Beating the Book: Vikings, Bengals Win on the Road, Ravens Cover + Full Week 6 Picks

We're coming off of a rough week here at Beating the Book. There's no two ways about it. After going 6-9-1 ATS, we've dropped under .500 for the first time this season.

Ironically, in terms of straight-up picks, we had our best single week of the season, picking 12 of 16 games correctly. But that's only a small consolation in what was otherwise a brutal week. While it's still early, it may be time to fire a position coach, publicly criticize the quarterback or at the very least call a players-only meeting. We're in need of a spark heading into Week 6.

Taking a look at the board this week, one thing sticks out right away: bye weeks are upon us, so we only have 14 games on the slate. The Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans are all off this week.

As of Wednesday, four games feature a spread of a touchdown or more, with the 2-3 Rams sitting as the heaviest favorites (-10.5) at home against Carolina in the first game of the Steve Wilks era. The Bucs are also heavy favorites at Pittsburgh, while the oddsmakers are once again giving Green Bay the benefit of the doubt with the Jets coming to town.

On the other end of the spectrum, seven games have a spread of 3.0 points or fewer, including Thursday night's captivating showdown between the Commanders and Bears. 

Before we dive into Week 5, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 5 picks.

Last week: 6-9-1 ATS; 12-4 straight up; best bet lost

On the season: 37-39-4 ATS; 51-28-1 straight up; 1-4 best bets

Best calls of Week 5: 

• The Rams always seem to find a way to swing back and forth between looking like a .500 team and a Super Bowl contender on a week-to-week basis, but I can't put my faith in that offensive line in a matchup against this Dallas defense.
• Chargers to win 30-28 at Cleveland.

Worst calls of Week 5:

• The loss to Philadelphia did feel like a big step back for Trevor Lawrence, who was near-perfect against the Colts and Chargers. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk that one up to the rainy and windy conditions. The Texans are America's Bounceback Team right now, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
• It's difficult to imagine Aaron Rodgers coming out completely flat two weeks in a row. Even against bad teams, this version of the Packers is yet to prove it can pile up points. But I like Green Bay's defense to do the heavy lifting and lead the way to a win.

NFL Week 6 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via DraftKings, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

Washington Commanders (+1.0) at Chicago Bears

What's that? You thought Colts-Broncos was ugly last week? That's cute. Now sit down and shut up because it's time for Commanders-Bears, baby. As of Wednesday, this game has the lowest over/under of the season (38.0) – somehow even lower than the Bears' Week 1 freshwater hurricane game against the 49ers. And honestly, rightfully so.

Sometimes, these primetime games that look awful on paper end up exceeding expectations – last year's Football Team – Giants TNF matchup, for instance – but it's really, really difficult to imagine myself gaining any sense of enjoyment from watching Carson Wentz and Justin Fields. 

In fairness to the Bears, they have shown some pluckiness over the last few weeks, and it should be noted that Fields went off for 21 pass attempts in Week 5. That's a full-on air raid, by Bears standards. However, Chicago still has only 583 passing yards on the year while ranking ahead of only Carolina in total yards and total first downs.

On the other side, Washington is coming off of its fourth straight loss since beating the Jags in Week 1. The Commanders run a ton of plays and can rack up yardage through the air, but they've been consistently unable to finish out drives. Washington also has a minus-seven turnover differential (31st in the NFL), and, bizarrely, has only attempted two field goals in five games. 

Following Sunday's loss, which concluded with Wentz throwing an extremely Carson Wentz interception in the endzone, coach Ron Rivera offered a strong endorsement of his starting quarterback.

While acknowledging that rookie head coaches are only 8-18 ATS on Thursday Night Football since 2015, I'm taking the Bears to continue moving the ball on the ground en route to a win – and cover – at home.

The pick: Bears 20 – Commanders 17

Sunday Early Games

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons

After a semi-shaky start marred by losses to Chicago and Denver, the 49ers are rolling into Atlanta coming off convincing wins over the Rams and Panthers. The Niners have the league's best defense in terms of yards per play allowed, while the running game is starting to take shape behind Jeff Wilson. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, dropped to 2-3 after falling to Tampa Bay, but the Falcons should've had a chance to win the game late, had it not been for the worst call of the year thus far. Either way, the Falcons continue to demonstrate record-high levels of friskiness, regardless of the opponent or their injury situation. Their three losses have come by a combined 11 points, and last week they were without both Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.

This is another tough test for Arthur Smith's team, especially if Pitts remains out, but the Falcons have proven that they can hang with anyone. I like the 49ers to win outright, but this is their second straight trip across the country after playing in Carolina last week, and they're dealing with some key injuries on defense.

Give me the Falcons to cover and move to 6-0 ATS on the year in a touching tribute to Calvin Ridley.

