College Football Picks: CFB Week 13 Odds, Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Written by

Chris Bennett

Jeff Edgerton

Greg Vara

Published on November 21, 2024

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Chris' Picks

Here's a shocker: last week was again mediocre, with one game on the wrong side of winning. It's just been a season-long slug, and I'm essentially out of time to get hot. But with two regular-season weeks remaining, I'll get there! Maybe?

Wake Forest gave me a nice back door cover, but Tulane's defense sunk me on the over with Navy, though the offense did its part. Louisville is at least the fifth team I've backed with a big number that blew a double-digit lead. It's just been a snake-bit type of season. I almost wish I was doing worse; I'm not good enough to follow, and I'm not bad enough to fade.

Mississippi (-10.5) at Florida

This number is slowly rising, and anything above 10.5 could be uncomfortable. Winning on the road in the SEC has proven difficult, and this is one of two plays where I'm backing in, further worrying my train of thought. Florida plays hard and hasn't quit, that should be commended and this won't be a pushover for the Rebels. But Florida's win last week also came with an 18 to 42-minute time of possession disparity. Ole Miss' defense isn't LSU's; they're elite. They are coming off a bye, could get Tre Harris back to open up downfield passing, and force countless negative plays up front for the Gators' offense, stalling drives. A slow grind, but they'll extend this to a comfortable margin.

Over 65.5 Miami Miami vs. Wake Forest

The over is 7-2-1 in Miami's 10 games thusfar, so I'm going to bank on this continuing. But it's not just a trend bet. Wake Forest is terrible defensively, allowing 32.5 ppg while ranking 131st against the pass, allowing 281.9 ypg and a 20:8 TD:INT ratio. Cam Ward should top 400 yards here, and Miami is eclipsing that point average with ease. And we saw Wake Forest continue to compete last week, and Miami's defense isn't great either, particularly in the secondary. Nothing suggests last week's bye fixes the Canes' defense. They'll allow 24-ish points, won't cover, but score plenty to make this high total attainable.

Under 47.5 Texas Texas vs. Kentucky

This number is slowly rising, and I'd love to see it tick over a pivotal 48, but I'll ride regardless. Based on the spread, we have an anticipated 33.8 - 13.3 final score. Can Kentucky score two touchdowns? I have my doubts, as the Longhorns have allowed 12 touchdowns all season, with only three teams topping 13 points against them. The Wildcats, too, are stout defensively, allowing 21+ points only four times to date. Make no mistake, the Longhorns aren't on upset alert and will get theirs while not allowing much. But Kentucky makes this a clock-churning, low-scoring affair.

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn

Statistically, this matchup is pretty even so unfortunately, I can't give an angle to back, and it's rather just a feeling. Auburn is averaging 16.0 ppg in conference play while allowing 21.6 ppg. There you go, we have a cover. The Aggies had last week off to lick their wounds after a scoreless second half at South Carolina, and I like what they've got offensively, with Conner Weigman and Marcel Reed providing different looks under center. I also just struggle with finding an angle to suggest a Tiger upset. A&M needs this to continue on their path the the SEC Title game, Auburn hasn't shown form for a signature win essentially the entire time under Hugh Freeze.

Marshall (+3) at Old Dominion

This presents for me as the wrong team being favored. Marshall has won four straight, while Old Dominion has dropped consecutive games and is off a narrow, emotional defeat to in-state rival James Madison. Marshall can't afford a misstep in the conference race, and I'll back them confidently with plus points as a result. Neither team is sound defensively against the run, so it will come down to efficiency and execution. The Monarchs have been better in the red zone offensively, but Marshall ranks 15th in red zone defense. They'll get touchdowns and allow field goals.

Last week: 2-3; Season 28-30-2

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Greg's Picks

Back to the plus side of the column this past week as my chase to get back to even continues.

A great start to the week, winning my first three games, which opened the door to some false hope, but alas, I failed to get that fourth win yet again. The first win was with Northwestern, which hung on for the cover. The Cats played a perfect game in order to get the cover, a fast start plus a slow pace left OSU no time in the end to cover. Win number two was on Illinois, which got back on track as expected and made easy work of MSU. The third win was not as easy as Georgia struggled with Tennessee in the first half, but the Bulldogs hit their stride in the second half an got over the number. The first loss of the week was on Oregon, which never got any separation from Wisconsin. The final game of the week was the over on the BYU-Kansas game and if not for a terrible INT by BYU in the KU end zone at the end of the 1st half, things might have been different in that game.

Connecticut (+10.5) at Syracuse

Syracuse looked really sharp this past week, and there's certainly a possibility that the Orange use that road win over California as a springboard into bowl season, but I have a feeling they might struggle to find separation this week. Both teams enter at 7-3 and while Syracuse appears to be the better team, I'm not sure the Orange should be double-digit favorites. UConn ranks 21st in rush yards per game this season, and Syracuse has trouble stopping the run, which should allow the Huskies an opportunity to keep Kyle McCord and company off the field. UConn wins, but this will be a close game.

