DraftKings NFL: Week 6 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate features 11 games, one arguably the game of the season. Buffalo at Kansas City has a 54-point total, and many expect a shootout after the teams combined for 78 points in last year's playoff epic. That game will an incredibly popular target for game stacks. As will the Cardinals-Seahawks game, which has a 50.5-point total and some clear value options on each side. 

I can't emphasize enough how popular those spots will be, considering that no other game has a total above 46. If you can stomach the risk, game theory would say to fade those spots if you want the best chance of winning a tournament. The problem is that you'd have almost no chance to win if those games go as expected. I think it makes sense to eat some of the chalk you like best and look for leverage in other spots. With the field so focused on those two matchups, players with comparable ceilings will be less popular than usual. It's a great week to embrace the risk and take some chances. Good Luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, combined with passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson at CLE ($6,000)

The status of Damien Harris will be important to monitor because if he's out, Stevenson would project as the best value at RB from a point-per-dollar standpoint. After Harris left injured last week, Stevenson carried 25 times for 161 yards. He's also caught at least two passes in four of five games this season. The Patriots want to run the ball as much as any team in the league and Sunday's matchup looks pretty good against a shaky Cleveland defensive line. If Harris ends up playing and we don't get the Stevenson value, consider Darrell Henderson ($5,100), who will be the lead back for the Rams with Cam Akers out. 

• WR Tyler Lockett vs. ARI ($5,600)

It feels like I'm highlighting Lockett every week but DraftKings just refuses to raise his salary for whatever reason. He's priced the same as last week when he had 104 yards and two TDs on his way to 30 DK points. Sunday's matchup against Arizona is an even better spot too as it has the second-highest total on the slate and should set up well for Seattle's passing attack. Lockett  averaged nine targets in his last four games and that combined with the cheap price has him projecting as the top value at WR. If you're looking for even cheaper value, consider Rondale Moore ($4,200) in the same game. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Josh Allen at KC ($8,200)

QB Tom Brady at PIT ($6,300)

QB Geno Smith at ARI ($5,700)

RB Christian McCaffrey at LAR ($8,300)

RB Saquon Barkley vs. BAL ($7,700)

RB Leonard Fournette at PIT ($7,400)

RB Joe Mixon at NO ($6,900)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. CIN ($6,700)

RB Breece Hall at GB ($5,800)

RB Kenneth Walker at ARI ($5,400)

RB Darrell Henderson vs. CAR ($5,100)

RB Eno Benjamin at SEA ($4,600), if James Conner is out

WR Stefon Diggs at KC ($8,400)

WR DK Metcalf vs. ARI ($6,800)

WR Chris Godwin at PIT ($6,100)

WR Tyler Lockett at ARI ($5,600)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. BUF ($4,500)

WR Rondale Moore at SEA ($4,200)

TE Mark Andrews at NYG ($7,000)

TE Zach Ertz at SEA ($4,900)

TE Tyler Higbee vs. CAR ($4,600)

D/ST Jacksonville Jaguars at IND ($3,000)

D/ST New England Patriots at CLE ($2,900)

D/ST New Orleans Saints vs. CIN ($2,800)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Buffalo Bills (28.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (25.75)

BILLS

This is the marquee matchup of the season as it features the top two QBs and the two highest-scoring offenses. Its 54-point total is the highest we've seen, so, of course, it will be a popular target for stacks. Last season's playoff game is fresh in people's minds after these teams combined for 78 points in what was one of the best games in years. Josh Allen ($8,200), like usual, projects as the top overall QB. He's topped 30 DK points in four of five games (bad weather held him to 24 against the Ravens), and this Kansas City defense should have no answers for him. The Chiefs have been much better against the running game this season, which only favors Allen and his WRs more. Stefon Diggs ($8,400) looks like a bit of a bargain in this spot after getting back on track with eight catches for 102 yards and a TD last week. He averages more than 10 targets per game and would likely see more than that Sunday if the game shoots out. Gabe Davis ($6,500) exploded last week for 171 yards and two TDs on just three catches. Many will remember his outrageous stat line in last year's playoffs when he caught eight for 201 yards and four TDs. He's becoming known for his big-play ability and it gives him an especially high ceiling. Isaiah McKenzie ($5,000) will return after clearing concussion protocol and he'll have the slot role mostly to himself with Jamison Crowder on IR. He'll go mostly overlooked with most people focused on Diggs and Davis. Dawson Knox ($3,400) appears on track to return after missing last week. He hasn't done much this season but that's a cheap enough price for a player with two-TD upside. Devin Singletary's ($5,900) snap share and touches have been inconsistent, but he's who the Bills trust in close games and important games. He's better to roster in a matchup like this than in one where Buffalo is a 14-point favorite. 

