This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
We kicked the season off successfully last week, with Bengals +5.5 and under 43.5 (+170), DK Metcalf anytime touchdown and Seahawks win (+270) and Jack Doyle over 32.5 receiving yards (-105) all hitting, with the only negative our three-team parlay based on the unanimous selections from Staff Picks, which was Panthers +3.0, Lions -3.0 and Bengals +3.5.
This week's unanimous picks are Eagles +1, Cowboys -4.5, Giants +5 and Raiders +5.5, with three of the five guys making the Cowboys their best bets. Unfortunately, three of the lines have moved, as we now have Cowboys -3.5, Eagles -1.5 and Giants +5.5, while the Raiders' line is still the same.
Ronald Jones anytime touchdown and Buccaneers win (+170)
The Buccaneers are 8.5-point home favorites against the Panthers, who allowed the most rushing touchdowns, second-most rushing yards and most yards per carry last season. You'll get -105 odds if you take Tampa Bay to cover that spread, or -370 on the moneyline, but pairing that win with a Ronald Jones anytime touchdown gets you to +170.
Jones is a bit of a fantasy darling this week because they are such big favorites and Panthers are dismal against the run, making his rushing prop of 58.5 yards feel a bit low, making the -110 for the over a solid bet too (the RotoWire projections have him at 71.38). There is obviously some Leonard Fournette risk, but Jones got most of the red-zone carries last week (Tom Brady, of course, poached a goal-line touchdown) and is expected for a big game in Week 2.
Derrick Henry To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+220)
The Titans are 7.5-point favorites against the Jaguars, and there are huge expectations for Henry, especially because top wideout A.J. Brown is out with a knee injury. Henry was already the focal point of the Titans' offense, which certainly contributes to the fact that his rushing prop is set at an astounding 114.5, and he's -250 for an anytime touchdown.
Even a Henry anytime touchdown in a Titans win is only -135, but there are two ways to make this much more interesting: Henry to score at least twice at +220 or Henry to score first in a Titans win at +370. First touchdowns are extremely hard to predict, which is why we'll take lesser risk, albeit at a lesser payout, for Henry to hit pay-dirt twice against a Jaguars defense that allowed the second-most touchdowns to running backs last season and allowed two to the Colts' Nyheim Hines in Week 1.
Chris Herndon over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Jets are 7.0-point home underdogs against the 49ers, who are playing a 10:00 a.m. body clock game with a 41.5-point total. Both teams are dealing with a number of injuries, but it's pretty obvious the Jets will likely be playing catch-up, which puts Herndon in play even more because No. 1 wide receiver Jamison Crowder is out injured. Herndon, who is projected for 49.30 yards by RotoWire, missed nearly all of last season because of his own injury, but he's a very important part of the Jets' offense, as we saw just last week when he caught six of seven targets for 37 receiving yards on 42 air yards. We'll obviously need more than that this week, but with less competition for targets, he has a great shot of breaking that 45.5-yard threshold.
Cowboys -6.5 and over 52.5 points (+320)
Chris Liss originally had this line at Cowboys -8, so let's play around with that one for a bit. The scoreboard operator is expected to be busy in this one, with the regular game total currently 53.5 and the Cowboys favored by 3.5. Putting our trust in Chris (I don't blame you from walking away right now), who has a 31-23 score for this one, Cowboys covering a touchdown and the teams combining for 54 get us to +320. If you're not as adventurous about the Falcons keeping pace, Cowboys -6.5 and over 44.5 points is +190.
