This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Football is back! Thank goodness because at this point I think we all can use it. On a weekly basis I'll go over some wagers I like using the Draftkings mobile app which can be downloaded on most phones. Check your local requirements to see if you can legally use the mobile app but also be aware that while it's not legal in states like New York, there are Draftkings sportsbooks that can used if you want to wager in person.
Game Lines
Over the years my father has given me many pieces of "wisdom" (that's debatable) and one of those was from a college professor who claimed to have the NFL figured out. His theory was to bet the home underdogs where the opposing team was playing on a change of field (i.e. turf vs. grass). While that isn't applicable to today's game I think there is something about betting home teams who are underdogs, even in this mostly fan-less environment. The four games I like this week that fit that mold are the Bengals +3, the Panthers +2.5, the Washington Team +5.5 and Jaguars +7.5. I'd even sprinkle in some money line bets on those teams as well, especially with the latter two.
I'm expecting a heavy dose of running back play in the Bills/Jets game and therefore I like the under even with it being a low number at 39.5. Le'Veon Bell and the combo of Devin Singletary/Zack Moss should end up eating a lot of clock. I don't mid a parlay of the under with the Bills -6.5 either. The spread doesn't make sense given the Jets are without Jamal Adams and C.J. Mosley on the defensive side of the ball.
The over in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game seems like it should be in the 50s but is only 48 on DraftKings. Both teams should be able to move the ball up and down the field and there won't be any weather issues playing in a dome. Expect this game to be a shootout.
Player Props
I like looking at the Miami/New England game because they have two of the best corners in the league in Xavien Howard and Stephon Gilmore. Both should be covering Julian Edelman and DeVante Parker making both N'Keal Harry and Preston Williams interesting options. Williams is +275 to score an anytime touchdown while Harry is +240. I'm backing both and expecting to hit with one of them to turn a profit.
While I'm backing the Panthers, I do like Josh Jacobs to find the end zone at -182. I normally don't like playing odds like that but I think there's still value at those odds given the usage I expect the Raiders to give him. I also think Henry Ruggs over 40.5 receiving yards is a good wager as well, especially with Tyrell Williams being out for the season.
James Robinson will be the starter for the Jaguar and should handle the bulk of the workload. With an over/under of 39.5 rushing yards, it seems like he should be able to go over that amount pretty easily with double-digit carries.
DJ Chark was a 1,000-yard receiver last season yet he's not getting much respect for his home matchup this weekend. His over/under for receiving yards is at a mere 55.5 this week, putting the over very much in play.
Fast forwarding to Sunday night, its seems like a good idea to back Dak Prescott with the over on his passing yards. That's set 287.5 and with an over/under in the game of 51.5 yards, there should be plenty of scoring. Throw in the over/under for receiving yards is Ezekiel Elliott (26.5), Michael Gallup (67.5), Ceedee Lamb (51.5), Amari Cooper (68.5) and Blake Jarwin (35.5) and that adds up to 240.5. The thought here one of those receivers hits a big play and eclipses 100 yards helping Dak hit the over. Don't be surprised if he's the top fantasy quarterback this season.
Finally, let's take a look at Monday night's games. Tennessee travels to Denver and unfortunately we won't have the pleasure of seeing Von Miller play. I think Drew Lock takes a big step forward and even if Courtland Sutton sits this one out, there's enough talent at the wide receiver and running back spots to hit over 9.5 points in the first half.
Hope you enjoyed the premier of this piece, any questions, comments, concerns hit up the comments section.
