This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Alabama vs. Tennessee
It is Week 8 or as it's referred to by Bama and Vols faithful "the third Saturday in October." This will be the 107th meeting between bitter rivals, Alabama has the historical edge in this matchup with a record of 59-39-7. This heated rivalry has cranked back up in recent years as Josh Heupel took over the Tennessee program in 2021, in his second year as head coach he lit up his first traditionary cigar with a 52-49 win breaking Alabama's 15-game win streak. Another hard fought battle looks to be in store for this one as both teams have been on a similar path. Both teams ranked in the top-5 two weeks ago before getting knocked off by unranked opponents. Alabama now sits at number seven while Tennessee sits at number 11 in the country. After tough losses followed by victories by the skin of their teeth these two SEC powerhouses will look to add to their College Football Playoff resume in a big test towards being selected to the 12-team playoff.
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Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Alabama -3 (Caesars Sportsbook); Tennessee +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Alabama -148 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Tennessee +130 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 56.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 57 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Picks for Week 8
Tennessee started the season off very strong with blowout wins against Chattanooga, NC State, and Kent State. Since then they have cooled off a bit, they did go into Norman and beat Oklahoma 25-15, but followed it up with a loss to Arkansas, then a narrow overtime victory over Florida. This same hot and cold start goes for their quarterback Nico Iamaleava as he started out hot averaging 233 passing yards per game over the first three games while accumulating five touchdowns and two interceptions over those three games. In his past three games, Iamaleava has averaged 174 yards per game while accumulating one touchdown and one interception total.
Much like Tennessee, Alabama also started the season off hot with blowout wins over Western Kentucky, South Florida (although the box score looks like a blowout this one was too close for too long), and Wisconsin. They followed up a great start with a huge win over at the time top-ranked Georgia but then proceeded to lose to Vanderbilt for the first time in 40 years.
The Crimson Tide followed up their brutal loss with a narrow victory over South Carolina. A similar story can be said for Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe that was said for Iamaleava. Milroe started off the season about as perfect as can get totaling eight touchdowns through the air with no interceptions while also adding six rushing touchdowns through the first three games. However, Milroe has now thrown an interception in each of his last three games totaling four, while throwing just four touchdowns as well.
On the other side of things, the Tennessee defense has been extremely consistent as they have yet to allow a 20-point game to any opponent. The Tennessee defense also ranks second in the nation in total defense, allowing just 249.3 yards per game and is fourth in the nation in points per game allowing an average of 10.7 points. Alabama on the other hand has not faired quite as well as they are allowing 342.5 yards per game and 20.8 points per game.
However, a deeper dive into the numbers with Expected Points Added (EPA) metrics (EPA quantifies the results of each play based on the historical average outcome of plays of similar situations) shows these teams are not as far off defensively as the raw data suggests. The Tennessee defense currently ranks second in overall defensive EPA while Alabama ranks fifth. Tennessee has the top defense in terms of EPA/Rush and seventh in EPA/Dropback while Alabama ranks 10th in EPA/Rush and 11th in EPA/Dropback.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Expert Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs. Tennessee Predictions for Week 8
This game looks to be a very competitive one and this game being played in Tennessee will likely have a major impact. Alabama looks to have a slight edge offensively however Tennessee may have a slight edge defensively. Another big factor here may be the experience of junior quarterback Jalen Milroe who has seen many big games in hostile environments, while freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has yet to see a top-tier SEC matchup in his career.
With a very competitive game in the works and Alabama having to go on the road to Knoxville this one might get hairy as Alabama has not put together a full 60-minute game yet this year and I don't expect that to happen in Knoxville. I don't think this game should be more than a field goal spread with the added half point for Tennessee (on FanDuel) here I'd take the value there. Alabama 30, Tennessee 28.
