This article is part of our Best Ball Strategy series.
Apologies for the delay on this, I'll get the third one posted before the end of the week. The first installment (rookies 1 through 8 in Underdog ADP) can be read here. This post is players 9 (Rachaad White) through 17 (Alec Pierce).
Rachaad White, RB, TB (125.2 Underdog ADP)
White was always worth drafting at ADP but now the case is even stronger, and the price likely to rise, as a result of Leonard Fournette's alleged weight gain in the offseason. In contrast to Gio Bernard last year or Dare Ogunbowale before that, White is a legitimate running back and one who can threaten both as a runner and receiver in base functions. He was extremely, convincingly productive at Arizona State the last two years, producing 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns on just 224 carries (6.4 YPC) in 15 games while adding a dominant pass-catching box score of 51 receptions for 607 yards and two touchdowns on 58 targets (87.9 percent catch rate, 10.5 YPT). The one limitation with White is that his frame is not built to withstand big volume -- at 6-foot, 214 pounds he's a bit thin for his height and as a result he risks taking big hits and losing confrontations against anchored defenders. With that said, White can play, and this offensive line might make it easy.
Draft Rachaad White if: He falls past the 9th round
Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU (128.8 ADP)
Pierce was a good college running back at Florida, though one who only played in a rotation. Pierce's 2021 production in particular was impressive, running for 574 yards and 13 touchdowns on just 100 carries (5.7 YPC) while turning 20 targets into 19 catches for 216 yards and three touchdowns, but since he never did it as a featured runner it's tough to tell how he would do with a bigger workload. He certainly has the frame (5-foot-10, 218 pounds) to take on a bigger workload, but we don't know if his motor can maintain the pace he showed at Florida if his workload were doubled. This indicates both risk and upside – he might not be able to scale up, but he hasn't given any reason to think he can't either. While Pierce's playing time is far from a given as a fourth-round pick with 4.66 speed, Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead are weak competition in the meantime.
Draft Dameon Pierce if: You need three-down upside and can weather the risk
Isaiah Spiller, RB, LAC (132.0 ADP)
Spiller was overrated through much of a the pre-draft process but he was a solid pick for the Chargers in the fourth round and he's the clear backup to Austin Ekeler. You know how Ekeler had 20 touchdowns last year? Expect Spiller to poach a few of the 12 that Ekeler scored on the ground, and otherwise know that if Ekeler misses time then with this current depth chart the Chargers have little choice but to make Spiller a three-down player in that scenario. Even if Ekeler doesn't miss time, he's already made the public plea for a lightened rushing workload. Spiller is the plan as far as that goes.
Draft Isaiah Spiller if: You want the main between-the-tackles runner on one of the league's best offenses
Jameson Williams, WR, DET (134.9 ADP)
There are a lot of reasons to love Williams' long-term value. There aren't many reasons to expect a productive 2022 season, however. Williams tore his ACL in January and figures to slowly acclimate to the Lions offense as a result, especially with DJ Chark there on a one-year contract. As a fellow downfield burner Chark is basically the bridge plan to Williams, so as long as Chark is there it's categorically difficult to see Williams doing much. That's skipping the problems posed by target hogs like Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift, not to mention the fact that Jared Goff is a weak downfield passer.
Draft Jameson Williams if: You think Jared Goff is good and DJ Chark is not
Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS (139.1 ADP)
Dotson is an impressive prospect and one who figures to enjoy a successful NFL career. Whether that success occurs with Carson Wentz at quarterback is less clear. Good as he is, Dotson is short and very skinny, and Wentz has the ability to miss the broad side of a barn. If Wentz plays well then so can Dotson, with that said.
Draft Jahan Dotson if: You believe in Carson Wentz or simply consider Dotson unstoppable
Jalen Tolbert, WR, DAL (143.5 ADP)
Tolbert is an interesting prospect as a third-round pick out of South Alabama, and he's notable among the Dallas receivers for his ability to play any receiver position and operate in any depth of the field. If there is a pass-catching task to be assigned then he will always be a candidate. The problem is that James Washington (209.7 ADP) is a veteran and former third-round pick who poses an obstacle in the meantime even if Michael Gallup (knee) misses substantial time to start the season. Tolbert's adequate workout metrics (4.49 40) and extremely productive college career give reason to think he can produce if given the reps, but there's a good chance he's Dallas' WR4 and the current ADP might not quite acknowledge that. It's hard to see how he's better than a prospect like fourth-round pick Tylan Wallace from 2021, so if Tolbert's career starts slow it would be forgivable in a broader sense but a tough dud in the 12th round.
