most talented players in the league, his timeshare crushes his fantasy ceiling. He had an amazing game with 141 rushing yards and over six yards per carry. However, Kareem Hunt received 15 touches and scored Cleveland's only two touchdowns while putting up 68 yards. Both RBs are excellent players, and we can likely expect inconsistent production from each. 
• Many will look at Trey Lance's  poor performance against Chicago and decide that he's on the fast track to becoming a bust. Maybe he will be. But in his defense, the 49ers' game plan never seemed to have an identity, and the play-calling seemed disjointed. In addition, George Kittle missed the game and Elijah Mitchell left with a knee injury. To top things off, the rain was relentless in the second half and the field was soaked throughout the contest. He probably deserves another game before drawing any conclusions.
• Kenneth Gainwell was gaining steam in drafts this summer. Miles Sanders had an ADP that showed there was little confidence in him. In Week 1, Gainwell didn't exactly have a major role. Not only did Miles Sanders lead the running back group with 13 carries, he also received work in the red zone. That said, all three Philadelphia running backs (including Boston Scott) found the end zone while Jalen Hurts rushed one in as well. For now, Sanders appears to be in the driver's seat. Unless something changes, Gainwell will have to earn additional time.
• Sticking with the Eagles, A.J. Brown saw 13 of Jalen Hurts'  29 pass attempts while catching 10 of the 18 completions. With 155 yards, the only other wide receiver to post stats was Zach Pascal, who had one catch for seven yards. Maybe the preseason talk that Brown would be force-fed targets will be true. DeVonta Smith (no catches) and Dallas Goedert each had four targets.
• Saquon Barkley had two huge runs against the Titans. Is he back to superstar status? Or were the Titans just bad on defense? Regardless, Barkley looked great in Week 1.
• Although Jaylen Waddle had a strong fantasy game with 4/69/TD line, Tyreek Hill out-targeted him 12 to five. With Hill having complained about his target share in Kansas City after being acquired by Miami, it seemed as if the team would be compelled to feed him targets. For now, that seems to be the case.
• He wasn't needed much in a blowout win, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire looked explosive as a runner and receiver against the Cardinals. He did split passing-game work with Jerick McKinnon, so Edwards-Helaire is likely ticketed for the bigger part of a timeshare. 
• The Colts were expected to have a narrow tree of fantasy production. That's exactly what happened against the Texans. Both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman went well over 100 yards while each scored a touchdown. In addition, Matt Ryan threw for more than 350 yards with a touchdown. However, Nyheim Hines was targeted six times, catching all of them for 50 yards, so he may be a regular part of the offense as well. 
• It seemed to be a no-brainer that Amari Cooper was the Browns' No. 1 receiver going into the season. The season opener told a different story. Cooper caught three of six targets for 17 yards while Donovan Peoples-Jones caught six of 11 targets for 60 yards. Fantasy managers might want to give it another week or two before deciding if this is the new reality for Cooper. 
• Antonio Gibson made the most of his opportunity to start. He handled 14 carries and caught seven passes, and he totaled 130 yards. J.D. McKissic had a minor role and wasn't a threat to Gibson. He should have at least three more games to prove his value to the coaching staff before Brian Robinson returns. 

Injuries

• Najee Harris suffered a foot injury and didn't return to the game. Postgame reports indicate that it might not be serious. If he misses time, Jaylen Warren could be the next man up.
• Tee Higgins was forced from the game with a concussion in the first half and didn't return. Both Joe Mixon and Hayden Hurst picked up much of the slack in the passing game, as the duo accounted for 17 targets. If Higgins misses time, Mixon, Hurst and Tyler Boyd could see increased use as receivers.
• Keenan Allen left the matchup against the Raiders with a hamstring injury. As soon as he left the field, DeAndre Carter was extremely productive. However, Josh Palmer may start in two-WR sets if Allen misses time.
• Elijah Mitchell suffered a first-half knee injury and didn't return. Jeff Wilson took over duties, as Tyrion Davis-Price was inactive for the game. Deebo Samuel saw significant action as a runner as well. The coaching staff already had Wilson as the No. 2 on the depth chart, so he'd likely start if Mitchell doesn't make it back next week.
• Wan'Dale Robinson sustained a knee injury in the first half and was ruled out of the game. Sterling Shepard could see increased work if Robinson is sidelined.
• Damien Williams suffered an injury to his ribs and didn't return to the game. Tyler Allgeier was inactive while Cordarrelle Patterson took on a major role. It's possible that Allgeier suits up if Williams misses Week 2.
• For those in IDP leagues, T.J. Watt is feared to have suffered a torn pectoral. That also would be a massive hit to the Steelers' pass rush.
• Harrison Butker left with an ankle injury but returned and kicked a 54-yard field goal. He did not handle kickoffs after injuring his ankle.