This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
The word count is getting a little higher than I expected when I planned on this being a three-part series, so this is actually not the last entry and a fourth one will be coming up soon. The first article (here) looked at Breece Hall through Christian Watson (8) and the second article (here) looked at Rachaad White (9) through Alec Pierce (17). This article will look at George Pickens (18) through Romeo Doubs (24).
These articles go through the recent best ball ADP of the rookies and guesses which ones are worth selecting at their current price. The ADP cited is from Underdog.
George Pickens, WR, PIT (175.0 ADP Underdog)
Pickens fell in the draft perhaps in part due to his skinny present build (6-foot-3, 195 pounds), but he mostly fell because a lot of people think he's insane. Even if he is, he's the kind of insane that makes for a great athletic competitor. Pickens is all fire all the time, and at Georgia he channeled it all into football. If he were a distracted or lackadaisical worker it wouldn't have been possible for him to produce 49 receptions for 727 yards and eight touchdowns on 77 targets to lead the team in all receiving categories as a true freshman. Pickens also demonstrated memorable willpower to return from a spring ACL tear in just eight months and play the final four weeks of the 2021 season.
The problem for Pickens in 2022 is that there might not be many targets available after Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth get their cuts. Pickens fits best outside and Johnson probably can't play the slot, so if Claypool lines up outside then that could even block Pickens' playing time. Luckily, we have reason to believe Claypool will take that slot role, leaving room for Pickens to compete (and easily win) playing time outside. Perhaps Pickens can steal targets from Johnson and Claypool in that scenario, but Mitchell Trubisky's arrival brings with him a more run-heavy version of the Steelers offense than the one we've seen the last two years. I love Pickens as a prospect but probably still need to see his ADP fall before try to acquire any best ball shares.
Draft George Pickens if: You want to aggressively fade Diontae Johnson or/and Chase Claypool
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, NYG (192.3 ADP)
Robinson was one of the most disappointing combine weigh-ins of all time, checking in at 5-foot-8 after Kentucky listed him at 5-foot-11. Big difference! I was among the people who wrote him off too quickly over the fact, but luckily the Giants selected him second round, 43rd overall, and I've been converted back to extreme optimism for Robinson as a pro prospect. If Tyreek Hill was the only 5-foot-8 receiver to succeed before him then Robinson will simply prove to be the second one, I'm now convinced.
5-foot-8 or not, Robinson was outrageously productive both at Nebraska and Kentucky, and when you watch the tape it's easy to see how it happened: Robinson is sick. Kentucky threw for 2,919 yards last year while completing 66.1 percent of their passes at 8.0 yards per attempt. Not only did Robinson easily outplay that baseline by catching 72.2 percent of his targets at 9.3 yards per target, he did it while producing an outrageous 45.7 percent of Kentucky's receiving yardage. To take on that share burden while producing sky-high efficiency is an exceptionally rare accomplishment, and anomalous to the point that I'm willing to overlook the fact that Robinson would be an anomaly to succeed at the NFL level at 5-foot-8. The way I see it, if Robinson and Kadarius Toney are fighting for the same role then that's Toney's problem.
Draft Wan'Dale Robinson if: You need a wide receiver in the 16th round or later
Brian Robinson, RB, WAS (193.1 ADP)
Washington will regret this pick. Robinson is often called a 'big back' but he is not one in practice. He's a big human, yes, and he's athletic in general but he is poorly built for a running back and is not a good athlete for his frame by running back standards. According to Mockdraftable, 6-foot-2 is 97th percentile height among running backs while 225 pounds is just 80th percentile, meaning Robinson is narrowly built for his height. This is a problem for an ostensible power runner because the collisions he's supposed to win will be against players who hold a leverage advantage over him and at much higher weights.
