Beating the Book: Bills Win Big, Eagles Stay Perfect + Full Week 8 Picks and Predictions

A carnage-filled NFL season continues to roll along as several big favorites went down in Week 7.

The Buccaneers falling to the post-Christian McCaffrey Panthers will go down as perhaps the biggest upset of the year, while the Pats losing to the Bears in embarrassing fashion on Monday night felt like a fitting cap to the week.

Despite some major misses, we salvaged a respectable, 8-6 ATS record in Week 7, which moves us to 53-51-4 on the year. Much like two-thirds of the league right now, we're keeping our head above water and gearing up to make a run in the second half.

Against all odds, we finally got back on the winning side of a best bet, thanks in large part to Josh Jacobs putting the Raiders on his back for a third straight week. For the most part, our best bets have been a disaster, but if I'm being honest this feels like it could be the start of something big. Don't let me get hot – that's all I'm saying.

Looking forward to Week 8, we're blessed with a 15-game slate, as only the Chargers and Chiefs are on bye. Both the Bills (-11.0 vs. GB) and Eagles (-10.5 vs. PIT) – fresh off of their Week 7 byes – sit as double-digit home favorites, while the Cowboys (-9.0 vs. CHI) are the only other team favored by more than 4.5 points, as of Wednesday afternoon.

Elsewhere on the slate, we have seven road favorites, including the banged-up Ravens, who will head to Tampa Bay for a Thursday Night Football meeting against Tom Brady and the struggling Bucs offense.

Before we dig in on Week 8, let's take our customary look back at the best and worst calls from my Week 7 picks.

Last week: 8-6 ATS; 9-5 straight up; best bet won (Raiders -7.0 vs. Texans)

On the season: 53-51-4 ATS; 67-40-1 straight up; 2-5 best bets

Best calls of Week 7: 

• I like Washington to put up a fight and cover in another concerning, uninspiring performance by the Green Bay offense.
• I have some skepticism as to how Tua will look in his return, so I don't think Miami runs away with this game. Even at home, giving 7.0 points to Mike Tomlin is too much. I'll take the Dolphins to win – they can't possibly lose in their throwbacks on the 50th anniversary of the undefeated 1972 team – but Pittsburgh covers.

Worst calls of Week 7:

• With a completely inept passing game on the other side – PJ Walker's longest completion against the Rams traveled literally one-yard past the line of scrimmage – Tampa should have plenty of leeway should Brady and Co. get off to another slow start.
• I feel like I'm being baited into it, but I'm taking the Jags to win AND cover at home in their first win over an NFC team since 2018.

NFL Week 8 Picks: Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game

As will be the case every week throughout the regular season, we'll start with Thursday Night Football and go game-by-game, picking each contest against the spread. My best bet will always be highlighted in gold.

All odds this week via DraftKings, as of Wednesday at Noon ET.

Thursday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a tough game to evaluate right now given that we're keeping an eye on some significant injuries. Mike Evans emerged from Week 7 with an ankle injury, while on the Baltimore side both Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews have been limited to begin the week, while a few key defensive players are also questionable.

It's worth noting that after back-to-back letdowns, the oddsmakers are no longer giving the Bucs the benefit of the doubt. They're at home against a banged-up Ravens team that hasn't looked good of late, and yet they're still 1.5-point dogs. There's no denying that the Bucs' offense has been an unmitigated disaster – they're the worst rushing team in the league – but the talent is there and they have literally the most accomplished athlete in the history of football at quarterback. And with the benefit of playing in the NFC South – Tampa is -225 to win the division – the Bucs will have a much longer runway than teams like the 49ers and Packers to get their season turned around.

If I had the advantage of waiting until roughly 8:14:59 PM ET on Thursday, I might flip-flop this pick, but for now I'm rolling with the Bucs to pull off the home upset.

The pick: Buccaneers 20 – Ravens 17

💂 Sunday London Game 💂

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

What have I done to deserve this fate? Last week, I wrote that Giants-Jags was the worst-case matchup for me, but I neglected to look ahead to the Week 8 schedule. Denver and Jacksonville are two teams careening toward a cliff in a 1999 Buick Regal with no brakes. The loser of this game can safely be ruled out of playoff contention in the AFC.

Denver is expecting to get Russell Wilson back from injury, but at this point it's unclear if Russ, hobbled or not, is even a significant upgrade over Brett Rypien. The good news for Denver is Russ spent the entire flight to London being a totally cool, normal and also chill guy.

