This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
Projections are a tricky thing for all fantasy sports because they don't take into account a player's potential range of outcomes. On the other hand, they are a useful starting point to identify a player's potential role and in which areas they can excel. In this week's barometer, we'll use RotoWire projections to highlight values and busts based on ADP from the three primary host sites: ESPN, Yahoo and NFFC. ADPs are according to position.
Risers
Saquon Barkley, Giants
RW Projection: 8
ESPN ADP: 15
Yahoo ADP: 13
NFFC ADP: 10
It's understandable that drafters are hesitant to select Saquon Barkley in the same ADP range as Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Most notably, Barkley has struggled to stay on the field — he tore his ACL in 2020 and suffered an ankle sprain in 2021 — in each of the last two seasons and has average only 3.5 yards per carry even when on the field. For a player reliant upon explosive plays, he's tallied just three rushes of 20 yards or more and one rush of 40 yards or more in 15 games combined in 2020 and 2021.
On the other hand, there's plenty of reason to believe in the projection. Barkley's tabbed for 246 rushing attempts and 1,071 rushing yards (4.3 YPC). Perhaps that's a bit optimistic, but Barkley could get a big workload if he's healthy. And improved efficiency doesn't require a full rebound to the first two seasons of his
Projections are a tricky thing for all fantasy sports because they don't take into account a player's potential range of outcomes. On the other hand, they are a useful starting point to identify a player's potential role and in which areas they can excel. In this week's barometer, we'll use RotoWire projections to highlight values and busts based on ADP from the three primary host sites: ESPN, Yahoo and NFFC. ADPs are according to position.
Risers
Saquon Barkley, Giants
RW Projection: 8
ESPN ADP: 15
Yahoo ADP: 13
NFFC ADP: 10
It's understandable that drafters are hesitant to select Saquon Barkley in the same ADP range as Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. Most notably, Barkley has struggled to stay on the field — he tore his ACL in 2020 and suffered an ankle sprain in 2021 — in each of the last two seasons and has average only 3.5 yards per carry even when on the field. For a player reliant upon explosive plays, he's tallied just three rushes of 20 yards or more and one rush of 40 yards or more in 15 games combined in 2020 and 2021.
On the other hand, there's plenty of reason to believe in the projection. Barkley's tabbed for 246 rushing attempts and 1,071 rushing yards (4.3 YPC). Perhaps that's a bit optimistic, but Barkley could get a big workload if he's healthy. And improved efficiency doesn't require a full rebound to the first two seasons of his career. It can be dangerous to walk down narrative street, but Barkley has discussed lacking confidence in his body last season while returning from the torn ACL. He has had a normal offseason and looked sharp in a brief appearance in the Giants' first preseason game, so Barkley returning to his 2019 form (18.8 PPR points per game) appears within reach.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars
RW Projection: 16
ESPN ADP: 23
Yahoo ADP: 23
NFFC ADP: 17
James Robinson is expected to be ready Week 1, which makes Etienne another difficult case to evaluate. However, his projection illustrates that Etienne doesn't need to be a workhorse back to return value on his ADP. The projections allocate 197 carries to Etienne and 184 to Robinson. Etienne is projected to have a massive advantage as a pass catcher (62 vs. 26 receptions for Robinson), but he was an elite pass catcher in college and will be reunited with Trevor Lawrence. Perhaps the Jaguars' offense is holding drafters back on truly buying into Etienne, but it should look much improved with Doug Pederson as new head coach.
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
RW Projection: 23
ESPN ADP: 25
Yahoo ADP: 32
NFFC ADP: 31
There's no official news on Godwin's status for Week 1, but he seems to be on a positive trajectory. He participated in 7-on-7 drills Tuesday — his most significant on-field work since he tore his ACL. Godwin's projection is modest (76 receptions, 954 yards, seven TDs) and builds in the possibility that he'll start the campaign slowly or even miss the start of the regular season. If there is good news on Godwin's status as the preseason progresses his ADP is likely to rise, so this is a bargain to jump on while the situation remains more ambiguous. For drafters willing to take on some risk, Godwin is close to must-draft at ADP.
