This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Josh Allen is the clear choice as the top fantasy quarterback this season. Once he's off the board, fantasy managers have a choice between Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. We'll look at their merits in this ADP battle.
Justin Herbert
Herbert accounted for 41 touchdowns last year after reaching 36 in his rookie season. He's posted consecutive seasons with eight 300-yard passing games. He averaged 289 passing yards per game as a rookie and followed that with 294 per game yards last year. After playing behind a weak offensive line as a rookie, the Chargers made significant improvements last year and used a first-round draft choice to add guard Zion Johnson this year. Not only is Herbert one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he has an excellent trio of weapons and a coaching staff that's allowed him to throw more than 630 times per season. And he should be very well protected. Still not enough? He's also averaged 266 rushing yards per season.
Patrick Mahomes
It seems as if fantasy managers are still paying for Mahomes' 2018 season. That was the year he cracked 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. He hasn't been the same producer since. He's yet to surpass 40 total touchdowns in any of the last three seasons. He also needed 17 games to top 4,800 yards last year. Not enough? He failed to top 280 yards in 12 of his last 16 games. And now he'll have to deal
Josh Allen is the clear choice as the top fantasy quarterback this season. Once he's off the board, fantasy managers have a choice between Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. We'll look at their merits in this ADP battle.
Justin Herbert
Herbert accounted for 41 touchdowns last year after reaching 36 in his rookie season. He's posted consecutive seasons with eight 300-yard passing games. He averaged 289 passing yards per game as a rookie and followed that with 294 per game yards last year. After playing behind a weak offensive line as a rookie, the Chargers made significant improvements last year and used a first-round draft choice to add guard Zion Johnson this year. Not only is Herbert one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he has an excellent trio of weapons and a coaching staff that's allowed him to throw more than 630 times per season. And he should be very well protected. Still not enough? He's also averaged 266 rushing yards per season.
Patrick Mahomes
It seems as if fantasy managers are still paying for Mahomes' 2018 season. That was the year he cracked 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. He hasn't been the same producer since. He's yet to surpass 40 total touchdowns in any of the last three seasons. He also needed 17 games to top 4,800 yards last year. Not enough? He failed to top 280 yards in 12 of his last 16 games. And now he'll have to deal with life without Tyreek Hill. In addition, Travis Kelce saw his receiving yardage fall significantly last year, and he turns 33 early this season. Without the threat of Hill, Kelce's going to see all the attention he can handle. That'll certainly make things tougher for Mahomes. Sure, the Chiefs brought in a number of receivers, but none will instill fear Into the hearts of defenses. The production of the last two seasons is likely his ceiling, but don't be surprised if he has the worst season of his career given his current situation.
Lamar Jackson
Yes, last year was largely a disappointment for this fantasy superstar. But his overall performance was mostly sabotaged by illness and injury, causing him to miss five games and underperform in a trio of others. The injuries seem to be a bit of an anomaly, as Jackson had not missed more than one game in any of his prior three seasons. He rushed for at least 50 yards in seven of his first eight games with four of those games surpassing 85 yards. He's still the game-breaking runner he was earlier in his career. Sure, his passing performances were not fantasy friendly, as he threw exactly one touchdown pass in nine of 12 games. However, the Ravens' offensive line was decimated by injuries and the offense rarely got on track. It's not optimal that Marquise Brown was traded, but we've already seen Jackson have an MVP season (36 TD passes) with little weaponry. Ultimately, his rushing ability gives him an excellent floor, and if he can get anywhere close to the passing production he had in 2019, he could lead QBs in scoring.
The Final Word
For my money, Herbert is the player I prefer in this ADP battle. Not only has he shown an incredible floor in his first two seasons, but he could have a season for the ages. Otherwise, I believe that Jackson is an excellent upside play. However, his passing production last year indicates that he carries more risk than it may be worth spending a high draft pick on. Finally, nostalgia only goes so far. Mahomes might be an amazing QB to watch, but he had legitimate struggles last year. And his potentially weakened set of playmakers may significantly cap his upside.
