Beating the Book: Handicapping Week 1

Beating The Book -- Year 22

I started writing this column in 1999 when I was 28, and now I'm 49. Last year I compared my run to Vin Scully's (1950 to 2016), but this year I'm going bigger and likening it to that of this tree.  

As usual, I'll make a best bet each week for Staff Picks, and will post that and my Super Contest picks in the comment section below. 

For the podcast version of the article — usually up on Thursday morning, click here.

As for this week, I especially like the Bengals. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Texans +9 at Chiefs

I love rooting for the Chiefs, but I made this line only 8.5, so I'm narrowly on the Texans. My gut was that Deshaun Watson would make it a game. Take the points. 

Chiefs 29 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Dolphins +6.5 at Patriots

I made this line 7.5, as I think Cam Newton is good, and the Patriots have a much better defense. I'm not sure how much the home field will matter on a warm day without fans, but give me the Pats. 

Patriots 20 - 13

Browns +8 at Ravens

I think the Browns will improve, and I made this line 8.5, thinking it would put me on them. But the real line is even lower, so I guess I'm taking the Ravens.  

Ravens 30 - 21

Jets +6.5 at Bills

The Jets are bad, and the Bills are solid defensively at least, so at less than a touchdown, give me Buffalo.  

Bills 24 - 16

Raiders -3 at Panthers

The Panthers are likely to be bad, but the Raiders shouldn't be laying the full three on the road against anyone yet. Teddy Bridgewater might be competent, and both teams have bad defenses. Take the home dog. 

Raiders 24 - 23

Seahawks -1.5 at Falcons

I made this line Seahawks -3 and briefly wondered whether I was overlooking the early body clock game for a west coast team and the long trip. But there won't be fans in the stands, and it's not like the Seahawks are recovering from a prior week's game. Lay the wood. 

Seahawks 27 - 24

Eagles -6 at Football Team

Football Team has long been a doormat, but their defense wasn't terrible, and all-world prospect Chase Young could be a monster, especially against an offensive line missing two Pro Bowlers. Take the points. 

Eagles 23 - 20

Bears +3 at Lions

The Bears have the better defense, but the margin between Matthew Stafford and Mitchell Trubisky is too wide. Lay the wood. 

Lions 24 - 20

Colts -8 at Jaguars

I made this line 9.5 because the Colts strike me as a safe, run-heavy team with a good offensive line that should handle weak opponents. Take Indy. 

Colts 27 - 17

Packers +2.5 at Vikings

This is exactly where I set the line given the Vikings losses on defense from last year. It's a coin flip, but I'll take the Packers. 

Packers 24 - 23

LATE GAMES

Chargers -3.5 at Bengals

I made this line Chargers plus 2.5, so I'm big on the Bengals at home with Joe Burrow. The Chargers defense is good, but they lost Derwin James, and they'll be breaking in a new quarterback too. Take the points. 

Bengals 24 - 21

Cardinals +7 at 49ers

I wanted to take the Cardinals, so I made this line only 7.5, thinking that would be enough. But it's actually only seven, so I'm on the 49ers. 

49ers 27 - 19

Buccaneers +3.5 at Saints

I'm buying into the Buccaneers as a contender, but this is getting ahead of ourselves, making them only 3.5-point dogs on the road against one of the league's powerhouses. Take the Saints who are still the better team until proven otherwise. 

Saints 28 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys -3 at Rams

I made this line 3.5, as the Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the league, and the Rams, aside from two defensive stars, are nearing rebuilding mode. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 31 - 27

MONDAY NIGHT

Steelers -6 at Giants

It's annoying because the line was originally 4.5, and my line is 6.5, so I was on the Steelers without a second thought, but at six, it's barely any different. As a Giants fan I'm loath to bet against my own team over half a point, but being the professional I am, give me the Steelers. 

Steelers 27 - 20

Titans pick 'em at Broncos

The Titans beat the Patriots and Ravens in last year's playoffs, and they're going against Drew Lock. That said, a road game in altitude against a strong defense won't be a picnic. Give me the Titans, narrowly. 

Titans 20 - 19

For the podcast version of the article click here.

Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.