This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
I typically examine some unsettled injury situations, but with the article posted later than usual this week, let's get right down to my favorite plays for Week 12 on DraftKings…
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (at SEA), $6,700 – Roethlisberger is even better than what he gets credit for, and a huge percentage of his passes are directed at either Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant. I'm not going to trash the Seattle defense, but it is hard to ignore the drastic difference in outcomes depending on the strength of the opponent's quarterback. The Seahawks shut down Jimmy Clausen, Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick and Matt Cassel, whereas Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer were all able to get the best of this once-vaunted defense. The 'Hawks still have a beastly front seven to go along with three great players in the secondary, but their ridiculous collection of high-end talent has sometimes been overshadowed by a lack of depth at cornerback. I am a fan of Seahawks cornerback Jeremy Lane (knee), but he isn't going to provide the solution in his first game back from a torn ACL and broken arm that he suffered in the Super Bowl. Above all else, it's great to get an extremely high-upside stack like Roethlisberger-Antonio Brown or Roethlisberger-Martavis Bryant when the ownership rates are far lower than usual.
Other options:Eli Manning, NYG (at WAS), $6,500; Russell Wilson, SEA (vs. PIT), $6,000; Marcus Mariota, TEN (vs. OAK), $5,500; Josh McCown, CLE (vs. BAL), $5,000; Brian Hoyer, HOU (vs. NO), $5,000
Running Back
T.J. Yeldon, JAX (vs. SD), $4,800 – It's slightly concerning that Denard Robinson, for seemingly no good reason, got the goal-line carries in Jacksonville's last game. However, there's still a ton to like here, with Yeldon consistently playing the vast majority of snaps, including on passing downs. He'll face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, and with so many solid options available at a slightly cheaper price, Yeldon should be under 20 percent owned in most large tournaments. He's yet to have a truly big game, but it should finally happen this week, as the Chargers have surrendered 4.9 yards per carry and 126 rushing yards per game. No team has given up more DraftKings points to running backs this season.
Javorius Allen, BAL (at CLE), $4,600 – Allen would normally be the week's most popular choice in this spot, expected to handle a three-down workload against a team that's been shredded by opposing running backs for the past two seasons. Of course, he won't actually be the most popular play this week, as Thomas Rawls is $100 cheaper and just had a massive game. Rawls is the more talented runner, but I'm having a hard time figuring out why his team is favored to win, which is worrisome for a running back who won't get much passing-down work. Allen, on the other hand, may actually stand to benefit if the Ravens fall behind. He's an excellent receiver and should see plenty of dump-off targets from the dumpster fire that is Matt Schaub. Rawls' upside is obviously appealing, but I'd rather fade him than Allen, as the latter has a higher floor. Barring an injury, Allen is a lock for double-digit points with PPR scoring. Atlanta's Tevin Coleman is a similarly strong option.
Other options:Adrian Peterson, MIN (at ATL), $7,300; Chris Ivory, NYJ (vs. MIA), $5,800; Chris Johnson, ARI (vs. SF), $4,600; Thomas Rawls, SEA (vs. PIT), $4,500; Giovani Bernard, CIN (vs. STL), $4,500; Tevin Coleman, ATL (vs. MIN), $4,300; Spencer Ware, KC (vs. BUF), $3,800
Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham, NYG (at WAS), $8,700 – The argument for DeAndre Hopkins is pretty obvious, and his high ownership rate will likely cause the other elite receivers to be a bit less popular than they should be, even though all of them have favorable matchups. I actually think Beckham is in an equally good spot, facing a bad Washington secondary that doesn't have any above-average cornerbacks. The New Orleans defense is clearly awful, but Hopkins will still have to contend with rookie cornerback Delvin Breaux, who has been excellent with the exception of a Week 8 matchup with Beckham. If ever there were a week to squeeze two (or even three) first-tier wideouts into a lineup, this would be it.
Martavis Bryant, PIT (at SEA), $5,600 – Antonio Brown, the NFL's best wide receiver and possibly best player, is averaging 33.8 DraftKings points in the six games Ben Roethlisberger has played this season. He's a solid option even with the expectation of shadow coverage from Richard Sherman, but I do think said coverage could lead to more targets for Bryant, an excellent player in his own right. He's already one of the league's best deep threats, which is especially useful when playing with Ben Roethlisberger. Per usual, Bryant is an excellent tournament option but only a decent choice for cash games.
Doug Baldwin, SEA (vs. PIT), $3,900 – Angry Doug inevitably has some quiet games when the Seahawks get out in front, but he's also capable of big outings (see: Weeks 2 and 10) whenever Russell Wilson has a reasonably busy day. If your lineup is already betting against highly-owned Thomas Rawls, why not use some of the players (SEA and PIT QB/WR/TE) who have negative correlations with him? Not to say I won't have any Jimmy Graham, but Baldwin is $1,000 cheaper and a superior real-life player, at least in my opinion.
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (vs. MIN), $9,400; DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (vs. NO), $9,100; Antonio Brown, PIT (at SEA), $8,700; Brandon Marshall, NYJ (vs. MIA), $6,800; Stefon Diggs, MIN (at ATL), $4,800; Stevie Johnson, SD (at JAX), $4,500; Willie Snead, NO (at HOU), $4,500; Donte Moncrief, IND (vs. TB), $4,400; Kendall Wright, TEN (vs. OAK), $4,400;
Tight End
Gary Barnidge, CLE (vs. BAL), $4,800 – I pretty much just hate the options at tight end this week, but Barndige is at least tolerable against a team he destroyed earlier in the season. This is also a decent spot to use Rob Gronkowski, who could carry his lowest ownership rate of the season in a matchup that should lead to plenty of targets. But I'm concerned that the injury-marred Patriots won't put up points, whereas Josh McCown and Co. figure to have some success against the Ravens.
Other options:Rob Gronkowski, NE (at DEN), $7,900; Delanie Walker, TEN (vs. OAK), $5,400; Jimmy Graham, SEA (vs. PIT), $4,800
Team Defense/Special Teams
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. STL), $3,000 – It's hard to pay up for a defense when there are so many reasonable options at $2,500 or less. Still, the Cincinnati D/ST is a bargain, facing a Case Keenum-Todd Gurley offense that's consistently up against eight-man boxes on first and second down. Even if Gurley breaks off a long touchdown, the Rams will likely end up playing from behind, at which point the game will almost certainly get ugly. Case Keenum's performance last week was the worst I've ever seen by a quarterback in person, even though I attended the majority of Ravens games between the 2000 Super Bowl year and Joe Flacco's rookie season in 2008. There was a whole lot of Kyle Boller between those two landmark years in Baltimore history, but the best TV series of all-time (with apologies to Arya Stark and Jesse Pinkman) more than makes up for it.
(Update: Nick Foles is expected to start, but he's marginally better than Keenum, if at all.)
Other options: Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BUF), $2,800; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at IND), $2,500; Tennessee Titans (vs. OAK), $2,200; Cleveland Browns (vs. BAL), $2,000; Indianapolis Colts (vs. TB), $2,000
