This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
First off, Happy Holidays to everyone reading this. It, literally, is the most wonderful time of the year.
As far as college basketball is concerned, we are unofficially to the one-third pole, and we're even starting to get some early conference games underway. As such, we're starting to get a very good idea about some of the contenders, as well as potential players of the year, etc. A lot of the elite programs have even faced each other already, as these holiday tournaments and neutral-site games offer some of the elite programs to get front and center early and often.
2023-24 NCAA National Champion Picks
The defending national champion UConn Huskies (+1400) are off to a 10-2 start, including wins over Gonzaga, Indiana, North Carolina and Texas. That's what makes Wednesday's Big East opener loss at Seton Hall all the more inexplicable. Despite the loss, UConn ranks 28th in the country with 84.2 points per game (PPG), while checking in 15th overall in field-goal percentage 50.2 percent. Toss in a turgid defense, and there is very little reason not to like UConn's chances at the repeat.
However, we haven't had a Billy Donovan took the Florida Gators to consecutive titles in 2006 and 2007.
Purdue (+850) is currently the chalk, but after bowing out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season against Fairleigh Dickinson, bettors are likely not going to be terribly keen sinking money into the Boilermakers. However, we saw Virginia lost as a No. 1 seed against No. 16 UMBC in March 2018, before storming back in 2019 to take the whole ball of wax. So, perhaps the Boilermakers will be able to follow that blueprint.
Among the top-tier teams with the shortest favorites, for my money I am backing Kansas (+1200). The Jayhawks added C Hunter Dickinson via the transfer portal from Michigan, and he has been everything as advertised. The Jayhawks are currently 10-1 overall, with wins over UConn, Indiana, Kentucky, Mizzou and Tennesse, which is already likely enough to punch its ticket to the NCAA Tournament, and we haven't even gotten to the new year yet.
If you're looking at some longer odds, there are plenty of teams worthy of consideration. First off, I wouldn't consider Duke (+2200), as you're paying for the name. It was dropped by Arizona at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and it has losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech on the road. It did pick up a nice victory over Baylor this week at MSG, perhaps renewing a little bit of its shine. Kyle Filipowski is averaging 17.9 PPG and 9.3 RPG, and he is a one-man wrecking crew.
Another team with short odds because of its big name is Michigan State (+3500). Similar to Duke, Sparty's biggest win is against Baylor. However, it lost to Arizona, it lost to Duke, and it lost badly against Wisconsin at home, while also losing games against James Madison and Nebraska, too. At 6-5, Michigan State has an uphill climb just to get into the NCAA Tournament, let alone win the whole thing.
And Florida Atlantic (+4000) has some rather short odds, too. The Owls rolled up 28 regular-season wins, and seven postseason victories, en route to their first-ever Final Four appearance. While the schedule has been brutal for their standards, the Owls have wins over Butler, Liberty, St. Bonaventure, Texas A&M and Virginia Tech. However, this isn't a team that is going to sneak up on anyone. We'll get a good idea where FAU is at when it squares off with Arizona soon, a measuring stick game, if you will.
A better value to win all the marbles might be North Carolina (+4000), which has the same odds as FAU, Memphis and Texas A&M, but a much better chance at taking it all. Head coach Hubert Davis has done a great job with eight wins in 11 games overall, with only neutral-site losses to UConn and Kentucky, as well as an OT setback to Villanova. It scored wins over Arkansas and Oklahoma, and R.J. Davis has fired out of the chute with 21.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG and 3.0 APG, while shooting 94.6 percent from the free-throw line. Oh, and Armando Bacot is averaging a double-double at 15.1 PPG and 11.0 RPG.
Updated 2023-24 National Champion Picks:
- Kansas Jayhawks (+1200)
- North Carolina Tar Heels (+4000)
2023-24 National Player of the Year Picks
As far as the Wooden Award, which goes to the most dynamic player in the nation, that's a little more wide open. Purdue's Zach Edey has a special prop at FanDuel. No (+155) for Edey to win the Wooden Award is a strong play. The 7-foot-4, 300-pounder from Toronto is a behemoth in the middle, and he is averaging 24.5 PPG, 10.6 RPG and 2.5 BPG through the first 11 games. He is second in the nation in scoring to Southern Illinois' Xavier Johnson (24.8 PPG). However, there are so many other batter values.
I picked Dickinson (+370) at the beginning of the season at +750, and that number has been halved. He is tied with teammate Kevin McCullar Jr. for the team lead with 19.2 PPG, and he has managed 12.7 RPG, 1.8 AGP, 1.3 SGP and 1.3 BPG through 11 games. He has been everything as advertised for Kansas, and he is just as dominant a player as Edey, with roughly double the value.
The books considering the Wooden Award a two-horse race at this point, with Edey and Dickinson as the clear-cut favorites. But if anyone is going to crash the party, I'd consider UNC's Bacot (+12000). He has tremendously long odds, making him a great value. He is currently 5th in the nation with 11.3 RPG, while posting a healthy 15.2 PPG with 1.3 APG. Bacot had 13 points and 13 rebounds in a loss against UConn on Dec. 5, and he pulled down 18 boards against Villanova on Nov. 23 . Bacot has the potential to improve as the ACC schedule goes along, and he has a legit chance to scoot up the charts as long as he can chop down his turnovers somewhat.
Updated 2023-24 Wooden Award Picks:
- Zach Edey NOT to win Wooden Award (+155) - FanDuel only
- Hunter Dickinson (+750)
- Armando Bacot (+12000)
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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