This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
These are my favorite DraftKings plays for Week 4, picking strictly from the 12-game Sunday slate (as of Thursday afternoon). At the end of the page, I'll briefly touch on the Thursday night (Cardinals-49ers, gross) and Monday night (Bucs-Panthers) games, which are part of the Thursday-Monday 14-game slate on DK. Keep in mind that injuries are really starting to take a toll, making it harder to offer advice on Thursday than it was earlier in the season. I'll post some updates in the comments Friday or Saturday, but for the time being, we'll have to make a few assumptions based on the informations available as of Thursday morning/afternoon.
Quarterback
Andrew Luck, IND (vs. CHI), $7,300 – This is a nice spot to get Luck at low ownership against a bad defense, as the masses will presumably flock to similarly-priced Tom Brady ($7,500), and to a lesser extent to Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200). I've actually been impressed by Chicago's ability to remain semi-competitive while mauled by injuries, but a road game in Indianapolis could be when the dam breaks. This game sneakily has some back-and-forth shootout potential, as the Chicago offense has looked better since Brian Hoyer took over, and the Indy defense is still failing to impress. I do prefer the guy mentioned next, but Luck makes for an interesting pivot. I'm not a fan of the discount quarterbacks this week, with Hoyer being a possible exception, or perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick if you're feeling really brave (you aren't).
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (vs. NYJ), $7,200 – Big Ben has thrown at least three touchdown passes in five consecutive home games, most recently tearing apart a respectable Kansas City defense to the tune of 300 yards and five scores...on only 27 attempts. If the Chiefs offense had been able to make a game of it, Roethlisberger might've even reached 350+ yards and six touchdowns, which he essentially did in back-to-back games (both at home) during the 2014 season. No quarterback's big games are bigger, making Roethlisberger a strong GPP option in nearly any matchup, particularly when he's playing at Heinz Field. It should be more of the same this weekend, as the Jets defend the run much better than the pass, allowing a meager 3.1 yards per carry and a near-unthinkable 9.7 yards per pass attempt. Darrelle Revis (hamstring) is no longer a superstar, but his likely absence still helps Roethlisberger's cause, considering who will be replacing him -- trust me, it's nobody you've heard of unless you're a diehard Jets fan. While Roethlisberger won't fly under the radar like he did last week, Tom Brady's popularity should keep Ben's ownership at reasonable levels in most contests.
Other options:Derek Carr, OAK (vs. SD), $6,800; Eli Manning, NYG (at GB), $6,000; Brian Hoyer, CHI (at IND), $5,500; Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ (at PIT), $5,100
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon, MIN (vs. HOU), $4,000 – While solid against the pass even without J.J. Watt (IR-back), the Texans are surrendering 4.6 yards per carry, with six of their opponents' seven touchdowns on offense coming via the ground. Matt Asiata will still get the goal-line work, but McKinnon holds a 38-15 advantage in touches since Adrian Peterson (knee) went down for the season. With McKinnon coming off a performance of 18.5 DK points in a tough matchup against the Giants, there's no better bet to exceed value at the position.
DeAndre Washington, OAK (vs. SD), $3,400 – If there is a better bet to exceed value than McKinnon, it would have to be the likely fill-in starter for an injured Latavius Murray (toe). This is another situation in which multiple backs figure to be involved, but even with Jalen Richard poaching some snaps and fullback Jamize Olawale posing a threat at the goal line, Washington should comfortably reach double-digit touches against a San Diego defense that's allowed the second-most points to opposing running backs. I actually used Washington in a couple lineup last week, as his pass-catching prowess gives him upside even if the Raiders fall behind. The fifth-round rookie caught 30-plus balls in each of his final three seasons at Texas Tech, and he's already proven to be a better runner than most expected, averaging 6.4 yards on his 23 carries.
Other options: Le'Veon Bell, PIT (vs. NYJ), $7,500; LeSean McCoy, BUF (at LA), $6,600; Lamar Miller, HOU (at MIN), $6,300; Theo Riddick, DET (vs. PHI), $4,900; Terrance West, BAL (vs. WAS), $4,800; Ryan Mathews, PHI (vs. DET), $4,600; Tevin Coleman, ATL (at DEN), $4,100
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton, IND (vs. CHI), $7,400 – Given that I recommended Ben Roethlisberger, let's just skip the part where I point out that Antonio Brown ($9,800) is once again a strong play, even with his increasingly robust price tag making a strong push toward five figures. As for Hilton, I promise I'm recommending him because he's averaging 11 targets per game, and not because I like walking around my house motioning 'T-Y-T-Y-T-Y' with my arms. Sure, the second part is fun, but what we're really after is the likelihood of high volume against a poor defense, with those passes coming from the hand of a very good quarterback. Until Donte Moncrief (shoulder) returns, Hilton should be viewed as a weekly top-10 option at wide receiver.
Steve Smith, BAL (vs. WAS), $5,300 – Against all odds, Smith has rapidly re-emerged as Joe Flacco's favorite option, averaging 9.3 targets, six catches and 70 yards per game while still less than a year removed from a double Achilles rupture suffered at the age of 36. (Please, read that sentence again -- Yes, Steve Smith was created by wizards, definitely not two humans.) A possible matchup with Josh Norman may seem concerning, but the Ravens move Smith around enough that it shouldn't be too much of an issue. The 37-year-old will continue to be a bargain until his price reaches $6,000, and it helps that Washington's other starting cornerback, Bashaud Breeland (ankle), may miss another game. On an irrelevant but interesting note, Norman may be the league's only cornerback who doesn't despite Smith -- it sounds like there's some leftover friendship from their time in Carolina.
