Exploiting the Matchups: Week 14 Start/Sit

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Updated on December 10, 2021 3:34PM EST

Unless otherwise noted, references to 'fantasy points' are based on PPR scoring with 25/10 yards per point and 4/6 points for TDs. Start % comes from Yahoo, as of Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

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Quarterbacks

Cam Newton (vs. ATL)

7% started

Five-ish years ago, conventional wisdom said Newton would need to become a better pocket passer to make up for the inevitable decline of his running skills as he approached his 30s. Go figure that he's now 32 and it's actually his passing — already the weakness — that's seen more decline. On the ground, Newton still looks pretty close to his prime form when he's healthy, moving faster and with more agility than anyone his age/size has a right to. And while his passing stats may be an adventure even in favorable matchups, a home game against Atlanta should lead Newton to at least 30-40 rushing yards and a fourth rushing TD in as many games.

Right cornerback Fabian Moreau (hamstring). The #Falcons could also be without Richie Grant (ankle) and outside linebacker Ade Ogundeji (ankle), who suffered injuries against the Bucs. Coach Arthur Smith said they are "day to day" and doesn't think the injuries are "long term."
— D. Orlando Ledbetter (@DOrlandoAJC) December 8, 2021

Honorable Mentions: Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. CHI; Teddy Bridgewater, DEN vs. DET

Running Backs

AJ Dillon (vs. CHI)

27% started

Aaron Jones should be ready to reclaim his full role coming out of a bye, after missing Week 11 with a knee sprain and then getting only 10 touches on 49 percent snap share Week 12. Still, Dillon can stay in lineups for another week, with the Packers favored by 12.5 and facing a defense that's been playing without two of its three best players (Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks) in the front seven, while the third guy (Roquan Smith) is fighting through a hamstring injury. The Bears held four of their first five opponents this season under 100 rushing yards, but they've since allowed six of seven to hit that mark, including the Packers with 154 back in Week 6 (Dillon had 11-59-0, while Jones put up 13-76-0 and 4-34-1).

Darrel Williams (vs. LV)

18% started

Williams won't repeat his 144-yard effort from the Week 10 win over Vegas, but he's still perfectly viable for deep leagues or emergencies, with exactly five carries and three targets in both games since Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned from IR. Williams has been getting most of the playing time on pass plays — more so than early in the season — logging 53 and 46 percent of snaps in the past two games even with the Chiefs winning by 10 and 13 points. A closer game this week might lead Williams to more targets, while a true blowout could give him extra carries in garbage time.

Honorable Mentions: Javonte Williams + Melvin Gordon (hip/shoulder), DEN vs. DET; Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. ATL; D'Onta Foreman, TEN vs. JAX; Darrel Williams, KC vs. LV; Adrian Peterson & Rashaad Penny, SEA at HOU

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton + Jerry Jeudy (vs. DET)

34% , 53% started

The Lions have been an absolute mess on the back end all season, yielding a league-high 8.3 YPA to quarterbacks while giving up the second-most YPT (9.2) to wide receivers. In other words, they're the perfect matchup for a team with a broken passing game to grease its squeaky wheel(s) and pretend everything's okay. All we need is one afternoon of semi-competence from QB Teddy Bridgewater and OC Pat Shurmur, as Sutton and Jeudy (plus Tim Patrick) are capable of running circles around a struggling young Detroit secondary. Let's take a leap of faith and ignore the brutal game logs (for one week).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. CHI)

22% started

Valdes-Scantling saw 19 targets over his last two games before a Week 13 bye, and it now appears he'll return to action with teammate Randall Cobb (groin) out of the lineup, which means MVS should run a route on nearly every pass play this Sunday. The same could be true for Allen Lazard, but he's struggled to draw targets even when he gets ample snaps and routes, with no more than six looks in any one game this season (despite playing more than three-quarters of offensive snaps five times). Both guys get a nice matchup this week, as Bears CB Jaylon Johnson figures to stick with Davante Adams, while the other Chicago cornerbacks have been a mess all year.

Honorable Mentions: Cole Beasley, BUF at TB; Jarvis Landry & Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE vs. BAL; Jamison Crowder, NYJ vs. NO; Marvin Jones, JAX at TEN; Byron Pringle, KC vs. LV

Tight Ends

Austin Hooper (vs. BAL)

6% started

You might wonder if this is a typo given that Hooper faced the Ravens in his last game and finished without a catch on three targets. It's not, and the veteran tight end won't be turning in another goose egg this weekend. Instead, he should handle an every-down role and work as QB Baker Mayfield's second or third option in the passing game, as the Browns' issues at WR have now spread to TE, with Harrison Bryant (ankle) and possibly David Njoku (COVID-19) out for Sunday's game. Despite shutting Hooper down two weeks ago, the Ravens have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends, and they've now lost three of their four Week 1 starters in the secondary to season-ending injuries.

