Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 3

Last week was bad. I went 6-10, lost my best bet (Saints) and went 2-3 in the Super Contest.  There were some tough beats like the Chargers and Bears, and the Saints got a legitimate return TD called back because a moronic ref blew the whistle (and lost their starting QB.) But I never complain about the games that go my way when things like that happen, so there are no asterisks by losses, either. Unless you can get a result overturned -- a tall order -- you have to eat it. The how and why don't matter. 

This week, I hate a lot of my picks. I don't like being on the Dolphins and Jets, and I wish I were on the Giants for Daniel Jones' first start. The Packers also feel sucker-ish, as do the Eagles and Vikings. 

I especially like the Jaguars, Bengals, Cardinals, Seahawks and Browns. 

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Titans -1.5 at Jaguars

I see these as roughly equal teams (I made the line 2.5), so that the Titans are laying wood on the road off a short week makes it an easy call. Take the Jaguars. 

Jaguars 17 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Broncos +8 at Packers

This was my exact line, so I could go either way, here. I guess I'll take the Packers who play better at home, facing Joe Flacco. But it's a coin flip. 

Packers 24 - 16

Lions +7 at Eagles

I made this line 7.5. The Chargers (and the refs) gave away the game in Detroit last week, and the Eagles should handle them at home, though they're thin at receiver. Lay the wood. 

Eagles 27 - 19

Ravens +6.5 at Chiefs

I don't think the Ravens will slow the Chiefs too much, but Baltimore's offense might be able to hang in what should be a shootout. Take the points. 

Chiefs 33 - 30

Bengals +6 at Bills

I still see these as roughly equal teams, and the Bengals are getting six. Take the Bengals. 

Bengals 24 - 23

Falcons +2 at Colts

If anything, I think the Colts are better than the Falcons, and at best these teams are equals. As such, give me the home team laying less than the full three. Back the Colts. 

Colts 24 - 20

Raiders +8 at Vikings

Maybe I'm overestimating the Vikings, but I set this line at 11.5. Derek Carr looked bad to me last week, and I'm not sure where the offense will come from against a good defense on the road. The Raiders defense is a little better than it was, but still below average. Lay the wood. 

Vikings 26 - 13

Jets +22.5 at Patriots

Maybe I'm slow on the uptake, but I set this line at only 19.5. I guess that puts me on the Jets. Good luck against that defense Luke Falk. 

Patriots 34 - 13

Dolphins +21 at Cowboys

It's rare to see an NFL team in NBA tank mode this early, but here we are. I made this line 20.5, so that puts me on the Dolphins. I wouldn't touch this game if I didn't have to, though. 

Cowboys 26 - 6

LATE GAMES

Giants +6.5 at Buccaneers

It's telling that putting in the rookie for his first start didn't move the line one iota. That the market thinks Daniel Jones with no experience is equal to Eli Manning shows how overdue the move was. In any event, I like the Giants, suddenly a franchise with hope, better than I did when I set the line at eight. But I probably would only have moved it to seven. Take the Bucs. 

Buccaneers 27 - 20

Panthers -2.5 at Cardinals

I'm surprised the line hasn't moved at all since news of Cam Newton's injury broke. Newton might still play, but he's a shell of himself, and Kyle Allen figures to be a steep downgrade. Take the points. 

Cardinals 24 - 23

Saints +4.5 at Seahawks

I set this line at 7.5 after seeing Teddy Bridgewater play against the Rams. Maybe he's better after a week of practice with the first team, but Seattle is a tough place to play. Lay the wood. 

Seahawks 24 - 16

Texans +3 at Chargers

Deshaun Watson is a wizard, but the Texans can't protect him, and the Chargers are tough on both sides of the ball. Take the better team at home. 

Chargers 27 - 23

Steelers +6.5 at 49ers

The Steelers are a desperate animal which always scares you, but this is Mason Rudolph's first start, and the Niners have been good early on. Take San Francisco. 

49ers 27 - 19

SUNDAY NIGHT

Rams -3 at Browns

The Rams beat a broken-down Cam Newton and the Teddy Bridgewater Saints. Maybe they're still the 2018 version, but I'd like to see them prove it. The Browns haven't looked especially good, either, but three points is enough at home. 

Browns 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Bears -4 at Redskins

I made this line three which puts me on the Redskins. I don't like being on the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins this week, but it is what it is. Take the points. 

Bears 20 - 17

For the podcast version of the article - usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

Last week, I went 6-10, lost my best bet (the Saints), and went 2-3 in the Super Contest. I'm now 16-16 on the year, 1-1 on best bets and 4-6 in the Super Contest. Last year I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2018, I've gone 2,563-2,373 (51.9%), not including ties.