To me, though, this game is about the defenses. Jacksonville's looked fast and aggressive early on but has regressed with each passing week. Meanwhile, the Broncos' defense ranks first in EPA and third in DVOA. If Denver can find a way to put a couple of touchdowns on the board -- a big ask, I'm aware -- I like their chances to frazzle Trevor Lawrence and force the Jags to beat themselves for the fifth straight week.

I don't feel good about it, but I can't keep doing this with the Jags. Not even at their home away from home. Denver wins an ugly, I really need to take a shower before the noon games start battle in London.

The pick: Broncos 21 – Jaguars 17

Sunday Early Games

Carolina Panthers (+4.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The NFC South has quickly devolved into a situation where nine wins might be enough to win the division. With Tampa Bay free-falling, the Falcons are very much in the race, and even Carolina is only a game back of the Bucs. I'm not expecting Carolina to continue to look like the team that dominated in Week 7, but this is a very good defense and a much better less-sad offense with PJ Walker at quarterback.

With Cordarrelle Patterson out and A.J. Terrell trending toward another absence, the gap in talent between these teams isn't all that large. I'll still side with Atlanta at home, but I like Carolina to cover a number that's probably a point too high.

The pick: Falcons 24 – Panthers 21

Chicago Bears (+9.0) at Dallas Cowboys

The Bears earned some major respect with their beatdown of the Pats on Monday night – a win in which they easily could've rolled up 40 points on Bill Belichick's defense, which apparently had never seen Justin Fields play football. With that said, this feels like a major regression spot for the the Bears against a Cowboys defense that's carried a sluggish offense regardless of who's at quarterback.

Last week's win over Detroit was closer than the final score would imply, so I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago is able to hang around if Dak Prescott gets off to another slow start. The Cowboys will also likely be without Ezekiel Elliott, though Tony Pollard might prove to be an overall upgrade. Eventually, though, the Dallas defense will get to Fields and ensure the Bears don't run wild for a second straight week.

With Chicago clearly focused on 2023 and beyond, give me Dallas to win and cover at home.

The pick: Cowboys 26 – Bears 14

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Detroit is officially in freefall after coming out flat out of their bye week. Injuries to D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown have sapped the electricity out of the Lions' offense, which has put up six total points in the last two games after racking up 140 points through the first four weeks of the season.

St. Brown is expected to return this week, but I'm not sure that's enough for me to buy back in on the Lions. Jared Goff has six turnovers in his last two games and the Miami defense just picked off Kenny Pickett three times in Week 7. On top of that, the Lions might be the worst defense in the league, so I view this as a get-right game for the Dolphins' offense. We know the big-play potential is there, but Miami has scored just 15, 16, 16 and 16 points over its last four games. 

In a big week for Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill at Charles Rogers Field, I like a healthy Dolphins team to finally kick-start its passing game and cover the 3.5 points on the road.

The pick: Dolphins 33 – Lions 24

Arizona Cardinals (+4.0) at Minnesota Vikings

The Cardinals' defense stepped up in last week's win over the Saints, picking off Andy Dalton three times – twice for touchdowns and once in the endzone. Even so, New Orleans was able to rack up 34 points and make it a one-score game. This Cardinals defense still has some issues, and I'm not sure they'll be solved going up against Justin Jefferson and a Vikings team coming off of a bye.

Minnesota might not be the most convincing 5-1 team, but they've consistently won close games and have top-end talent at the skill positions. With Kyler Murray and De'Andre Hopkins on the other side, I see this as a back-and-forth game with plenty of big plays.

On balance, I have slightly more faith in the Vikings' defense. I'll take Minnesota to win outright, but I like Arizona to keep it close and cover.

The pick: Vikings 28 – Cardinals 26

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.0) at New Orleans Saints

Betting the Raiders each week is a roller coaster experience – and not a fun roller coaster. More like one of those older, wooden ones that makes you question how safe it truly is. Last week, the Raiders rode a big second half to a convincing win over Houston, but Vegas didn't grab hold of the lead for good until early in the fourth quarter.

Going on the road to the Devery Henderson Dome is never easy, and while New Orleans comes in having dropped five of its last six games, the Saints' passing attack has been much more lively under Andy Dalton. Will he toss back-to-back pick-sixes every now and then? Sure, yeah, he might. But I think Dalton and the Saints can move the ball on a bad Raiders secondary.

