This article is part of our Dynasty Strategy series.
RotoWire's sharpest football writers recently squared off in our third dynasty superflex rookie mock draft of the 2022 season. You can see our first rookie mock, pre-combine draft here. To view rookie mock draft 2.0 conducted in March click here. This exercise should help you get a feel for where the rookies are getting drafted. We provide a pick justification for each player drafted. Our third draft was five rounds.
PARTICIPANTS & DRAFT ORDER
- Jeff Erickson - RotoWire Co-Founder
- Jason Shebilske - RotoWire Writer
- Shane Seeley - The Flex Network
- Alan Seslowsky - RotoWire Youtube, Video Editor
- John McKechnie - FSWA College Writer of the Year
- Joe Bartel - RotoWire Football Contributor & SiriusXM host
- Jordan Mazzara - NFL Writer covering the Seahawks
- Mario Puig - RotoWire Senior Writer/SiriusXM host
- Ryan Pohle - RotoWire Writer; High Stakes Fantasy Footballer
- Michael Spero - RotoWire Writer
- Jim Coventry - Rotowire NFL, '21 King's Classic Champ
- Ilango Villoth - RotoWire NFL Notes Guru
FORMAT
PPR: Yes
QBs: Superflex
Final Positional Count: QB = 6, RB = 17, WR = 21, TE = 4
Total Players Selected: 60
ROUND 1 TAKEAWAYS
- Breece Hall is the consensus No. 1 overall pick in any format
- Drake London, Kenneth Walker and Kenny Pickett form a multi-positional tier two
- WR is deep enough to trade back in round 1
Round 1 Summary
Jets running back Breece Hall has become the consensus first pick in all formats. Jeff Erickson did not overthink the pick or side with the "WR Truthers." Young RBs with high pedigree and a three-down skillset are gold in fantasy football. Jason Shebilske clicked the button on Drake London, who was the first WR off the board in the real NFL draft. London is a prototypical alpha WR who is defensible as the top pick in rookie drafts.
Shane Seeley opted to take Seattle's second-round pick, running back Kenneth Walker, with the third pick. Walker has become a polarizing rookie pick in fantasy football. He has elite running skills but did not have the pass-catching production his critics would like to have seen. Alan Seslowsky didn't let Steelers first-round rookie QB Kenny Pickett fall past four overall. In superflex leagues, where you can start two QBs, Pickett is a valuable asset. Even if Pickett is below average in the NFL, his first-round draft capital should insulate him for at least two years in the NFL as a starter.
John McKechnie jumped ahead of ADP to take Saints WR Chris Olave with the fifth pick. Olave may not have the theoretical upside as some of the players selected later in the round, but he has a high floor for immediate and long-term production. Olave has a chance to be an every week fantasy starter from Week 1. Joe Bartel lands one of the best values of round one at pick six. Joe turned in the card for Tennessee's Treylon Burks. Burks has the highest upside of any player in this class due to his immediate projected opportunity and diverse skill set he put on film at Arkansas.
Garrett Wilson, the Jets' first round-rookie WR, was picked by Jordan Mazzara from the seven spot. Wilson was the top WR prospect for many credible evaluators pre-draft. The Jets have uncertainty with QB Zach Wilson and a crowded room of pass catchers. All reasons why Garrett Wilson fell to the middle of the round. Mario Puig elected to take Jameson Williams with pick eight. Jared Goff is a long-term concern and fellow perimeter burner DJ Chark is an immediate obstacle, but Williams' own talent indicates star potential once he's back to full speed from his ACL tear.
Ryan Pohle trust the Steelers with their WR success over the years and took George Pickens at pick nine. Pickens may have an opportunity for targets right away with JuJu Smith-Schuster now in Kansas City. Michael Spero faced a draft dilemma many will encounter, deciding between team context and draft capital. Michael opted to roster Christian Watson, who had an impressive pre-draft process. Watson is now tied to the arm of 2022 MVP Aaron Rodgers.
