This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh
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Both fresh off a bye week, 6-0 Pittsburgh is set to host 5-1 Syracuse on Thursday evening. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS, failing to cover a 3.5-point spread last time out against Cal, winning by two. The total has gone over the mark three times, though both of their conference games have gone under. Syracuse is 3-3 ATS with the under hitting at a 4-2 clip, including all three of their conference matchups.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Betting Odds for Week 9
Spread: Pittsburgh -5.5 (-105 Caesars Sportsbook); Syracuse +5.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 61.5 (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 62.5 (-110 ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Pittsburgh -215 (ESPNBet); Syracuse +185 (BetMGM)
The spread opened at (-3.5) in favor of the Panthers and has steadily risen throughout the week and sits at (-5.5) at nearly all books. I personally have a difficult time predicting it climbs over a touchdown.
Naturally, the moneyline has moved congruently with the rising spread. Pittsburgh opened at (-185) and now is comfortably above (-200) everywhere. The Orange started at (+154) and is (+175-180) at most spots, with BetMGM giving a little more juice.
The total has also slowly crept up, opening at 60.0 and peaking at 63.0 before a minor trend downward.
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Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Betting Picks for Week 9
This is a challenging game for me to find a quality pick and/or angle. Both sides have impressive records, but have they gotten them impressively, or have they beaten quality opponents? Syracuse has surprising wins over UNLV and Georgia Tech, but lost to Stanford. Pittsburgh's best wins are probably at home versus West Virginia and at Cincinnati.
Both teams bring elite passing offenses, with Syracuse ranking second nationally and Pittsburgh 12th. Neither team can stop the pass, ranking 89th and 105th, respectively. Neither team is rushing it terrifically, with Pitt checking in 50th and Syracuse laboring at 120th. Both are statistically sound against the run, ranking 24th and 49th, but I believe those per-game averages are a factor of schedule and some complete shutout outings.
What does it all mean? The narrative would seemingly be passing and points from QBs Kyle McCord and Eli Holstein. And I can certainly buy into this being a back-and-forth shootout. But I'm going to think outside the box. The team that establishes the run and allows their pass defense to regroup will be victorious. And that also keeps the clock moving. Syracuse's rushing struggles are surprising, but LeQuint Allen is still averaging 4.8 ypc. Pittsburgh has gotten three 100-yard games out of Desmond Reid and Holstein is more than capable of rushing as well. I don't believe the Panthers are on upset alert, but given the spread movement, I'm not confident. I'm drawn to the trends that both teams' conference games have gone under the total. Those games finished with 59, 50, 41, 58 and 32 points. That's less than 62.5; I'm not a trend better, but that's where I land.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Expert Pick: under 62.5 points (-110) at ESPN Bet
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Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh Predictions for Week 9
There is a lot of offensive firepower here, which is going to make the under a scary play. Pittsburgh can spread passing targets to five receivers and their backs, while Syracuse has huge-bodied targets in Oronde Gadsden and emerging Jackson Meeks, who has 29 catches and three touchdowns in his last three games.
But I'm banking on this being too obvious and going in the opposite direction. If both sides know what's coming, they've had extra time off to prepare for it and also find ways to run the ball more successfully. Both will find ways to run for 150+ yards while trading blows, with Pitt striking late to remain unbeaten.
Pittsburgh 33-28
