This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
When looking for a WR in the 10-15 range in most drafts, fantasy managers could find themselves choosing between Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb. We'll look at the pros and cons of each of these superstar receivers.
Davante Adams
Adams definitely has a case to be considered as the best WR in the NFL. Not only does he excel in every area of the field, but his production has matched his talent. He's posted at least 1,374 yards and 11 touchdowns in each of his last three full seasons. He's also scored double-digit touchdowns in his last five full seasons. At age 29, it's unlikely he's headed for any type of decline this season. But as is the case with most players, situation impacts fantasy value. While with the Packers, his target share was nearly 30 percent. He also played with arguably the best QB in the game, who frequently threw the ball to Adams before he got into his breaks. He now goes to the Raiders. Although Derek Carr is an excellent quarterback, it's still a significant downgrade from Aaron Rodgers. Also, the Packers lacked a strong secondary receiving option, which ensured that Adams would dominate targets. In Las Vegas, the team has a pair of outstanding secondary options in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Adams' target share fall closer to the 24 percent range. Instead of seeing more than 10 targets per game, it's probable
When looking for a WR in the 10-15 range in most drafts, fantasy managers could find themselves choosing between Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb. We'll look at the pros and cons of each of these superstar receivers.
Davante Adams
Adams definitely has a case to be considered as the best WR in the NFL. Not only does he excel in every area of the field, but his production has matched his talent. He's posted at least 1,374 yards and 11 touchdowns in each of his last three full seasons. He's also scored double-digit touchdowns in his last five full seasons. At age 29, it's unlikely he's headed for any type of decline this season. But as is the case with most players, situation impacts fantasy value. While with the Packers, his target share was nearly 30 percent. He also played with arguably the best QB in the game, who frequently threw the ball to Adams before he got into his breaks. He now goes to the Raiders. Although Derek Carr is an excellent quarterback, it's still a significant downgrade from Aaron Rodgers. Also, the Packers lacked a strong secondary receiving option, which ensured that Adams would dominate targets. In Las Vegas, the team has a pair of outstanding secondary options in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Adams' target share fall closer to the 24 percent range. Instead of seeing more than 10 targets per game, it's probable that number drops with his new team. And instead of being the main target in the red zone, he easily could see those opportunities spread out among his teammates. Yes, he'll still be the lead receiver, but he might no longer have the opportunity to make him the dominant weekly option he's been for a number of years.
Stefon Diggs
Along with top-end talent, Diggs should have extreme target volume. The last two seasons, he had 164 and 166 targets, giving him an amazing scoring floor. And with Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders no longer with the team, his targets could even go a bit higher. It's also likely that he continues to be a solid TD scorer, as he posted eight to 10 scores in four of the last five seasons. However, there is reason for concern. Diggs had his best season when Josh Allen played at an MVP level in 2020. Allen's efficiency and completion percentage dropped last year, and it impacted Diggs. He saw his average depth of target fall from 9.2 to 7.5. Despite a similar number of targets, his yardage fell by more than 300 yards. His receptions also fell from 127 to 103. And he was only in the 25th percentile in yardage after the catch. After posting at least 85 yards in four of his first nine games, he only surpassed 80 yards twice in his last 10 games. And now with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll no longer with the team, it's possible the offense regresses a bit. Finally, after the team began to establish a rushing attack late last season, it's possible that when playing with leads, they don't throw quite as often late in games. Overall, Diggs still has an exceptional floor, but his ceiling might not be what it once was.
CeeDee Lamb
Playing in his second season, Lamb showed signs that he was on his way to becoming a superstar. He posted at least 80 yards in seven of his first 11 games while scoring six times in his first nine games. His average depth of target went up from 8.4 to 9.2. And although he saw just nine more targets from his rookie season, his yardage jumped from 935 to 1,102. However, after Dak Prescott suffered a calf injury in mid-season, Lamb saw his production drop significantly. He had more than 66 yards in just one of his last eight games, and during that span, he saw five or fewer targets five times. Going into this season, he should easily eviscerate the 115-target average he had in his first two years. The main reason is that co-alpha Amari Cooper is gone, and aside from Lamb, the Cowboys do not have another player who is likely to command targets. Prescott has thrown exactly 596 passes in each of his last two full seasons, and it's likely that he'll continue to be a high-volume passer again this year. It's reasonable to expect Lamb to continue improving in his third year in the league. In addition, it's possible that he leads the entire NFL in targets. With his ability to win as both an outside receiver and in the slot, the Dallas coaching staff should be able to consistently get him into favorable receiving situations. Fantasy managers who invest in him will have to make a slight leap of faith that he'll become a superstar this year. If he doesn't, it's unlikely he overtakes established stars like Adams and Diggs.
The Bottom Line
Despite the change in situation, Adams would seem to have the highest floor, as his combination of talent, quarterback and coach should ensure that he's a focal point of the offense. Although it's difficult to go wrong by selecting Diggs, the drop in efficiency last year could become problematic if the Bills become less reliant on the pass. Overall, there's risk in drafting Lamb over these other options, but I do expect that he turns into a superstar this year, and along with high-level QB play, he can potentially be the top-scoring receiver in fantasy this year. When on the clock, I'll select Lamb.