The pick: 49ers 27 – Falcons 23

New England Patriots (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Patriots completely shut down the hottest offense in the league last week, forcing a pair of Jared Goff turnovers, shutting the Lions down on all six fourth down attempts, and limiting Detroit to only 101 rushing yards. The Pats' defense is quickly becoming one of the better units in the league, though they have been vulnerable against the run, so this isn't the worst spot for Cleveland.

The Browns have a legitimate claim that they should be at least 4-1. A crushing Jacoby Brissett interception late in the game has been the common thread in all three losses, and the most recent pick was the worst one yet.

For the most part, the Browns are operating exactly as they should with a limited quarterback. They lead the league in rushing by a wide margin, while Nick Chubb is quietly on pace to eclipse 2,000 yards. But when they've needed Brissett to make a play – or even avoid a disastrous decision – he simply hasn't come through.

This has the feeling of yet another close game for Cleveland, but I trust Bill Belichick, who's all too familiar with Brissett, to find ways to give the Pats advantages – even without Damien Williams. 

I'll take the Patriots to win outright on the road. 

The pick: Patriots 20 – Browns 17

New York Jets (+7.0) at Green Bay Packers

Coming into the year, I thought the Packers would play a completely different brand of football but perhaps be an even more effective team post-Davante Adams. So far, they're definitely playing a different brand, but it looks more like they've ditched their Nike sponsorship for a lucrative deal with Starbury.

The Packers are a complete mess on both sides of the ball. Two weeks ago, I made them my best bet against the Patriots, and they needed overtime to take down Bailey Zappe. This past week, I picked Green Bay to cover another big number in London against the Giants, and the Packers promptly blew a 17-3 lead. For the fourth time this season, the offense completely shut down in the second half, while Green Bay continues to look like one of the five worst-coached teams in the NFL on defense.

Normally, a home game against the Jets would be an ideal get-right spot. But this Jets team has serious talent on both sides and enters Week 6 having won three of its last four. The Packers' issues aren't going to be ironed out over the course of a week – especially post-London – so I think we get a dogfight and another uneasy crowd at Lambeau Field. With Aaron Rodgers playing like a slightly above-average quarterback, the gap in talent between the two teams isn't all that wide.

I can't quite pick against Green Bay outright, but I like the Jets to cover on the road.

The pick: Packers 27 – Jets 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

We're coming off of a tough week at the Whalen household. My alma mater fired its football coach, golf season is coming to an end in Wisconsin, my fiance moved my autographed Ron Dayne photo from the living room to the guest bedroom (might call off the wedding), and the Jaguars completely no-showed the easiest game on their schedule.

A few short weeks ago, I was mapping out the parade route through downtown Jacksonville, and now I'm legitimately questioning whether Trevor Lawrence will ever be The Guy. Right now at least, my lean is heavily in favor of "absolutely not."

At this point, we've seen enough from Lawrence that I think it's fair to say he'll never be a Patrick Mahomes/Justin Herbert/Aaron Rodgers/Geno Smith level quarterback. Obviously that's a high bar to clear, but it was completely on the table – if not expected – at the time Lawrence was drafted. I remain convinced Lawrence can still develop into a high-level starter, but the flashes of brilliance have been too few and far between. More concerning is the fact that Lawrence has been outright bad over the last two weeks, committing seven turnovers and almost single-handedly losing games to Philly and Houston.

*Deep, laborous sigh*

Anyway, despite back-to-back letdowns, the Jags are once again in a good spot against a Colts team they always seem to play well. Jacksonville already owns a 24-0 beatdown over Indy in Week 2, and while the Colts somehow managed to pull out a win in Denver last Thursday, no one on earth came away from that game feeling good about either team.

Indianapolis could get Jonathan Taylor back this week, but I still think the Jaguars are pretty easily the more-talented team. In what suddenly feels like a massive prove it game for Trevor Lawrence, I'll reluctantly put on my Byron Leftwich jersey and take the Jags to rediscover their ground game and win outright at the Joseph Addai Dome. 

The pick: Jaguars 20 – Colts 17

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins

Given the Dolphins' quarterback situation, this is a tricky line. If it's Skylar Thompson – which appears to be the most likely scenario – Minnesota should be in a good spot to exploit his inexperience, just as the Jets did last week en route to forcing two turnovers and racking up 40 points.

Miami is also dealing with key injuries to Terron Armstead, who did not play in Week 5, and Tyreek Hill, who left New York in a walking boot. All of that should bode well for what's been a mostly healthy Vikings team. While they had a bit of a second-half letdown against the Bears, they're sitting comfortably as one of only six teams with four wins thus far. It hasn't always been pretty, or overly convincing, but the Vikings deserve credit for finding ways to close out games. 

