ADP Battles: Taylor vs. Barkley vs. Wilson

Most experienced fantasy managers go into their drafts with some type of cheat sheet. But let's face it, even with your order of players listed in advance, we all question similarly ranked players when we're on the clock. The goal of this series is to lay out the upside and downside of players who have similar ADPs. 

In previous articles, we looked at players who often go in the first round of drafts. This week, we'll look at options typically available near the beginning of the second round, though there are times when the players listed below land in the first round. 

Jonathan Taylor

Taylor had a rough 2022 after posting over 2,100 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns in 2021. The Colts switched head coaches and drafted QB Anthony Richardson, so will Taylor go back to being an elite fantasy player?

Upside

• Taylor was the overall RB1 in 2021 while rushing for 5.5 yards per carry.
• New coach Shane Steichen has experience running high-quality offenses.
• If Richardson is starting for most of the season, his running ability could create extra lanes for Taylor to run.
• The Colts have a deep group of tight ends and shallow group of wide receivers, so they may use a lot of multi-TE sets that can help boost the running game.

Downside

• Last year happened. Taylor had 4.5 yards per carry, and his numbers were actually better after his high-ankle sprain.
• If the offensive line underperforms again, Taylor won't have much space to run.
• If Anthony Richardson is deemed unready to start, having Gardner Minshew under center would allow defenses to keep their full focus on Taylor.

The Bottom Line

I expect the Indy offensive line to improve, led by star LG Quinton Nelson. Also, with their personnel, Taylor will be in an optimal situation. I expect him to be an elite fantasy producer and will draft him in the latter part of the first round.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley missed 21 of 49 games from 2019-2021, but he bounced back with 16 games played last year en route to 1,650 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. He was an elite performer for the first time since his rookie season. What will he do for an encore?

Upside

• Barkley had nine games with at least 100 scrimmage yards last year.
• He had a high weekly floor, with only three games below 7.5 PPR points.
• He had excellent usage, with 295 rushing attempts and 73 targets.

Downside

• Hasn't signed franchise tag; not expected to report for start of training camp
• 4.4 YPC last year was his second-worst average out of four seasons in which he's played at least 13 games.
• Barkley's 5.9 yards per reception last year was the worst average of his career.
• He finished 2022 in the 45th percentile for broken tackle rate and 50th percentile for yards after reception.

The Bottom Line

Defenses slowed Barkley toward the end of last season, and he's now frustrated with the Giants after the two sides failed to work out a long-term deal this offseason prior to the July 17 negotiation deadline for franchise-tagged players. Also, his injury history is extensive, and one full season played during a contract year hasn't made me a believer. I'm also concerned that the Giants don't have the offensive talent to keep defenses from loading up to stop him. If he falls to the middle of the second round I'd consider drafting him, but not near the 1-2 turn.

Garrett Wilson

Despite terrible quarterback play, Wilson had 1,103 receiving yards as a rookie last year. He'll now get a massive upgrade at QB, swapping out last year's carousel for the stability of Aaron Rodgers. With the improved situation, can Wilson move into the elite tier of wide receivers?

Upside

• Wilson was targeted 147 times last year.
• He had at least 75 yards in seven of his last 10 games.
• He averaged 10 targets after the Week 10 bye.
• Wilson ranked 67th percentile in YAC rate.

Downside

• He caught just 82 of his 147 targets, 56.5 percent, though much of that was due to the QB play.

The Bottom Line

I believe that WIlson's ceiling wasn't realized because of his situation last year. He now plays with a QB who has a history of heavily targeting an alpha receiver, and the Jets have plenty of complementary options but nobody else close to Wilson's talent level. A move up to 1,300 yards should be easy, and I wouldn't be surprised if Wilson joins the Top 5 at his position. 

The Final Word

I am fully bought into the Colts offense, especially as it relates to Taylor, who I'm betting on to be a top-two RB. I also expect Wilson to be a superstar this year, and if I'm picking near the turn in 12-team leagues I have no problem rostering both Taylor and Wilson. I will not be aggressively targeting Barkley. His volume fueled his production, and I think that defenses will be able to limit him because of the players around him.