Beating the Book: NFL Conference Championship Game Picks Against the Spread & Score Predictions

Welcome to the NFL Conference Championship Weekend edition of Beating the Book, where we give you NFL ATS picks for every game, every week.

We clawed our way to a 2-2 ATS mark on Divisional Weekend after missing on both of the Saturday games, where we liked the Bills to win outright and the 49ers, for some reason, to cover 7.5.

With all due respect to the Pro Bowl, we now turn the page to the penultimate weekend of the NFL season. 

You can find my NFL Conference Championship game picks and score predictions below. As always, our best bet of the week will be highlighted in gold.

Best call of Divisional Round Weekend

Bears +3.5 vs. Rams: Due to a combination of the conditions and the Rams' shaky defense, we liked Chicago to, as it has all season, find a way to keep this game within a field goal.

Worst call of Divisional Round Weekend

49ers +7.5 at Seahawks: We talked ourselves into San Francisco covering by the hook, but it was clear from, quite literally, the opening kickoff that the Seahawks were going to cruise.

Last week: 2-2 ATS; 3-1 SU; best bet won (NE -3.0)

On the season: 142-134-6 ATS; 184-96-1 SU; 11-9 best bets

2024 season: 146-134-4 ATS; 195-89 SU; 7-12-2 best bets

Game picks for Patriots-Broncos and Rams-Seahawks:

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Spread: Patriots -5.5

Total: 41.5

In a conference that's felt wide open since midseason, we ultimately end up with the top two seeds meeting in the AFC Championship Game. The big storyline, of course, is the absence of Bo Nix, who fractured a bone in his ankle late in Saturday's overtime win over the Bills.

Prior to the Nix injury, the Broncos were listed as 1.5-point home favorites in a hypothetical matchup with the Pats. But with the news that it will be Jarrett Stidham under center, the line shifted a full 7.0 points in favor of the Pats. At first glance, that does appear to be a heavier-than-expected shift. Nix is a quality starter, but he's not in elite territory, and while Stidham doesn't have a ton of NFL experience, he's been on the Broncos' roster for three full seasons and should be about as ready as any backup QB can be in this scenario.

Either way, it's a massive break for the Pats, who've rolled two a pair of semi-dominant wins thus far in the Playoffs, despite Drake Maye committing five turnovers (yes, one was an end-of-half hail mary) and the offense scoring only 37 total points. For most of the regular season, Maye was able to feast on a schedule packed with bad defenses. But the Pats' defense has been the story thus far in the postseason, forcing Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud into arguably the worst games of their respective careers.

The Pats held Los Angeles to just three points and 207 yards of offense before picking off Stroud four times in the first half alone last week. With Stidham at the controls for Denver, New England should again have advantages defensively – especially against a Broncos team that's struggled to consistently move the ball on the ground. In that 33-30 win over Buffalo – one of the NFL's worst run defenses – Denver's backs carried just 10 times for 41 total yards, while Nix ran 12 times for 29 yards.

In a do-or-die spot, the Broncos can't really afford to put training wheels on Stidham, but it will be on the defense to ensure this doesn't turn into a shootout type of game in which Stidham is asked to keep up with Maye. Nix threw the ball 46 times on Saturday – that can't be the same recipe this time around.

Certainly, the Broncos have the defensive personnel to give New England trouble. Denver finished the regular season eight in EPA per play, sixth in EPA per pass, first in sack rate and second in completion percentage allowed (57.8%). If that defense can force Josh Allen into five turnovers, it should be able to force Maye, who's fumbled six times in the last two games, into uncomfortable pockets.

Ultimately, it's difficult for me to envision Denver winning this game outright with a backup quarterback. But the Broncos have home field advantage, a dominant defense and a coach who's 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS with a backup quarterback.

The pick: Patriots 21 – Broncos 17

NFC Championship Game

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -2.5

Total: 47.5

While we don't get a battle between the top two seeds in the NFC, I think it's fair to say most would consider the Rams and Seahawks to be the two best teams in the conference. Chicago was frisky, Green Bay and San Francisco were decimated by injuries, the Panthers were the Panthers and the Eagles… well, we don't need to get into that.

The point is: both teams feel like more-than-worth representatives in the title game, and I can't wait to see how Round 3 plays out. Both regular-season matchups were decided by thin margins. The Rams won the first meeting 21-19, as Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal try as time expired. However, Seattle out-gained LA 414 to 249, held the Rams to 2-of-11 on third downs and converted only one of four red zone trips into a touchdown. By the way, Sam Darnold also threw four interceptions and the Seahawks were still in position for a walk-off win.

The second meeting – one of the most memorable games of the NFL season – followed a much different script. The Rams once again jumped out to an early lead, and Darnold did throw two more picks, but both teams were able to move the ball consistently. LA finished with a season-high 581 yards of total offense (6.6 YPP), while Seattle put up 415 yards (6.6 YPP) of its own.

The Rams led that game 30-14 early in the fourth quarter before ripping off two touchdowns –including a Rashid Shaheed punt return – and a pair of two-point conversions in less than two minutes of game time to tie it at 30. Both teams traded touchdowns in overtime before Seattle walked it off on yet another two-point conversion.

As we look ahead to Sunday's rubber match, the Seahawks certainly feel like the hotter team. That win over the Rams was part of a seven-game winning streak to conclude the regular season, capped off with dominant victories over Carolina and San Francisco. Seattle did have the advantage of facing an extremely banged up Niners team in the Divisional Round, but the Seahawks should still get credit for leaving no doubts in a 41-6 drubbing that felt completely over by the end of the first quarter.

Meanwhile, it does feel as though the Rams may have peaked earlier in the season, as both the defense and special teams have had some notable letdown games. The Rams needed a late touchdown to beat Carolina in the Wild Card Round and were again on the ropes in Chicago on Sunday night before Cam Curl's miraculous interception in overtime.

Even so, I remain committed to my priors on the Rams. To me, they're still the most well-rounded team in the NFL, and their best game probably beats another team's best game. The question is whether we trust the Rams to play close to their best on the road against perhaps the best defense in the NFL.

After a couple of shaky performances, I like the Rams to re-focus and do everything they can to rattle Darnold, who played through an oblique injury and, frankly, didn't need to do much last week against San Francisco. Darnold's career resurrection over the last two years has been an incredible story, but we can't ignore his (admittedly brief) history in big games. He's thrown six picks in two matchups against the Rams this season and struggled against them in the playoffs a year ago, throwing an interception and losing a fumble in a 27-9 Rams victory.

Seattle's defense should be able to limit Matthew Stafford and Co. enough that this game comes down to the final possession, but we'll side with the Rams to find a way to win yet another nail-biter.

The pick: Rams 23 – Seahawks 20