On paper, this should be a plus matchup for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' offense. Miami has been stout against the run, but they rank 31st in yards per attempt allowed through the air and sit near the bottom of the league in both sacks (T-23rd) and pressure rate (30th).

With the Dolphins banged up and facing major questions at quarterback, I'll take the Vikings to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Vikings 27 – Dolphins 22

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.0) at New Orleans Saints

Is this the week the Bengals' offense finally starts looking like one of the most talented units in the league? Maybe. But then again, maybe not. Cincinnati's offensive regression has been puzzling thus far, especially when you consider the Bengals are averaging fewer yards per play than the Panthers. As in, the Carolina Panthers. The running game has been particularly problematic, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry – ahead of only the Rams and Buccaneers. 

On the other side, the Saints' defense is right in the middle of the pack against both the run and pass. It's not nearly as stingy of an overall defense as in years past, but the Saints seem to be moving in the right direction after a disastrous loss to Carolina in Week 3. 

Winning at the Superdome, where the Saints play three of their next four games, is no easy task. The Saints are getting healthier and Taysom Hill is starting to look like a blend of Michael Vick and Mike Allstott. 

Even so, I like the Bengals to rebound and avoid falling into too deep of a hole in the AFC North. If Tee Higgins is healthy, this could be the week Cincinnati's offense finally takes a meaningful step forward.

The pick: Bengals 24 – Saints 21

Baltimore Ravens (-5.0) at New York Giants

While Lamar Jackson had easily his worst game of the season, the Ravens are coming off of a big Sunday Night win at home over Cincinnati. Jackson misfired on multiple big plays – including a walk-in touchdown for Tylan Wallace – and threw a costly pick, but Baltimore's defense stepped up and held Cincinnati under 20 points.

All along, it's felt like the Ravens' defense can't be this bad, and I'm of the belief that it will continue to improve as the season progresses. Offensively, Baltimore was able to survive without Rashod Bateman, who "might be able to come back" for Week 6, per John Harbaugh. With or without Bateman, the Ravens are the better team, but the Giants have forced me to consider the unthinkable: …Are they actually good?

Even after an upset win over the Packers in London, I remain extremely skeptical. Five weeks ago, their own GM said this would be a rebuilding year. Nonetheless, Brian Daboll and his staff deserve an immense amount of credit for doing by far the best job in the league at maximizing the talent on the roster. Nick Sirianni (+150) is the betting favorite for Coach of the Year, but Daboll at 6/1 is the far better value. And to me, he's done the better job thus far. 

Well-coached as the Giants may be, this is still a team with a banged-up quarterback rolling out Darius Slayton, David Sills and Richie James at receiver. The lack of skill position talent outside of Saquon Barkley simply isn't sustainable.

Give me the Ravens to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Ravens 28 – Giants 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.0) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Even with Chris Godwin back, the Bucs' offense is still lacking its usual punch, but Leonard Fournette has been fantastic, and the defense remains one of the league's best. That defense did very nearly allow the Falcons to come all the way back in Week 5, but thankfully the officials stepped in and prevented what could've been a disaster scenario.

Sitting at 3-2 with losses to Green Bay and Kansas City, the Bucs are still very much in command of the NFC South, which may never have a clear second-best team. With that being the case, Tampa should have a long runway to get the offense up to speed.

A matchup against this version of the Steelers should be a major confidence booster for Tom Brady. Since taking down Cincinnati in Week 1, the Steelers have lost four straight while averaging just 13.5 points per game. Kenny Pickett has infused some life into the Pittsburgh passing game, but this is another ultra-difficult matchup for the rookie after facing the Bills a week ago. 

I'm rolling with the Bucs to cover the 8.0 on the road.

The pick: Buccaneers 27 – Steelers 13

Sunday Late Games

Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The writing had been on the wall since the first quarter of Week 1, and the Panthers officially parted ways with Matt Rhule this week after a 1-4 start. Carolina actually hung in with the 49ers for a decent chunk of last week's game before a Baker Mayfield pick-six essentially ended any chance of an upset.

Mayfield emerged from the loss with an ankle injury that's likely to keep him out for at least a week or two, so the expectation is that P.J. Walker will be under center for Carolina and interim head coach Steve Wilks. I feel significantly better about the Panthers' chances to compete in this game with Walker, especially after another major letdown performance by the Rams' offense in Week 5.

Despite playing at home against a very limited Cowboys passing attack, the Rams once again appeared undermatched against a physical, aggressive defense. Carolina isn't exactly the '85 Bears, but the defense – which ranks 12th in EPA – has not been the issue thus far.

As bad as Matthew Stafford and the Rams' offense has looked of late, it's hard to picture the Rams losing this game straight up. If that happens, we'll be looking at a certified panic scenario for the defending champs.