Jim Coventry is laughing all the way to the bank, that Chiefs WR Skyy Moore fell to 11. Moore was being talked about as a first-round talent and is connected with Patrick Mahomes for his career. Moore's ADP has been in the middle of round 1. Moore is major value at this spot in drafts. Ilango Villoth reached ahead of ADP to secure Browns third-round receiver David Bell. Bell's resume has a massive production profile but disappointed athletically at the combine. Bell has that "pro-ready" look to his game, and could be a surprising producer once he gets in sync with Deshaun Watson.
ROUND 2 TAKEAWAYS
- Round 2 is where the "injury away" RB depth lives
- Lack of draft capital = suppressed QB value
- Commanders WR Jahan Dotson is undervalued
Round 2 Summary
Every year a wide receiver with round 1 draft capital falls out of the first round of rookie drafts due to team context. In 2020, Brandon Aiyuk was picked in the first round of the NFL Draft and had a rookie draft ADP of 16. In 2021 it was Kadarius Toney who was ignored until pick 20 of rookie drafts. In 2022, drafters are dubious of Commanders playmaker Jahan Dotson. The perception that Dotson will have to compete with Terry McLaurin for targets along with being tied to Carson Wentz for 2022, is causing F.U.D (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) amount dynasty players.
Jeff Erickson and Joe Bartel took upside swings on QBs Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder, respectively. Both dynamic passers plummeted down the NFL Draft board to the third round, but each has the mobility to be fantasy relevant should the opportunity arise. Jim Coventry snuck Panthers QB Matt Corral on his roster at the end of the second round.
ROUND 3 TAKEAWAYS
- Round 3 is deep with draft capital-relevant players
- TEs are worth consideration
- Final Tier of WRs that could start Week 1
Round 3 Summary
During the season, trading third-round rookie picks are viewed as "throw ins" to get a bigger trade complete. When it comes time for your rookie draft, it becomes clear there are players dynasty managers want to roster. The 2022 class is filled with promising prospects in round 3. Running backs Ty Davis-Price of the 49ers and Keaontay Ingram of the Cardinals are both in the mix for immediate touches. The Patriots were called out for their reach of Tyquan Thornton in round 2 of the NFL Draft. New England must have a plan for Thornton who profiles as a "take the top off the defense" style of player.
ROUND 4 TAKEAWAYS
- RB Tyler Allgeier is an incredible value
- Colt's TE Jelani Woods is the ultimate upside pick
- Hassan Haskins is a sleeper RB2
Round 4 Summary
Dynasty players understand that fourth-round rookie picks have a low probability to hit. There is still value to drafting running backs, who will be the RB2 or RB3 on their NFL teams. As injuries start to mount, the depth chart ascension begins for the Day 3 players and undrafted free agents. Drafting TEs is a great strategy if you have the roster space or taxi squad to let them incubate. Those who play in dynasty leagues with 10 bench spots or fewer are better off trading picks for veteran options.
ROUND 5 TAKEAWAYS
- Dart Throw Picks Can Work Out
- QB Carson Strong is a sneaky superflex stash
- Bears RB Trestan Ebner is a player to watch
Round 5 Summary
Dynasty players often become attached to their rookie draft picks. We are all guilty of holding on too long. Round 5 rookie picks are better thought of as glorified waiver-wire pickups. When a better option reveals itself on the waiver wire, it is OK to cut a player you drafted late if he does not show a path to relevance in short order. RotoWire does not advise drafting long-term holds, unless you have large rosters or taxi squad space.
CONCLUSION
RotoWire's third rookie mock draft exercise of 2022 was a success. Performing a mock draft in June with knowledgeable competitors is a great way to gauge our evaluations versus the market ADPs. Stay close to RotoWire's news feed and offseason articles as the player values are likely to change when injuries strike and depth charts shuffle.
Comment below which players YOU thought were the best values or biggest reaches of the draft.