Like several games this week, injuries could ultimately swing the outcome. We have no idea if Darren Waller will play for Vegas, while Adam Trautman, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Paulson Adebo and Marshon Lattimore are all questionable for New Orleans.

If the Saints get a few of those key players back, I'd consider flip-flopping. But for now I'll take a deep breath and pray that the Raiders continue to feed Josh Jacobs en route to a narrow win on the road.

The pick: Raiders 30 – Saints 27

New England Patriots (-1.5) at New York Jets

Coming into Monday night's matchup against the Bears, the Patriots were running hot and looked to be cruising toward a 4-3 start. Instead, they turned in one of the worst performances of the Bill Belichick era and emerged from the week with a messy situation at quarterback.

Neither Mac Jones nor Bailey Zappe played well against Chicago, though Zappe did lead two immediate touchdown drives after coming on in relief. Zappe seems to have the support of the coaching staff, but obviously Jones has the draft pedigree and a (mostly) successful rookie season on his resume. It certainly felt like Zappe had a chance to grab hold of the job Monday night, but he was so bad in the second half that Belichick could justify rolling with either quarterback. No matter what, this is not a narrative that's going to fade away anytime soon.

Update: The Patriots named Jones the starter for Week 8.

Meanwhile, the Jets kept their momentum rolling in Denver last week, but it came with a price, as Breece Hall suffered a torn ACL that will sideline him for the rest of the season. New York swiftly traded for James Robinson on Monday to bolster its backfield, but he won't be able to replicate Hall's level of playmaking.

Frankly, I can't decide if the Pats getting blown out by Chicago is a good or a bad thing for the Jets. I'm leaning toward bad, as it's difficult to imagine Belichick failing to contain bad quarterbacks two weeks in a row. 

Credit the Jets for finding ways to scheme around Zach Wilson's weaknesses, but I'm not sure they'll be able to get away with it against the Pats. In the most anticipated matchup between these teams in at least seven years, I'll roll with New England to bounce back on the road.

The pick: Patriots 17– Jets 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

It feels like each week we're waiting for the Eagles to get tripped up, and each week they calmly play well on both sides of the ball. Coming out of a bye, Philly should be well-rested and well-prepared to shut down a turnover-prone Steelers offense.

The Pittsburgh passing game has shown some signs of life since Kenny Pickett took over, but this is a bad matchup for any rookie quarterback. Philly is far and away the best pass defense in the league thus far, holding opponents to a 56.8 percent completion rate and forcing nine interceptions in six games.

The Mike Tomlin Effect should enable Pittsburgh to hang around, but ultimately I like Philly to cover and move to 7-0 with relative ease. By the way, the Eagles' next four games come against Houston, Washington, Indianapolis and Green Bay. People are saying a 10-0 start is very much on the table.

The pick: Eagles 30 – Steelers 17

Sunday Late Games

Tennessee Titans (-2.0) at Houston Texans

This number has already moved a half-point in favor of Tennessee, and that trend could continue if we get positive news on Ryan Tannehill's ankle. Either way, the Titans are determined to make every matchup as ugly as possible, so even if Tannehill is not limited, I fully expect this to be a one-score game. 

I really don't have much to say about the Titans. They're up to their old tricks, maximizing an average-at-best roster and once again sitting in first place in the division. Behind a big effort from Derrick Henry, I'm taking Tennessee to win and cover on the road.

The pick: Titans 20 – Texans 17

Washington Commanders (+3.0) at Indianapolis Colts

Big, big weekend for Sam Ehlinger hive. Not only are the Colts handing the reins over to Ehlinger this week, but it looks as though they plan to start the former Texas standout for the rest of the season. Ehlinger leapfrogged Nick Foles – ex-Jaguar, many forget – on the depth chart, and it's clear Indy is looking for a complete shake-up at the position. 

That's exactly what they'll get in Ehlinger – a physical, running quarterback who doesn't shy away from contact. He's essentially the exact opposite of Matt Ryan, which appears to be what the Colts are looking for. While this does have the feel of a desperation, it can't be any worse move by the Colts, Ehlinger had an impressive preseason and seems to have his fair share of supporters in the building. Overall, I'm optimistic that he can provide some semblance of a spark for what's been a dormant Indy rushing attack.

Obviously, there's a chance Ehlinger is a complete disaster and the Colts end up in a worse spot than they were with Ryan. But I respect the boldness of the decision and am willing to buy the notion that Ehlinger's legs will add another dimension to this offense.

Colts win and cover at home.