CHIEFS

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) is coming off another four-touchdown game as he led the Chiefs to a big comeback win over the Raiders on Monday night. Buffalo's defense is good but its secondary is banged up. Mahomes torched the Bills in the playoffs for 378 yards and even added 69 on the ground. He won't be as popular as Josh Allen, which only adds to his appeal. Travis Kelce ($7,800) may have only had 25 receiving yards Monday night, but he caught all four of Mahomes' TDs. Mark Andrews ($7,000) will be the more popular spend up option at TE, which again, adds to Kelce's appeal. The Chiefs have a trio of WRs who are all relatively cheap. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,200) has started rather slowly but has still drawn eight targets in three consecutive games. You'd think it's only a matter of time before he scores his first TD as a Chief. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,500) projects the best of the three from a point-per-dollar standpoint. He also has the most upside based on his big-play ability as a deep threat. Mecole Hardman ($4,000) will go somewhat overlooked but is coming off his best game of the season where he made some clutch plays down the stretch. He's the type of player who can always score a long TD and it only takes one at that salary. I'll avoid Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,300). Not only is it a tough matchup, but there are other RBs priced above and below that project considerably better. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Allen + WR Diggs + WR Davis + WR Valdes-Scantling or WR Hardman

Arizona Cardinals (26.5) at Seattle Seahawks (24)

CARDINALS

This games has the second-highest total and should be a great spot for Arizona's passing game. Cardinals running backs are banged up and Seattle's defense grades near the bottom of the league in pass rush and coverage, which has resulted allowing the second-most points in the league. Kyler Murray ($7,300) rushed for a season-high 42 yards last week and he had 12 rushing attempts the week before. The rushing numbers are encouraging because he doesn't often put up big fantasy scores solely through the air. He will have to Sunday, however, as James Conner and Darrel Williams are both out. That makes Eno Benjamin ($4,600) one of the best cheap value options on the slate. He's already drawn four targets in four of five games this season and should see upwards of 20 touches in a soft matchup. Marquise Brown ($7,200) has drawn double-digit targets in four consecutive games and he's scored at least 20 DK points in three straight. For me, he's a must if you're rostering Murray. Rondale Moore ($4,200) caught seven of eight targets for 68 yards last week. He's just too cheap for his role in this spot and will be popular value option at WR because of it. Zach Ertz ($4,900) continues to see big volume as he drew 10 targets for the third time in four games last week. He projects as one of the better TEs and could have a big game if he finds the end zone. 

SEAHAWKS

Seattle continues to be surprisingly fantasy-friendly on offense. They rank first in offensive DVOA, fourth in point-per-snap and fifth in pace. Geno Smith ($5,700) continued his stellar season with three more TDs last week. He's now topped 22 DK points in three consecutive games and projects as one of the better value options on Sunday. DK Metcalf ($6,800) has had three nice games in a row. He's averaged 10 targets in that span and his salary is still rather affordable for the type of upside his possesses. DraftKings just refuses to raise Tyler Lockett's ($5,600) salary, and he's going to be quite popular again after 104 yards and two TDs last week. The nice thing about Seattle's passing game is that the target distribution is narrow. Smith almost always looks to either Metcalf or Lockett. Kenneth Walker ($5,400) is expected to serve as the lead back in the absence of Rashaad Penny. Walker had a 69-yard TD last week and he should see upwards of 20 touches on Sunday which has him projected as one of the better RB values on the board. 

