This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions, Week 16
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This is a battle of teams with excellent records that also seem to have a lot to prove. Miami is 10-4, one game behind the Ravens for the top mark in the AFC and two games ahead of the Bills in their division. Dallas is tied with the Eagles at 10-4 for the NFC East lead. The Cowboys are one game behind the 49ers for the conference lead. However, the question for the Dolphins is whether they can beat one of the top teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys did defeat Philadelphia in a home game, but their question is whether they can beat a good team on the road. One of these teams will leave the field with their confidence boosted. The other squad will likely begin to question how they stack up with the elite teams in the league.
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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Betting Odds for Week 16
The Dolphins are 1.5-point home favorites while this game has an over/under total of 51.5. Dallas has a team total of 25.5 while Miami's team total is 26.5. These odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. To date, the Dolphins are averaging 31.5 points, and they are giving up 21 points per contest. Meanwhile, Dallas has scored an average of 30.8 points, while allowing 18.9 per game.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Betting Picks This Week
On the season, the Dolphins have played three teams that are likely to make the playoffs. Each of those games was either played on the road or in an international game. In addition to losing each of those games, Miami had trouble scoring at their 31 points-per-game rate. In those contests, they scored 20 against the Bills, 17 against the Eagles and 14 against the Chiefs. It's tough to figure out how the Dolphins will score at home. The main issue is that they've faced mostly weaker teams in their home games. There isn't a game that the Dolphins faced a solid defense in games played in Miami. Over the past two years, we've seen good defenses have success against Miami. These defenses were able to disrupt the timing of the offense. Those solid defenses were also able to get quick pressure on Tua Tagovailoa.
Moving over to the Cowboys, they have gone 3-4 on the road. They earned wins against the Giants, Chargers and Panthers. Obviously, each of those are bad football teams. In away contests against the Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles and Bills, they were defeated. Taking out the Arizona game and leaving in the three playoff-caliber teams, Dallas lost by a combined score of 101-43. Not only have they lost each of those games to solid opponents, but they weren't competitive against the 49ers and Bills.
Between Miami struggling against strong opponents and Dallas playing poorly on the road, we can find some betting edges. The first is the Dolphins going under 26.5 points. Even though the Cowboys have given up more than 26 points in four road games, the Dolphins' inability to reach 21 points against any of their tougher opponents appears to be the stronger trend. It also should be noted that the offensive line of the Dolphins is banged up right now, and they'll be without their center, Connor Willams (IR, knee). A case can also be made to bet that this games goes under the posted total of 51.5. These odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Best Bet: Dolphins under 26.5 points.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins Prediction
The Cowboys defense has struggled in recent games against the Bills and the Seahawks. However, their ability to pressure quarterbacks may match up well against a Miami offensive line that is not playing in peak form at this time (largely due to injuries). Also, defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has showed the ability to be game-plan specific against opponents. It seems favorable that he has pass defenders who can disrupt the timing of the Miami wide receivers. Between the potential disruption to the receivers along with the pass rush, the Dolphins likely struggle to consistently move the football.
On the other side of the football, Miami has been playing defense at a higher level since CB Jalen Ramsey returned to the lineup last month. Despite the improvements, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's defenses are geared to stop the big play. That comes at a cost of allowing opposing offenses to find open spaces in the middle of the field. Since the Cowboys' Week 7 bye, the team has leaned on TE Jake Ferguson as a seam stretcher while also moving star receiver CeeDee Lamb around the formation. While moving Lamb, Dallas has tried to weaponize him against the weakness of the defense. The veteran receiver has been dominant when used in the middle of the field. It appears that the Cowboys have a slight edge in the passing game.
Overall, these factors lead to Dallas having a chance to outscore Miami in what should be a moderate-scoring contest. I predict the Cowboys win, 20-19.