The pick: Colts 23 – Commanders 19

San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams

We already saw this matchup back in Week 4 when the 49ers' defense made a mockery of Matthew Stafford and the Rams' offensive line. Since then, the Niners have taken care of business against Carolina before suffering back-to-back losses against Atlanta and Kansas City.

Injuries have played a major part in the Niners' recent downturn, and the status of both Arik Armstead and Deebo Samuel should be closely monitored over the next few days. If Samuel, in particular, is good to go, I like the 49ers to notch their eighth consecutive regular-season win over LA.

Keep in mind, though, that the Rams are coming off of a bye, so they should be much better prepared to handle what San Francisco throws at them defensively. They'll also get Van Jefferson back from IR – a much-needed boost for one of the league's most sluggish and predictable offenses thus far.

I think we see a better version of the Rams' offense coming out of the bye, but I can't pick against San Francisco in a matchup they've consistently dominated.

The pick: 49ers 24 – Rams 21

New York Giants (+3.0) at Seattle Seahawks

After a few days of stewing on last week's win over the Jags, I've come to the conclusion that, somehow, some way, the Giants are a good team. I don't like it. I don't understand it. I'm not sure I even want to understand it.

New York's six wins have come by a combined 27 points and not a single one has been comfortable. Last week, the Jaguars fell roughly one foot short of winning the game as time expired. But that's been the hallmark of the Giants' season so far.

With four straight wins against the Bears, Packers, Ravens and Jaguars, the Giants have taken down a variety of teams with vastly different styles and quarterbacks. Whatever Brian Daboll and his staff are doing behind the scenes is working to perfection. In many ways, the same can be said about Pete Carroll in Seattle. The Seahawks came into the year with similar expectations as New York and have already proven to be a significantly more dangerous team on a week-to-week basis.

I'll be watching closely to see how much Seattle misses DK Metcalf, but Marquise Goodwin stepping up last week should lessen the blow. In a matchup between two teams that can run the ball but struggle to stop the run, I'll side with the home team to win and cover.

The pick: Seahawks 29 – Giants 24

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (+11.0) at Buffalo Bills

No team is in more desperate need of a get-right game than the Green Bay Packers. Perhaps they missed their window after facing the Giants, Jets and Commanders in consecutive weeks. Their reward for failing to notch a single win that span? A date with the Bills – in Buffalo, no less – on national television.

This has all the makings of a worst-case-scenario game for Green Bay. The Bills are, quite obviously, a complete wagon, while the Packers have devolved into more of a wooden-wheeled conestoga struggling to weave its way through the Rocky Mountains. After getting off to a 3-1 start, Green Bay's season isn't over, but another loss would virtually end their chances of catching Minnesota in the division.

For a number of reasons, it's almost impossible to imagine Green Bay winning this game on the road. The Packers have the look of a broken team from top to bottom with an offense that's completely incapable of pushing the ball downfield. Controversial opinion: Aaron Rodgers throwing a third of his passes behind the line of scrimmage is not a recipe for keeping up with the Bills' aerial attack.

The only real argument in favor of Green Bay is that nothing has gone to plan this NFL season. Maybe it's actually an advantage to be an 11.0-point underdog. After all, the Bucs just lost back-to-back games as double-digit favorites. The Bears have wins over the 49ers and Patriots. The Chiefs lost to the Colts. And those are only a handful of the major upsets we've witnessed.

It's a compelling argument, I know. But even with all of that said, I simply can't envision Buffalo letting that happen – especially coming out of a bye week.

In a game that could serve as the official passing of the torch from Rodgers to Josh Allen, I'm backing the Bills to win big and cover.

The pick: Bills 33 – Packers 14

Monday Night Football

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns

The Bengals offered us some glimpses of their explosive offense through the first six weeks of the season, but last week's rout of the Falcons felt like the official coming-out party. When Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are all healthy, Cincinnati may be the only team capable of keeping up with Buffalo and Kansas City in the AFC.

Defensively, the Bengals probably aren't getting enough credit for ranking sixth in DVOA through their first seven games. The run defense is closer to the middle of the pack, but the secondary has been a borderline-elite unit, holding opponents to just 6.2 yards per attempt – third in the NFL behind Philadelphia and Denver.

Against Cleveland, stopping the run is always the key, so the Bengals will have their work cut out for them slowing down Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. I like their chances to contain that duo, while Joe Burrow could have another field day against a floundering Cleveland secondary that's badly missed Denzel Ward the last two weeks.

The pick: Bengals 31 – Browns 24