• Favorite Stack: QB Murray + RB Walker + WR Brown + WR Metcalf/WR Lockett + TE Ertz

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Gabe Davis + TE Travis Kelce +/- WR Isaiah McKenzie

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling + WR Mecole Hardman

QB Patrick Mahomes + WR Gabe Davis + WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling + TE Travis Kelce

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Devin Duvernay + TE Mark Andrews 

QB Kyler Murray + RB Kenneth Walker + WR Marquise Brown + WR Rondale Moore

QB Geno Smith + RB Eno Benjamin + WR DK Metcalf and/or WR Tyler Lockett

QB Geno Smith + WR DK Metcalf and/or WR Tyler Lockett + TE Zach Ertz or WR Rondale Moore 

High-Priced Heroes 

• WR Stefon Diggs at KC ($8,400)

Diggs is averaging more than 10 targets, 100 yards and a TD through fives games. The Chiefs defense and specifically their secondary have no answers for him and Allen. He's actually a bit of a bargain in this spot as he projects higher than Justin Jefferson and close to Cooper Kupp. Much of that is due to the game environment as the matchup with Kansas City is expected to be a shootout and has a massive 54-point total. 

• TE Mark Andrews at NYG ($7,000)

Andrews has at least eight catches in three of his last four games and has caught four TDs in that span as he's established himself as the top receiving tight-end in football. Another reason to like him this week is that he won't be overly popular. People will prefer to spend up at the other positions and some that spend up at TE will chose Travis Kelce over Andrews. Lastly, Rashod Bateman is expected out, which should all but guarantee a big target share for Andrews on Sunday in a favorable matchup against the Giants. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700); TE Travis Kelce ($7,800); RB Nick Chubb ($8,200); WR Justin Jefferson ($8,900)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range

• RB Saquon Barkley vs. BAL ($7,700)

Barkley projects better than expected in this spot as the Ravens are allowing 5.0 yards per carry and have given up the second-most catches in the league to running backs. He's also looked really good this season and his salary has dropped a bit. The decision to fade him here is twofold. First, the running back position is loaded this week and there are about five cheaper backs that I prefer over Barkley. And second, I'm worried about the likely game script as I'm not confident in the Giants hanging with the Ravens. Barkley only had 13 carries against the Packers last week, and we could see something like that again if the Giants are trailing throughout. 

I'll fade Cooper Kupp ($9,700) as well. It's not that I don't like him, of course, but he's so expensive and there is just too much opportunity cost this week. On the other hand, if you plan on fading the Bills-Chiefs game, Kupp is a great option.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Kenneth Walker vs. ARI ($5,400)

Walker, a second-round rookie, is expected to take over as the lead back in the absence of Rashaad Penny. Walker is fast and he breaks tackles. He's coming off a 69-yard TD last week and he's shown he can catch passes as well. He's just too cheap for that role in a matchup that has the second-highest total on the slate. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,500); WR Rondale Moore ($4,200); Eno Benjamin ($4,600), if James Conner is out

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith vs. ARI ($5,700)

QB Daniel Jones vs. BAL ($5,200)

RB Eno Benjamin at SEA ($4,600)

WR Isaiah McKenzie at KC ($5,000)

WR Romeo Doubs vs. NYJ ($4,900)

WR Devin Duvernay at NYG ($4,700)

WR George Pickens vs. TB ($4,600)

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. BUF ($4,500)

WR Rondale Moore at SEA ($4,200)

WR Mecole Hardman vs. BUF ($4,000)

TE Dawson Knox at KC ($3,400)

TE Hayden Hurst at NO ($3,300)

TE Irv Smith at MIA ($3,200)

Injuries to Monitor 

• RB Damien Harris at CLE

Harris, who has a hamstring injury, is not expected to play. I mentioned at the top that Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000) would project among the best values on the slate if Harris were to miss. 

• RB James Conner at SEA

Conner is out with a rib injury. Eno Benjamin ($4,600) will step into the lead role and projects among the best value on the slate as well. 

• WR Tee Higgins at NO

Higgins is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. If he were to miss, the likes of Ja'Marr Chase ($7,700), Tyler Boyd ($5,100) and Hayden Hurst ($3,300) could see a bump in target share. I'd have more interest in them than I would in Higgins replacement, Mike Thomas ($3,000). 

Weather 

Nothing to be considered about this week. It will be a bit cold in Green Bay with temps in the 40s.