This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Fantasy managers picking in the latter part of the first round in 12-team leagues might be looking for a running back. When that's the case, it often comes down to Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift and Joe Mixon. We'll look at the case for each in this week's ADP battle.
Derrick Henry
The case for Henry is simple. Combine elite talent with unmatched volume, and he can finish as a top-3 RB. Even when he missed nine games last year, his 237 touches put him on pace for more than 475. In 2020 and 2021, he had 321 and 387 touches, respectively, while averaging 1,943 yards and 17.5 TDs. And although he hasn't been used heavily as a receiver, he had 18 catches last year, which had him on pace to nearly double his career high. What's not to like? Although he'll be 28 this year, his immense workload the last three years could be taking a toll on him. After averaging more than five yards per carry the prior two seasons, he fell to 4.3 last season. And in his last two games before the injury, he was held to fewer than three yards per carry. In terms of the broken foot that sidelined him, maybe it was just a random injury, but it also can be argued that when a player handles as much work as Henry, the probability for injury rises.
D'Andre Swift
In his two years in the league, Swift has been an excellent receiver. Although productive in both of his years with the Lions, last year, he caught 62 passes for 452 in 13 games, but his snaps were limited in Weeks 17 and 18 after he returned from a four-week absence. It wouldn't be surprising if he led all RBs in receiving production. In terms of his rushing, he went from 8.7 carries per game as a rookie to 11.6 last year. Overall, he had a 17-game pace of 1,390 total yards. He'll also benefit from a strong offensive line. And in the offseason, the Lions added DJ Chark and Jameson Williams (knee), and the upgrade in receiving talent could keep defenses from loading up to stop the run. In terms of downside, the main issue is durability. As a rookie, he missed three games before missing almost a quarter of the season last year. He also missed time in college with shoulder and groin injuries. Aside from the potential for missed games, it's possible the coaching staff continues to limit his work. Last year, Swift averaged 17 touches while Jamaal Williams averaged almost 14. It's possible that Swift isn't heavily used.
Joe Mixon
Mixon is coming off a career year. He posted more than 1,500 total yards and 16 TDs. In a nine-week stretch Weeks 4 to 12, Mixon scored 12 TDs, including four consecutive games with two scores. He's still in his prime, as he'll be 26 this season. He's been largely durable, as he's played in at least 14 games in four of the last five years. If there was ever a candidate to buy high on, Mixon is an excellent choice. Despite his merits, there are potential red flags. Once the Bengals turned to a pass-heavy team late in the season, he failed to surpass 65 rushing yards while averaging 3.3 yards per carry in his last five games. And after having three games with at least 28 carries earlier in the season, he failed to have more than 18 in any of the last five games. However, looking at his situation this year, the Bengals tried to upgrade their offensive line by adding three new starters. That could give Mixon more room to run. And after the Bengals' passing game was lethal late in the season and through the playoffs, defenses might be forced to use less players to defend the run, which would benefit the RB.
The Bottom Line
Mixon should maintain a strong scoring floor, as he's posted at least 1,400 total yards in three of the last four seasons. He should also benefit from defenses having to focus on Joe Burrow and the passing attack. Henry's dip in production before last year's injury has me concerned that he could be entering decline after years of running to contact. However, his upside is through the roof. Especially in PPR leagues, Swift has superstar potential, though the durability issues and shared work load are concerning. Mixon might provide the best combo of floor and ceiling, so I'd take him ahead of the other two. But if I wanted massive upside, I'd roll the dice on Henry.