Iowa (-6.5) at Maryland

Maryland is in a tailspin right now and I'm not sure the Terps get out of it before the season ends. The Terps have lost four of their past five games and they aren't just losing, they're getting trucked. All four losses have come by 20 points or more, and sure, one of those losses was against Oregon, but the other three were against Minnesota, Northwestern, and Rutgers. The losses to Rutgers and Northwestern were at home! Iowa lost a winnable game this past week at UCLA, but that should serve as motivation to get back on track this week.

Illinois (-1) at Rutgers

The previous pick feeds into this play. I mentioned that Rutgers beat Maryland by two scores this past week, which is great for the Scarlet Knights, but when you factor in how poorly the Terps are playing right now, it waters down that win a bit. That's not why I'm on Illinois here, though, well, not the main reason anyway. I was on the Illini this past week because I felt that they hit a rut but were more than capable of handling business against any mid-tier Big Ten team, and last week, they proved me right. I expect the same this week.

Minnesota (+11.5) vs. Penn State

One thing I've learned over the years is that Minnesota under P.J. Fleck has always been more dangerous as an overlooked underdog than an overhyped favorite. I mentioned my hesitation about backing the Gophers two weeks ago at Rutgers as it always seems like there is a point in the season where everyone is starting to believe, and that's when the rug gets pulled out. Well, we are past that point, and now everyone has given up on the Gophers and given them little to no chance in this game, and that's often when they play their best. I'm not going to get into the numbers here because Penn State has all the advantages, and yet, I feel that the Gophers will somehow make this an interesting game.

Over (67) Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

These teams have been wrapped up in shootouts all season and I see no reason that should stop this week. Defense is a huge issue for both of these teams, especially stopping the pass. OSU ranks 199th in passing yards against this season and Texas Tech ranks 133rd. Neither team excels at stopping the run either, so the offenses should have the entire menu available. I am a little concerned about the wind however, right now the forecast is calling for 15 mph winds, if that increases or if it's gusty, it could cause an issue, but even if the pass games are limited, I think each team should be able to run the ball.

Last Week: 3-2-0; Season 28-32-0

Jeff's Picks

The Stanford win surprised everyone, and Washington State played their way into a loss, but those were the only blemishes on my card. Stanford's win is just one of those blips on the radar where almost everyone lost money, so I consider Week 12 a success after some gut-check games that I called correctly. Arizona State, Baylor and Tulane are all covered. I'm still over .500, and hitting 60 percent is probably in the rearview, but can we go 10-0 over the last two weeks of the regular season?

Texas (-20.5) vs. Kentucky

Texas' defense is superior, and Kentucky's offense is terrible. That's all you need to know when making an endorsement for this game. Texas has all the bells and whistles on offense, but even if Quinn Ewers struggles, they can throw Arch Manning in to give the offense a boost and do just enough to beat the spread. Kentucky might not even find their way into the red zone in this one - take the Longhorns and the points.

Arizona State -3 @ vs. BYU

These two teams are headed in opposite directions. BYU's loss to Kansas was a big hit to their morale, and the Cougars' vulnerabilities are starting to show. While Jake Retzalff and the offense can put points on the board, they sometimes have difficulty getting vertical, and they are outclassed offensively in this game. I think Sam Leavitt is on a better trajectory than Retzlaff, and he has incredible synergy with Jordan Tyson. Add in Cam Skaatebo, and you have a fired-up, super-charged offense that is playoff-minded. The Sun Devils are also playing very well on defense, and they'll keep BYU contained in Tempe.

Citadel +49.5 @ Clemson

If you look back at Clemson's betting record against teams where they are over 30-point favorites, it's pretty bleak. They've failed to cover seven consecutive times. Citadel has won three of their last four against fellow FCS opponents, but they have no shot of winning here. Still, I am going to go with historical data and take the Citadel. The Tigers have multiple holes to fill on the offensive line, and although the backups should be able to keep Cade Klubnik protected, the first-stringers on both sides of the ball need some extra time to heal before they take on South Carolina. The Tigers depend on miscues by Miami and SMU to have a shot at the playoffs, so they aren't really looking for style points here. They want to take care of business and move on to the Gamecocks, where they can make a better statement against a ranked opponent. Look for the second string to take over early, slowing Clemson's offense.

Notre Dame -14.5 vs. Army (@ Yankee Stadium)

I'm using Notre Dame's drubbing of Navy as a guidebook for this pick. Although Blake Horvath had a hand issue, the Irish weren't fooled by option tricks and contained that offense handily. Army works a similar scheme, and Bryson Daily is also banged up, so even though they run a stronger version of this offense, I doubt they'll have much success against a well-cached Irish defense. Marcus Freemen will look to score points for all four quarters, as the team is notorious for running up the score. This is a great opportunity to solidify a high seed in the playoffs against a ranked opponent.

UNDER 57.5 Boise State @ Wyoming Wyoming

The cold weather will be bone-chilling in this high-altitude contest, and the weather report is a driving force behind this pick. Winds are supposed to exceed 25 m.p.h. by kickoff, which will limit both team's ability to pass. The Broncos will lean on Ashton Jeanty, but I anticipate a slow-paced contest in adverse conditions. I expect this game to fall comfortably under the projected total.

Last Week: 3-2-0

Season: 31-29-0

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