I'll back the Rams to win outright, but I think the Panthers get the classic fired coach/anyone-but-Baker bounce and cover the double-digit spread.

The pick: Rams 26 – Panthers 17

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

At this point, the Seahawks and Lions are on a tier of their own when it comes to defenses to target. Detroit is off this week, so Seattle gets the spotlight all to itself.

I'll have to do some research into whether Geno Smith found a pair of magic cleats hanging on a power line, but this Like Mike-esque run to begin the season becomes increasingly impressive with each passing week. It's one thing to hit open checkdowns and move the chains, but some of these throws are getting out of control.

While coming into the year we wondered how big of a step back Seattle's offense would take, it's the defense that's been the far bigger liability. After allowing 45 points to the Lions in Week 4, the Seahawks allowed 39 points – and four Taysom Hill touchdowns – in Week 5. This team seems destined to find itself in a shootout every week, which is a welcomed sign for a Cardinals passing game in need of a jolt.

For the second time this season, I'm going to designate a Cardinals game as my anti-lock of the week. Take a long look in the mirror and think about all of the loved ones in your life before betting any amount of money on this game. 

Reluctantly, give me the Cardinals to win a close game that Seattle somehow finds a way to cover – likely by some sort of controversial play that's never happened in the history of the NFL.

The pick: Cardinals 37 – Seahawks 35

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Panthers-Rams and Cardinals-Seahawks both have some juice, but this is easily the crown jewel of the late window and could end up being the game of the year (non-Jaguars division).

The Bills have officially shaken off their weird loss in Miami, while the Chiefs fought back from an early deficit to survive against a tough Raiders team. These are the two highest-scoring offenses in the league through five weeks, and it's certainly felt that way.

Not only is this a matchup of two MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, but it's a rematch of one of the most memorable playoff games in NFL history. The Bills have been waiting nine months for the opportunity to avenge that loss, so there's a case to be made that this game means significantly more to them than it does to Kansas City, which comes in on a short week after playing on Monday night. The oddsmakers seem to agree with that notion, as do I.

Playing at home – the same site as last year's playoff matchup – gives the Chiefs an edge, but I expect to see a Bills team that'll be completely locked in from start to finish. I'll take Buffalo to cover and gain a leg up on Kansas City for the 1-seed in the AFC.

The pick: Bills 31 – Chiefs 27

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (+6.0) at Philadelphia Eagles

Cooper Rush was born to win NFL football games. The Cowboys went into Los Angeles as 5.5-point dogs and came out with a convincing victory behind what might be the best defense in the league. While there's a chance Dak Prescott returns to the lineup in Week 6, the 4-1 Cowboys are under no pressure to, ahem, rush him back into action.

Of course, having a healthy Prescott back would provide a major boost to a passing game that was quite limited against the Rams. The Cowboys were also able to get away with run-heavy gameplans against the Giants and Commanders, but in order to keep up with the Eagles, they'll need to attempt more than 16 passes. 

Philly survived a scare in Arizona last week and remains the league's lone undefeated team. Going up against this defense will be a major test, but Jalen Hurts' mobility provides Philly with a safety valve if and when Dallas is able to generate pressure.

With Prescott's status in limbo, we may have to wait until Week 16 to see these teams battle at full strength. I'll ride with the Eagles to win and cover at home in what should be a really entertaining matchup.

The pick: Eagles 24 – Cowboys 17

Monday Night Football

Denver Broncos (+5.0) at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what to do with the Broncos anymore. The talent is there, the defense is yelling run or pass, but the coaching and quarterback play have conspired to make Denver the NFL's biggest punchline thus far. Last Thursday's loss to the Colts was just the latest meltdown for Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson.

Just listen to the amount of dejection couched in that "let's ride".

While the Broncos are lucky to have two wins over Houston and San Francisco, this feels like close to the worst-case scenario for a team some (myself, for instance) thought would hit the ground running as a ready-made Super Bowl contender. It's still early enough for Denver to get this turned around, but after five straight games of the same offensive issues and poor decision-making, the path toward a complete 180 appears bleak.

The Chargers haven't been nearly as disappointing as the Broncos, but they're another AFC West team that's had to recalibrate expectations early on. Injuries have hit Los Angeles hard, though at least they've been able to lean on the Justin Herbert-Austin Ekeler combo. There's also some hope that Keenan Allen could finally make his return this week.

With Denver seemingly hitting rock-bottom on Thursday night, this could be a sneaky bounceback spot. With that said, until further notice the Broncos are being placed in betting jail. We simply can't trust this offense to keep up with a quarterback like Herbert.

Chargers cover, let's ride. Chargers cover, let's ride. Chargers cover. Let's ride.

The pick: Chargers 27 – Broncos 20