Honorable Mentions: Zach Ertz, ARZ vs. LAR

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Quarterbacks

Derek Carr (at KC)

29% started

The Chiefs have allowed 17 points or fewer each week throughout their ongoing five-game winning streak, while Carr and the stretched-thin Raiders have thrown just five TD passes in their five games since a Week 8 bye. That includes the 41-14 loss to Kansas City in Week 10, which was actually Carr's best fantasy outing (261 yards, two TDs) during the recent cold streak. It isn't really his fault, of course, with the Raiders first losing their head coach, then their No. 1 wideout, and now possibly playing a second straight game without star TE Darren Waller (knee/back). That's a challenge even before considering the circumstances surrounding the aforementioned departures, and it all leaves the Raiders offense undermanned even if Waller makes it back this week.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Ryan, ATL at CAR

Running Backs

Devonta Freeman (at CLE)

56% started

The bigger picture on Freeman shows he's coming off his largest snap share (68 percent) and best yardage total (95) of the season, while Latavius Murray has sunk to a distant second in the Baltimore backfield. Perhaps that makes Freeman a must-start in deeper leagues, but there are also some signs of potential trouble this week, with the injury-raved Ravens and their slumping offense heading to Cleveland as 2.5-point underdogs in a game with the third lowest over/under (42.5) of Week 14. Even two weeks ago, when the Ravens were in better shape, Freeman managed only 7.0 PPR points (his lowest total since Week 5) in a 16-10 win over the Browns. He should do a little better in the rematch, but don't expect a repeat of last week's big outing in Pittsburgh.

Ravens RT Patrick Mekari will also be out a few weeks, per John Harbaugh. He left at halftime with a hand injury.
— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) December 6, 2021

Tevin Coleman (vs. NO)

25% started

Writer's Note: Coleman missed practice Wednesday with a concussion, potentially passing the tricky matchup to a split backfield between Ty Johnson, Austin Walter and maybe the long lost La'Mical Perine.

The Saints defense probably won't get enough credit for an impressive season, with the injury-riddled mess of an offense hogging most of the attention and making it tough to win. New Orleans is 12th in DVOA against the pass and first against the run, yielding a meager 3.6 YPC even after giving up a 57-yard TD to Tony Pollard last Thursday (the only big play for the Cowboys' running game all night).

In other words, don't expect too much from Coleman, who has 27 carries for 125 yards and five catches for 22 yards in two games since Michael Carter injured his ankle. The workload may seem promising, but it's not quite what Carter was getting pre-injury, and even the talented rookie had his issues when Zach Wilson was at QB. If anything, I'd probably wait until Week 16 vs. JAX to take Coleman (or any other Jets RB) for a test drive.

Honorable Mentions: Darrell Henderson, LAR at ARZ; Devin Singletary, BUF at TB

Wide Receivers

Russell Gage (at CAR)

30% started

With 130 yards last week and 27 targets over his past three games, Gage belatedly has proven to be productive with Calvin Ridley (NFI/personal) out for Atlanta. The volume makes him a fine enough start in deep leagues, but he doesn't have good odds for another big week, given that he's a mediocre real-lifer player facing a top-10 pass defense. The Panthers are fifth in DVOA against the pass, 2nd in NY/A (5.5) and fifth in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and it's possible CB Stephon Gilmore is cleared for an every-down role after the Week 13 bye (Gilmore played 55 and 58 percent of defensive snaps in Carolina's last two games).

Christian Kirk (vs. LAR)

26% started

Kirk was a huge whiff for this space last week, limited to three yards and three targets after I put him in the 'upgrades' section. Kyler Murray's pass volume should rebound after only 15 attempts last week, but Kirk won't have nearly as favorable a matchup this time, likely dealing with Jalen Ramsey in the slot for a good chunk of the game. The Rams' defense may not be dominant this year, but Ramsey is as good as ever.

Honorable Mentions: Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton & Sterling Shepard, NYG at LAC; Rashod Bateman, BAL at CLE

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee (at ARZ)

53% started

We're still waiting on Higbee to get more work with Robert Woods (knee) out for the season, with vacated targets thus far going to the other wide receivers for the most part. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have allowed the fourth fewest points to tight ends, including limiting Higbee to 4-36-0 on six targets back in Week 4.