Elijah Moore, Jets
RW Projection: 27
ESPN ADP: 44
Yahoo ADP: 36
NFFC ADP: 32
There are two potential strikes against Moore. The first is the addition of Garrett Wilson to the receiving corps, and the other is the potential absence of Zach Wilson to begin the season. As for target competition, Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder moved on during this offseason, opening a combined 122 targets. Therefore, we can expect targets to condense around Moore, Corey Davis and Wilson because the Jets made no other substantial additions to their receiving units. The potential absence of Zach Wilson is a bit more concerning, especially because the team seems to be content with Joe Flacco as its starter. However, Moore showed the ability to produce with backup quarterback play last season. In four games with Mike White or Flacco under center, Moore averaged 20.9 PPR points per game. That shouldn't set the expectations for his production in 2022, but could serve to alleviate some of the surrounding concerns about the quarterback situation for the Jets.
Cole Kmet, Bears
RW Projection: 13
ESPN ADP: 15
Yahoo ADP: 11
NFFC ADP: 12
The Bears offense is projected to be abysmal in 2022, but that's not all that different from the 2021 campaign when Kmet managed 60 receptions for 612 yards in his sophomore season. Kmet's inability to find the end zone has held him back from a fantasy perspective. He has only two career touchdowns on 137 targets, a mark that almost certainly has to progress. Even with a modest four-touchdown projection, Kmet lands in roughly the same tier as Pat Freiermuth, Mike Gesicki and Albert Okwuegbunam. While many have rightly panned Chicago's skill-position players heading into the regular season, Kmet should reasonably be projected to receive the second-most targets on the team.
Fallers
Allen Robinson, Rams
RW Projection: 30
ESPN ADP: 31
Yahoo ADP: 21
NFFC ADP: 18
We'll start with Robinson because he's perhaps the hardest player to justify on this list. However, the gap between his ADP — Yahoo and NFFC, at least — and projections is the biggest among the top-50 WRs, so he merits discussion. Robinson had a disastrous 2021 season, and the obvious explanation is a combination of Chicago's lackluster offense and Robinson's lack of desire to be with the team. However, he commanded only 66 targets across 12 games and averaged 6.2 yards per target. Those numbers are hard to ignore, even given the circumstances.
On the other hand, there's plenty to be bullish about for Robinson. He's still only 28 and will play with a competent quarterback for the first time in his career. Even though Cooper Kupp dominated looks from Matthew Stafford in 2021, Robert Woods managed to average 15 fantasy points per game prior to suffering a torn ACL. While different styles of receiver, Robinson will take over for Woods as the Rams' second receiver. If drafters were less aggressive on Robinson that would make his projection more palatable (his ADP is WR31 on ESPN), but relying on him as a mid-level WR2 is a bit too aggressive for our projections' liking.
Dawson Knox, Bills
RW Projection: 14
ESPN ADP: 12
Yahoo ADP: 9
NFFC ADP: 10
The top nine tight ends in ADP and RotoWire's projection align nearly perfectly. That changes when we get to Knox, and the explanation is touchdown regression. Four tight ends scored nine touchdowns last season. Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce are among that group and tallied 153 and 134 targets, respectively, compared to only 71 for Knox. Hunter Henry also scored nine touchdowns on 75 targets, but his ADP at the position is in the mid-teens on the providing sites. A Josh Allen/Buffalo offense boost can reasonably be taken into account for Knox, but even when projected for six touchdowns he falls well short of his current draft cost.
Chase Edmonds, Dolphins
RW Projection: 36
ESPN ADP: 34
Yahoo ADP: 31
NFFC ADP: 28
Coach Mike McDaniel has praised Edmonds for his intelligent approach as a rusher and receiver, so it wouldn't be out of line to have a positive outlook for Edmonds' first season in Miami. He'll almost certainly have a substantial role in the offense, confirmed when he sat out the team's opening preseason game along with Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. However, Edmonds racked up a career-high 116 carries in 2021 with Arizona and suffered four injuries that limited him to 12 games. It's unfair to predict he'll get injured again based solely on that, but his projection of 172 carries and 40 receptions suggests he'll either have a massive workload and miss games, or split carries with Mostert, Sony Michel or others in the Miami backfield. In either scenario, the value isn't there.
James Cook, Bills
RW Projection: 41
ESPN ADP: 38
Yahoo ADP: 38
NFFC ADP: 35
The Bills invested a second-round pick on Cook in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he's reportedly impressed in training camp. This is simply the case of making the numbers work. Cook is projected for 151 rushing attempts and 42 receptions, both of which are fairly bullish considering Devin Singletary has recorded 188 and 151 carries with 40 and 38 receptions the last two seasons, respectively. However, Josh Allen plays such a big role in the Bills' offense, and particularly as a rusher relative other quarterbacks in the league, the workload may not be there for Cook to emerge as a consistently startable fantasy running back for much of his rookie season.
