This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
As much as I love NFL DFS, the appeal of preseason, playoff and short-slate contests has always been lost on me. As such, this weekend (or Thursday) provides my first chance in more than eight months to really delve into things. The excitement initially made it a bit difficult to stay entirely rational, but after many hours of analysis over the past few weeks, I've finally whittled down my list of preferred Week 1 options. Granted, the Friday injury reports may throw a wrench in the works, but as always, the ability to adjust is just as important as the initial preparation process.
My favorite plays for Week 1 are listed below, picking strictly from the 13-game Sunday slate (as of Thursday morning). At the end of the page, I'll briefly touch on the 16-game slate that includes the Thursday and Monday night games.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston, TB (at ATL), $6,600 – A prime year-two leap candidate, Winston is perfectly positioned to start his potential breakout season on a high note, drawing a dome matchup with an Atlanta defense that (once again) looks ugly on paper. Priced as the 18th-most expensive quarterback among Week 1 starters, Winston also makes for a nice stacking option, as there's little question a big game from him will correspond with strong showings from Mike Evans ($7,400) and/or Vincent Jackson ($4,400). If you really want to round things out, Atlanta's Julio Jones ($9,400) is never a bad choice, especially against Tampa's perennially shaky secondary. Granted, a Winston-Evans-Jones stack doesn't leave too much room to operate, though it's less of an issue in Week 1 with so many cheap options on the board.
Dak Prescott, DAL (vs. NYG), $5,000 – I'm not putting too much stock in Prescott's ridiculous preseason stats -- 39 of 50 for 454 yards, with five passing TDs, two rushing scores and nary a turnover -- and yet it's hard to deny the appeal at this price tag. Even if we do give the Giants credit for rebuilding their defense in the offseason, Prescott is still a min-priced, dual-threat quarterback playing behind the league's best offensive line, with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Ezekiel Elliott in support. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley aren't bad either, but it's gonna be all about Dak, Dez and Zeke early in the season.
Other options:Andrew Luck, IND (vs. DET), $8,300; Drew Brees, NO (vs. OAK), $8,100; Matthew Stafford, DET (at IND), $7,200; Robert Griffin, CLE (at PHI), $5,600
Running Back
Matt Forte, NYJ (vs. CIN), $6,100 – The Jets offense is worth targeting even in difficult matchups, as there's little question where the production will come from when the unit has any measure of success. Forte, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker might just be the league's most potent triplets, and the Cincinnati defense will likely keep ownership numbers down, even though the unit is more "solid" than "excellent". Forte is all but a lock to get 15+ carries and at least 3-4 targets, though it remains to be seen if he'll truly be an every-down player, as was the case for part of his Chicago tenure. Even if Bilal Powell does mix in, Forte offers an excellent combo of floor and ceiling for this reasonable price.
Christine Michael, SEA (vs. MIA), $3,700 – Trying to decipher Pete Carroll's quotes is a fool's errand, as it's pretty clear no coach -- including Bill Belichick -- puts more thought or effort into being deceptive. It's therefore all but impossible to know how involved Thomas Rawls will be, making his return from last season's devastating ankle injury. My best guess is that Michael will have a 2:1 advantage in carries, with rookie C.J. Prosise likely getting some of the passing-down work. While not exactly a safe option, Michael has a ridiculous ceiling for this price, potentially serving as the lead rusher in a run-heavy offense that is heavily favored to pick up a Week 1 victory. The Miami defense, even if improved, doesn't figure to be any better than mediocre this year.
Other options:Lamar Miller, HOU (vs. CHI), $7,000; LeSean McCoy, BUF (at BAL), $6,400; Ryan Mathews, PHI (vs. CLE), $5,700; Spencer Ware, KC (vs. SD), $4,400
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper, OAK (at NO), $7,200 – The price seems high if you look at what Cooper did last season, but it seems quite low if you consider what most people expect him to do this year. If Winston is a "prime" year-two leap candidate, as I previously stated…well then Cooper is a super-extra-deluxe-prime candidate. No need to wait until his price rises, especially considering he draws a juicy Week 1 matchup in the SuperDome. I love the Brees-Snead-Cooper stack -- although to be fair, I love pretty much anything involving Willie Snead.
Marvin Jones, DET (at IND), $4,600 – Possibly my favorite Week 1 option, Jones was the first player I picked out as being underpriced on the first slate of the year. He was clearly Matthew Stafford's favorite target during the preseason, outplaying teammates Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, both of whom figure to mostly catch short passes. Jones, on the other hand, should stay busy all over the field, serving as Detroit's primary (only?) deep threat while also catching a number of short and intermediate passes. I'd like him in any matchup, but it certainly doesn't hurt that the Colts are banged up at cornerback, with Vontae Davis (ankle) already ruled out and Darius Butler (ankle) uncertain. I'm guessing Jones will fall closer to $6,500 or $7,000 by mid-season.
