ADP Analysis: NFC West Players to Watch in 2023

As the NFC West entered the 2022 season, the Rams were coming off a Super Bowl victory. The 49ers were the team the Rams beat in the NFC championship and were excited to have Trey Lance at quarterback. The Cardinals were coming off a playoff appearance and added Marquise Brown to a WR group in the hopes of giving them the high-octane offense that Kliff Kingsbury always wanted. And the Seahawks appeared to be in rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson. 

Flash forward to 2023. The 49ers remain one of the Super Bowl favorites. The Seahawks have every reason to believe they can make the playoffs for a second year in a row. The Rams and Cardinals, however, seem headed in the wrong direction. When thinking about teams going into 2023, check out the current Super Bowl odds on the RotoWire Gambling page.  Let's look at a few of the interesting fantasy options in the division.

Arizona Cardinals

James Conner

Yes, Conner will probably miss some time. He's missed at least two games in each of his six seasons. Conner was sidelined for four games last year, though that was the most games he had missed in four years. Despite durability concerns, his production outweighs the risk. He's been productive behind a poor offensive line in each of his two seasons with the Cardinals. During that time, he's averaged 14 games, 1,074 scrimmage yards, 36 receptions and 13 touchdowns. He'll be 28 this season, so he should have at least one more year of solid production before he begins to slow. He posted a 72nd-percentile yards-after-contact rate as a runner and a 65th-percentile yards-after-catch rate last year. Those numbers are especially impressive for a running back who weighs more than 230. And his role in the offense should be secure. As of now, his only competition for touches is Keaontay Ingram, who was ineffective last year, and Corey Clement, who has 378 scrimmage yards the last four years: 

• Conner recorded a 73rd-percentile broken-tackle rate last year.
• His 4.3 yards per carry equaled his career high (2018).
• He caught 46 passes, second most of his career.
• Conner also rushed for 782 yards, second most of his career.

It's not optimal that the Arizona offensive line projects to be weak again, though Conner has proven that isn't an issue. It's also worrisome that Kyler Murray (knee) might not be ready to start the season, which could limit the entire offense. However, Conner should have volume as a runner and receiver. And Murray has a good chance to play a majority of the season. In drafts where I'm selecting receivers early, Conner is an excellent option at running back.

Los Angeles Rams

Cam Akers

Akers had one of the strangest seasons I've seen from a running back. He was terrible to start the season. He was banished from the Rams for three weeks and there were rumors that he would be traded or released. Then, by the time the fantasy playoffs began, there wasn't an RB in the league as impressive as he was. Whether he wasn't motivated when the season began, or if he was still gaining confidence in the Achilles injury he suffered in 2022, there are few other ways to explain his sub-3.0 yards per carry through Week 12. One point to consider when looking at his season was that after facing five top-10 run defenses in his first seven games, he faced five bottom-10 run defenses in Weeks 11-18. Regardless, he averaged 5.47 yards per carry with his last 75 rushing attempts. That number is hard to dismiss as simply schedule related:

• Akers had a 69th-percentile broken-tackle rate last year.
• He surpassed 100 scrimmage yards in his last four games. 
• From Week 11 on, he rushed for 4.8 yards per carry.

After taking on a bell-cow role to end the season, Akers has just Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers behind him on the depth chart. He should remain the clear lead back.  Also, the Rams offensive line, which was injury-riddled last year, should start this season in much better shape. These factors should provide Akers the opportunity to finish the season as a top-15 running back, and with a depressed ADP after such an odd season, he is a great value pick.

San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk is an excellent receiver. His route-running often allows him to create plenty of separation from cornerbacks. He's also very skilled at getting open in the red zone, especially against zone defenses. If he was in a pass-heavy offense, we might be talking about a top-12 WR. However, he's on the 49ers. With Kyle Shanahan calling the shots, the run game will always be prominent. And since the team has other excellent weapons in Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, there often aren't enough targets to provide Aiyuk with a reliable floor. Despite turnover at quarterback last year, Aiyuk posted career highs with 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns. Unfortunately, he was held to fewer than 10 PPR points eight times while surpassing 15 on five occasions:

• Aiyuk recorded a 66th-percentile yards-after-catch rate.
• He had 17 catches that gained at least 20 yards.
• On seven occasions, he was targeted at least eight times.
• But he was targeted fewer than six times in 10 games.

With a full offseason to integrate Christian McCaffrey as the centerpiece of the offense, it wouldn't be a surprise if the number of wide receiver targets for the 49ers is lower than it was last year. That scenario is one that potentially puts a limit on Aiyuk's upside potential. Also, there are still questions at quarterback. We don't know if Trey Lance (ankle) or Brock Purdy (elbow) will be under center. We're not even sure Purdy will be healthy. And with both QBs having little NFL experience, there's no guarantee the passing game will be consistently effective. As a WR3 (in 12-team leagues), Aiyuk is a reasonable option if the draft cost isn't prohibitive. 

Seattle Seahawks 

Geno Smith

In the nearly 30 years I've been playing fantasy football, one of my few rules is that I won't pay for what I perceive to be a career year. Smith had one of the most improbable breakout seasons I've witnessed. Going into his age-31 season last year, Smith had thrown 34 touchdown passes in 45 career games. HIs career high in passing yards was 3,046, which he achieved as a rookie in 2013. After not winning the Seahawks' starting QB position until the last preseason game, he went on to throw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns. He fired multiple TD strikes in 10 of 11 games Weeks 3-14. However, the end of the season raised some red flags. Although the schedule toughened, and he had a game against the Chiefs with some nasty weather, he finished the regular season with a whimper. He threw one touchdown pass in three of his last four games while throwing for fewer than 216 yards in his last three:

• Smith had a 34:37 TD:INT in his first nine years, but posted a 30:11 last year.
• He threw for fewer than 216 yards eight times.
• He also had just three games with 300 passing yards.

I expect the Seahawks to be a run-heavy team this year, which is in line with coach Pete Carroll's preferred style of play. Also, aside from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks don't have good receiving options, and if either of the top WRs misses time, that would impact Smith. Finally, I'm not willing to bet on Smith repeating his improbable success of 2022. The good news is that his draft cost is low. So those in need of a second-QB option in leagues that require multiple QBs, he should be fine in that capacity. But I won't count on him as a starter in one-QB leagues.