Quincy Enunwa, NYJ (at PIT), $4,600 – This assumes Eric Decker (shoulder) will miss another game, which isn't exactly a leap of faith, considering he was absent from practice both Wednesday and Thursday. The pass-first Jets offense is thus left with Enunwa, Brandon Marshall ($7,100), Matt Forte ($6,200) and….yup, that's about it. In any case, Enunwa is already averaging eight targets per game, even though Decker has only missed one contest so far. Now the team's primary slot man, at least temporarily, Enunwa could reach double-digit targets in a matchup that will likely force his team to play from behind. While I also like Marshall in this spot, Roethlisberger-Brown-Enunwa might be my favorite stack of the week.
Other options:Antonio Brown, PIT (vs. NYJ), $9,800; A.J. Green, CIN (at DAL), $8,900; Odell Beckham, NYG (at GB), $8,500; Jordy Nelson, GB (vs. NYG), $7,900; Brandon Marshall, NYJ (at PIT), $7,100; Jarvis Landry, MIA (vs. TEN), $7,000; Jordan Matthews, PHI (at DET), $6,800; Tyrell Williams, SD (at OAK), $4,700; Chris Hogan, NE (at CLE), $4,100; Dontrelle Inman, SD (at OAK), $4,100; Robert Woods, BUF (at LA), $3,900; Tavon Austin, LA (vs. BUF), $3,700
Tight End
Zach Ertz, PHI (at DET), $3,500 – The Lions held up okay against another Zach last week, surrendering three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown to Chicago's Zach Miller, who I recommended (with middling results) in this space. Of course, Detroit has still allowed the second-most DK points to tight ends, despite facing an unimpressive slate at the position, with the exception of Tennessee's Delanie Walker in Week 2. Now back at full strength after missing two weeks with a rib injury, Zach Ertz might be the most underpriced player on Sunday's slate, as he's locked in as either Carson Wentz's favorite or second-favorite option in a surprisingly potent Philadelphia offense. Ertz had a modest 6-58-0 receiving line in Week 1, but you may remember that he was the most productive player at his position over the final four weeks of last season. Dating back to last season, I think I've now recommended Ertz in each of the last four weeks he was available for.
Other options:Delanie Walker, TEN (at MIA), $4,700; Kyle Rudolph, MIN (vs. HOU), $3,600; Gary Barnidge, CLE (vs. NE), $3,200; Will Tye, NYG (at GB), $2,600
Team D/ST
Minnesota Vikings (vs. HOU), $3,400 – As much as I hate to go with the popular choice at such an unpredictable position, there's no denying that the Vikings present an excellent expected points-per-dollar value. With the Broncos facing a red-hot Atlanta offense and the Seahawks on bye, Minnesota sits atop my Week 5 team defense rankings, and it isn't even close to being close. Easily the highest scoring defense through four weeks, Minnesota somehow only carries the fifth-highest price tag among D/ST units, despite drawing a favorable matchup at home. The Texans have allowed the 10th most points to opposing team defenses, with Brock Osweiler already throwing six interceptions. I love the Vikings D-Jerick McKinnon stack.
Other options: St. Louis Rams (vs. BUF), $3,200; Baltimore Ravens (vs. WAS), $3,000; Philadelphia Eagles (at DET), $2,900; Indianapolis Colts (vs. CHI), $2,600; Tennessee Titans (at MIA), $2,400
Extended Slate
Arizona at San Francisco – With Carson Palmer (concussion) unavailable, the San Francisco defense ($2,600) is a sneakily decent play that will surely have low ownership, though it's worth noting that team leader Navorro Bowman (knee) is out for the rest of the season. All of Arizona's receiving options can safely be avoided, leaving David Johnson ($7,900) as the only reasonable choice from that offense (I'd still rather wait for Le'Veon Bell or some of the other top RBs playing Sunday). As for the Niners, I guess we could run back Carlos Hyde ($4,800), hoping his ownership will drop after last week's mediocre showing in a spot where he was extremely popular. However, Hyde is more expensive this time around, and he's also facing a better defense. He's probably the best play from this game, but I don't feel any pressing need to get him in more than one or two lineups. I'll be watching the Red Sox-Indians game, in case you were wondering.
Tampa Bay at Carolina – Cam Newton (concussion - $7,900) will come at low ownership in a favorable matchup...if he ends up playing. Otherwise, Mike Evans ($7,500) is a strong play, but I'm not seeing anything else appealing about this game. I guess you'd pair Greg Olsen ($6,300) with Cam (and Mike Evans) if you end up making the late switch -- but it's a really expensive trio at $21,700, and we may not know Newton's availability until Monday. You'd want to have another QB-WR-TE stack lined up in the same price range, ready to swap it out if you do decide to go with Cam and friends. FYI: Roethlisberger-A.B.-Delanie Walker also adds up to $21,700, and Luck-Hilton-Jordan Reed ($21,300) isn't too far off.