Terrelle Pryor, CLE (at PHI), $3,000 – With Josh Gordon suspended and Corey Coleman failing to impress in two preseason appearances on the heels of an injury-plagued training camp, it appears Pryor will enter the season as Cleveland's de facto No. 1 wide receiver. Sure, he hasn't been playing the position all that long, but a matchup with Philly's soft cornerback group should outweigh the lack of experience. Above all else, Pryor cost just $3,000 and figures to play the vast majority of offensive snaps. There is one other player meeting that criterion -- Titans rookie WR Tajae Sharpe, who has a much tougher matchup against Minnesota.
Other options:Julio Jones, ATL (vs. TB), $9,400; Odell Beckham, NYG (at DAL), $9,300; Brandon Marshall, NYJ (vs. CIN), $7,800; Mike Evans, TB (at ATL), $7,400; Sammy Watkins, BUF (at BAL), $6,900; Eric Decker, NYJ (vs. CIN), $6,600; Donte Moncrief, IND (vs. DET), $6,000; Allen Hurns, JAX (vs. GB), $5,800; Willie Snead, NO (vs. OAK), $4,800; Vincent Jackson, TB (at ATL), $4,400; Will Fuller, HOU (vs. CHI), $3,700; Chris Hogan, NE (at ARI), $3,600; Tajae Sharpe, TEN (vs. MIN), $3,000
Tight End
Antonio Gates, SD (at KC), $4,200 – Unlike every other position, the Week 1 options at tight end are rather underwhelming, which would typically point me in the direction of the bargain bin. However, it's tough to make a case for any of the sub-$3,000 tight ends, and you'll excuse me if I have a tough time getting excited about Charles Clay ($3,400). I was a bit surprised upon realizing that Gates is my favorite choice, as it's not entirely clear the 36-year-old has anything left in his tank. While that may be true, Gates figures to return to a near every-down role, after often splitting snaps with Ladarius Green last year. Gates was still Philip Rivers' favorite option near the end zone, drawing 13 red-zone targets (five TDs) in just 11 appearances. Also, the KC defense seems to be almost universally overrated -- the secondary looks mediocre, and the pass-rush won't be nearly the same without superstar OLB Justin Houston (knee).
Other options:Gary Barnidge, CLE (at PHI), $4,700; Zach Ertz, PHI (vs. CLE), $4,300; Charles Clay, BUF (at BAL), $3,400
Team Defense/Special Teams
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. CLE), $3,300 – Boasting an underrated front seven and safety duo, the Philadelphia defense probably won't be good enough to compensate for the team's likely struggles on offense, but it should manage just fine in an ideal Week 1 matchup. With Josh Gordon suspended, the Browns probably don't have the necessary personnel to take advantage of Philadelphia's one glaring defensive weakness at cornerback. A Ryan Mathews-Philly D stack is a strong play against a Cleveland team that doesn't figure to do much right this season. I'm also fond of Lamar Miller-Houston D against the Bears.
Other options: Houston Texans (vs. CHI), $3,200; Cleveland Browns (at PHI), $2,300
Extended Slate
Carolina at Denver (Thursday) – No need to mess with the Carolina offense in a dreadful road matchup, especially considering the team's receivers figure to rotate snaps. And as much as I like C.J. Anderson ($5,900) for the season, this isn't the right spot against a vicious Carolina front seven. Emmanuel Sanders ($5,700) is the play, if there is one, checking in $1,300 below teammate Demaryius Thomas ($7,000). You could maybe make an argument for Greg Olsen ($5,100), but it would mostly revolve around the lack of appealing options at tight end.
Pittsburgh at Washington (Monday) – With Le'Veon Bell (suspension), Martavis Bryant (year-long suspension) and Ladarius Green (ankle) all unavailable, DeAngelo Williams ($7,000) and Antonio Brown ($9,800) will be worthy of consideration in any matchup. I actually prefer to go with Williams, who will undoubtedly carry a lower ownership percentage and doesn't have to deal with CB Josh Norman. As for Washington, the prices aren't great for an offense with so many options, but I do like the upside offered by DeSean Jackson ($6,100) against an ugly Pittsburgh secondary. Keep in mind that Jackson was absent or limited for most of last season, which partially explains why TE Jordan Reed got such consistent target volume.
Los Angeles at San Francisco (Monday) – This game will probably be ugly, and the St. Louis defense ($3,800) is overpriced in a road matchup -- albeit a very favorable one -- after losing quite a bit of talent in the offseason. I actually prefer a cheaper San Francisco D/ST ($3,100) that may struggle against Todd Gurley but should keep Case Keenum and the toothless St. Louis passing game in check. As for Gurley, I'd rather not pay $7,800 for a highly-owned running back who doesn't figure to catch many passes. Maybe if I thought the Rams would win this game, but that's not an argument I can make. The San Francisco offense also has a couple of intriguing options, with the team's lack of talent at wide receiver possibly portending large workloads for RB Carlos Hyde ($5,600 - concussion) and TE Vance McDonald ($3,100). A Hyde-SF D/ST stack is far from safe, but it won't be a popular play and offers serious upside in this matchup. If you can't tell by now, I think the Rams will be trash this year. Do yourself a favor and don't watch this game, ok?
