ADP Analysis: Fallout, Reactions and Overreactions after Preseason Week 2

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Published on August 23, 2022

We're looking at ADPs on Underdog, comparing data from last Thursday afternoon to updated numbers Tuesday morning, following the completion of the second slate of exhibitions. A bunch of the guys we see below are the same ones mentioned as fantasy winners/losers in my Week 2 Preseason Recap, which also includes notes on every team. There also are a number of repeats from this same article last week, including rookie running backs Brian Robinson and Isiah Pacheco.

ADP Risers ⬆️

RB Dameon Pierce

RB37 (ADP 106.4) > RB33 (98.7)

Pierce was rested Friday night while most Houston starters played, with coach Lovie Smith noting that he'd seen what he needed to see from the rookie. Marlon Mack got the start and did alright with eight carries for 29 yards, while Rex Burkhead handled most passing situations with the first-team offense and lost a fumble. None of this makes Pierce the Week 1 starter, but it does suggest that outcome is in play.

RB Brian Robinson

RB50 (152.6) > RB47 (136.8)

Robinson started Saturday's exhibition after Antonio Gibson returned the opening kickoff. Gibson then subbed in with the first-team offense — mostly on passing downs with J.D. McKissic sidelined by a groin injury — and later made a couple nice grabs with the second-stringers (Gibson did at least play well, while Robinson was ordinary with eight carries for 31 yards).

I have to admit, I was a fan of Gibson earlier this summer when he'd dropped to Round 7 due to a minor hamstring injury in OTAs and speculation about Robinson's involvement. But I'd rather have Robinson at their current prices, now that the speculation is backed by more words and actions from Coach Ron Rivera, who has discussed his desire for a committee. Gibson is athletically far superior to both Robinson and McKissic, but it's not me who needs to be convinced he deserves another shot in the lead role. As of right now, Rivera and OC Scott Turner clearly are at least mulling a serious demotion.

WR Allen Lazard

WR37 (74.1) > WR35 (71.5)

Part of this is Lazard leapfrogging Amari Cooper, who won't have Deshaun Watson until Week 13. But it's also a little more than that, with Lazard and Romeo Doubs moving up a bit while Christian Watson dropped a smidge (WR67 > WR69) despite returning to practice over the weekend. I haven't really been drafting any of them, and generally have avoided the Green Bay offense. Odd enough, QB Aaron Rodgers might be the best value (QB14) of the bunch.

Side note: I'm surprised to see Cooper falling after the Deshaun Watson suspension announcement (11 games). Underdog's tournament format places a huge emphasis on Weeks 15-17, and we now have confirmation Watson will be available for those weeks (potential outcomes before included a six-game suspension or year-long ban). Watson, by the way, is at QB25, same as last week.

Others

RB Rashaad Penny - RB32 (96.3) > RB31 (93.8)

RB Isiah Pacheco - RB51 (153.5) > RB48 (142.6)

RB Joshua Kelley - RB76 (215.1) > RB66 (210.2)

RB Jaylen Warren - RB83 (215.8) > RB74 (214.2)

WR Gabriel Davis - WR22 (44.1) > WR21 (42.4)

WR Amari Cooper - WR34 (69.9) > WR37 (74.0)

WR George Pickens - WR56 (122.2) > WR52 (116.4)

WR Romeo Doubs - WR62 (135.9) > WR60 (130.1)

WR Alec Pierce - WR78 (175.2) > WR75 (170.7)

TE Isaiah Likely - TE34 (214.8) > TE31 (213.2)

ADP Fallers ⬇️

RB Miles Sanders

RB27 (85.9) > RB29 (88.4)

Sanders has missed a week and a half of practice now, and his ADP rightfully is falling after "leg soreness" was confirmed to be a hamstring injury. The Eagles expect him back for Week 1, but drafters are correct to drop Sanders a few spots in reaction to a likely hammy strain suffered four weeks before the regular-season opener. Also note that Kenneth Gainwell has become a bit more expensive, rising from RB45 to RB43.

RB Kenneth Walker

RB35 (104.6) > RB37 (108.6)

Walker started dropping in the middle of last week due to a groin/abdomen injury, and he continues sliding this week after undergoing some kind of procedure (no details provided, except that it's maybe related to some kind of hernia... but not a "sports hernia". Anyway, the Seahawks are hopeful he'll be back Week 1, but this could impact his early season role even if that does indeed happen, especially now that Rashaad Penny has moved past the groin injury that limited him earlier this month. Also note that Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has a history of being unrealistically optimistic when discussing injury timelines with the media.

RB Isaiah Spiller

RB42 (126.5) > RB45 (142.3)

Spiller came in after Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree in both preseason games, only getting snaps with the third-string offense. More important, Spiller suffered an ankle injury Saturday against Dallas, leaving him week-to-week in the words of coach Brandon Staley. The rookie seems more dart throw than Austin Ekeler handcuff, though he could still emerge as the No. 2 back (and wasn't really being drafted based on expectations for Week 1).

For me, the bigger problem is that Spiller has been overpriced all along, perhaps because many expected him to be a Day 2 pick the past couple years while he starred at Texas A&M. Instead, Spiller went in the fourth round, and to a team with a starting RB coming off a 20-TD season. It doesn't mean Spiller won't have a nice career, but it does mean fantasy upside beyond RB3 range this year requires a teammate injury. Rachaad White (RB41) is a similar deal, except that he's healthy right now and is stuck behind a guy, Leonard Fournette, who is a tier or two below Ekeler. Then there's Brian Robinson, who might actually start Week 1 and has the latest ADP of the three.