To possess just 4.63 speed on a problematic frame makes Robinson a positively poor athlete for running back functions. This has already shown up in practice – Robinson couldn't average 5.0 yards per carry despite playing in Easy Mode in the Alabama offense, and he never surpassed 483 yards rushing in his first four seasons. If not for COVID granting him a fifth season and if not for Jerome Ford transferring to Cincinnati before that fifth season, there's a strong likelihood that Robinson wouldn't have been drafted, let alone in the third round. There are better running backs on most practice squads every year.
Draft Brian Robinson if: You're convinced Antonio Gibson will miss 12 or more games
David Bell, WR, CLE (199.6 ADP)
Bell's combine showing was rather bad (4.65 40 at 6-foot-1, 212 pounds) and with that brings certain limitations, but his athleticism is probably sufficient to play at lower depths and his production at Purdue strongly suggests he has the skill set to produce in that region even if he is restricted to it. Unfortunately, none of these questions will matter in games where Jacoby Brissett is the starter.
Draft David Bell if: You think Deshaun Watson will not miss much time
Zamir White, RB, LV (205.5 ADP)
I've said repeatedly that backs like Tyrion Davis-Price and Brian Robinson basically cannot play in the NFL, but White can definitely do something. He has ability as a pure runner and maximizes that ability with a hot motor, so there's no doubt he can provide some quality reps for almost any team, including the Raiders. The question is whether he can withstand any volume as a high runner with an injury history, and there's also question about whether he can do much as a pass catcher (he didn't really at Georgia). At this range of the draft White is probably cheap enough that the answers to the previous questions are not important – he just needs to give you a handful of games with double-digit carries to pay off, and Josh Jacobs has a long enough injury history to make that easy enough to imagine. White just probably can't give you any big workloads or any significant number of receptions.
Draft Zamir White if: You need a running back in the last two rounds and can afford to sacrifice ceiling for floor
Hassan Haskins, RB, TEN (213.0 ADP)
Haskins was a bad pick by an organization that has made a number of questionable moves the last two years. It won't amount to much significance in the fourth round, but better runners were drafted afterward and even if Haskins is good he has no role in this offense if Derrick Henry is upright. Haskins never did athletic testing before the draft so we don't know how athletic he is, but it's more likely that he runs a 4.75 40 than a sub-4.65 one. If Henry is upright, Haskins is at risk of healthy scratch. Even if Henry is out, Haskins (A) might be less than effective and (B) wouldn't get a Henry-like workload because the Titans would be falling behind and giving more snaps to Dontrell Hilliard, who also will likely be the first Tennessee runner off the bench when Henry is healthy.
Draft Hassan Haskins if: You are too heavy on Dontrell Hilliard already
Romeo Doubs, WR, GB (214.4 ADP)
It's too flimsy of a basis to advise other people's strategy with the Green Bay offense, but I'm not hearing great things about Christian Watson early on and, while I admittedly was already skeptical of Watson as a prospect, it sounds like Watson has some real issues to work on. That's not surprising given that he was only somewhat productive in college as an over-aged player at a low level of competition. Doubs, by contrast, is one of the most productive receivers in college football history. Watson has tools (4.36 speed at 6-foot-4) but Doubs has the skill set.
Unfortunately Doubs was unable to do any pre-draft athletic testing due to injury, so we don't know what kind of athlete he is. He was a good enough athlete to torch the Mountain West and the handful of Power Five teams Nevada faced, and when watching him play Doubs certainly doesn't come across as unathletic. But he definitely does not have the tools that Watson or Sammy Watkins do, and as a late fourth-round pick he has an uphill climb no matter how optimistic the frame.
I'm probably more optimistic than most, though, because players simply do not often produce like Doubs did in college and if Watson is a dud then only the injury-prone Watkins is ahead of Doubs (Amari Rodgers and Randall Cobb are likely limited to the slot). If Watson is a bust this year and Watkins misses time, Doubs could find himself in a three-down role right there.
Draft Romeo Doubs if: You can weather extreme risk for unique upside in the 18th round
