This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
The Week 3 tickets came up way short, as Cam Newton didn't score in the Patriots win, Calvin Ridley didn't score AND the Falcons lost (we might be done with Atlanta), Ezekiel Elliott did score but the Cowboys lost late, Miles Sanders came five yards short of 100 in the Eagles' win and long-shot KJ Hamler didn't score a touchdown. Our only hit was Austin Ekeler over 26.5 receiving yards, a hilariously low total in hindsight, especially after his first reception of the game went for 28 (he finished with 80 on 11 targets).
We'll try to bounce back in a week that has eight games with totals over 50.0: Cardinals vs. Panthers (52.0), Browns vs. Cowboys (56.5), Vikings vs. Texans (53.5), Saints vs. Lions (54.5), Seahawks vs. Dolphins (54.5), Bills vs. Raiders (52.5), Patriots vs. Chiefs (52.5) and Falcons vs. Packers (56.5). Apologies to Jaguars vs. Browns (49.5) and Giants vs. Rams (48.5) for coming up a bit short of our completely arbitrary 50.0-point requirement. If you want to take all of the overs in an eight-team parlay, you'll get +18383 odds (don't do that).
Kenyan Drake anytime touchdown and Cardinals win (+140)
The Cardinals are 3.0-point road favorites against the Panthers, who come in leading the league in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (seven), which comes after they led the league in the category last season (27). We only need the Cardinals to win this one (they're -172 on the moneyline), and we obviously need Drake to break through for his second score of the season after getting into the end zone in Week 1 against the 49ers. The Cardinals' offense is known for their fast pace, but one big thing holding Drake back is that they don't pass him the ball much, as he's gotten only five target through three games. Nevertheless, 54 carries over that span (fifth most in the NFL) and a similar expected workload Sunday should give us a good chance on this one and a better payout than just the Cardinals to win.
DK Metcalf to have 100+ yards receiving and Seahawks win (+330)
The Seahawks are making the longest possible road trip in the NFL and playing a 10:00 a.m. body clock game, and they are still 5.5-point favorites against the Dolphins with a huge total. Their top running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are questionable to play, but even if they were fully healthy we know that the offense revolves around what Russell Wilson does with his arm. While Tyler Lockett is coming off a monster game when he caught nine of 13 targets for 100 yards and three touchdowns, Metcalf has had three straight games with more than 90 receiving yards, including 110 last week. And while the Seahawks are actually the team that's allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, only six allowed more than the Dolphins through three games. Checking out the RotoWire weekly projections, Metcalf has the fifth-highest projected receiving yards for the week while Lockett is seventh overall.
Mike Evans over 62.5 receiving yards (-110)
I was definitely tempted by Mike Evans to have 100+ receiving yards and a Tampa Bay win at +300, but I guess we can play it a bit safer with the over 62.5 receiving yards. Expectations are high for Evans because Chris Godwin is out with a hamstring injury, making him easily the top receiving option for the Buccaneers. We saw Evans without Godwin in Week 2 against Carolina when he finished with seven catches on 10 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown, and he's easily one of the highest projected receivers Sunday against the Chargers. There are plenty of opportunities to take advantage of Evans in this matchup, one that has the Buccaneers as 7.0-point home favorites (and -330 on the moneyline), including Evans anytime touchdown (-105), an Evans touchdown in a Buccaneers win (+145) and even the longer-shot Evans two touchdowns (+550).
Ezekiel Elliott to score 2+ touchdowns (+240)
The Cowboys' offense has relied heavily on quarterback Dak Prescott because their defense keeps giving up tons of points that they have to make up. As a result, Prescott leads the league with 1,188 passing yards, including 450 and 472 in the past two games, respectively. Maybe more importantly for this bet, he's also thrown five touchdown passes and rushed for three more (all three in Week 2 against Atlanta). However, the Cowboys are solid 4.5-point home favorites against the Browns and shouldn't need to play catch-up, which indicate more opportunities for Elliott. I highlighted the longer-odds of two touchdowns, especially since Elliott to score one is -240, which is not fun. Over 83.5 rushing yards (-110) also seems doable, as does an Elliott touchdown in a Cowboys win (+100). Or, you could choose halves and take Elliott to score in the first half (+115) or second half (+130) if you don't want to rely on him getting to 100 rushing yards for the first time this season. If you do think he gets there, parlaying that with a Cowboys win gets you to +220.