Draft Jalen Tolbert if: You make him part of an aggressive Dallas stack, ideally in the 13th round or later
Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL (150.5 ADP)
Allgeier was a memorably productive player at BYU, where he stomped his way to 2,899 yards and 36 touchdowns on just 452 carries (6.4 YPC) while spending some time at linebacker early on. Allgeier has good balance for a bigger back and runs with lots of motor to make the most of his raw power, so he stands out in an Atlanta backfield where the only other power specialist would be Qadree Ollison, who we have no reason to think will make the team. As much as there's plenty to like about Allgeier, his 4.64 speed probably won't allow him to break as many big plays as he did at BYU. Damien Williams (215.9 ADP) was only two pounds lighter than Allgeier when he ran a 4.45-second 40, and while Williams might have lost a step in the eight years since he probably is still significantly faster than Allgeier. Not just that, but Williams is a polished passing-down back while Allgeier is mostly unproven there. If Williams gets injured (something he has done often) then Allgeier could take up a role like Mike Davis' from 2021, but his current ADP might underestimate the chance that he has to split Davis' prior production with Williams instead.
Draft Tyler Allgeier if: You want to fade Damien Williams or/and already have exposure to Gus Edwards (155.6 ADP), James Robinson (172.7 ADP) and Jamaal Williams (176.1 ADP)
Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, SF (154.4 ADP)
It's worth something that the 49ers spent a third-round pick on Davis-Price and specifically had a power function in mind for him, and if he can simply earn the backup role to starter Elijah Mitchell then Davis-Price would have a clear route to usage if Mitchell were unable to play. Everything aside from that seems bad to me. Davis-Price ran for 287 yards and three touchdowns on 36 carries (8.0 YPC) against Florida last year, but in all of his other career games he cumulatively averaged 4.25 yards per carry. Davis-Price certainly gets some credit for that big game, but (A) one big game against a busted defense is not meaningful and (B) those other 34 games count too – averaging 4.25 yards per carry over 343 carries is absolutely a red flag.
Davis-Price's poor production is a bad sign for his skill set, and he doesn't have athletic tools to offset a skill set deficit. After being listed between 223 and 232 pounds on the LSU roster page, Davis-Price weighed in at just 211 pounds at the combine. Shedding all that weight didn't help his 40 much, as his 4.58-second 40 time is only average and his jumps were bad (30-inch vertical, 117-inch broad). At 6-foot, 211 Davis-Price is both too thin and not fast – a bad combo. If he adds back the weight he lost, he will get slower and likely emerge with below average speed. Jeff Wilson is probably a slightly worse athlete than Davis-Price but not by much, and Wilson was the better player in college. It might even be too hasty to cross out Trey Sermon, whose third-round draft capital didn't help him much last year.
Draft Tyrion Davis-Price if: You've already drafted Gus Edwards, James Robinson, Jamaal Williams, Kenneth Gainwell, Khalil Herbert, Darrel Williams, Mark Ingram and Dontrell Hilliard too many times or believe in Santa
Alec Pierce, WR, IND (170.5 ADP)
Pierce might have surprised some as a second-round pick but it was a nice selection by the Colts. Pierce grades conventionally well as a prospect – his collegiate production is very clean and his size-adjusted athleticism is well above average. His traits and skill set are near prototype for an outside, downfield-oriented receiver, and the Colts desperately needed just that before they selected Pierce. The main downside to Pierce's fantasy prospects is the fact that his height (6-foot-3) and speed (4.41-second 40) make him Indianapolis' best candidate for downfield routes and decoy routes to the point that he might not get many opportunities to pad his target and catch count underneath, where Michael Pittman, Parris Campbell and Nyheim Hines all get first dibs. It's also possible that, though a huge overall upgrade over Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan isn't much of a downfield passer these days. With that said, Pierce should play at least 750 snaps this year and could go well over that mark. It's also possible that, even if his target rate lags, he offsets it by producing a high yards per catch and touchdown percentage. It won't be easy for safeties to keep Pierce in front of them, especially when the Colts run playaction with Jonathan Taylor on the field.
Draft Alec Pierce if: You need a receiver in the 15th round
