This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Feast Week doesn't take any days off. Wednesday's college hoops slate brings us another action-packed day. Here are my predictions for three select games tipping off Wednesday evening from Fort Myers, Florida, and the Bahamas.
Oklahoma vs. Providence
These two teams are incredibly similar at first glance. Both are undefeated and neither has played any decent opponent. In fact, out of all 364 teams in D-1, Oklahoma has had the easiest strength of schedule and Providence has had the third-easiest. That said, these teams are significantly different when diving into the numbers.
When the Sooners have the ball on Wednesday, they're in for a challenge The Friars rank 31st in defensive efficiency, so it's a tough unit to crack, but the Sooners do a couple of things well that should help them overcome. Oklahoma doesn't turn the ball over much, ranking 59th in offensive turnover percentage. It's strong on the offensive glass, ranking 78th in rebounding percentage. And last, but surely not least, the Sooners take quality shots, ranking 43rd in effective field goal percentage.
When the Friars have the ball, the Sooners' defense presents a similar challenge, ranking 30th in efficiency, although Providence doesn't have the same offensive upside as Oklahoma. To start, the Friars rank much worse in offensive efficiency, 139th among all D-1 teams compared to 67th for Oklahoma. Second, Providence has a major issue with turnovers. The Friars rank 300th in offensive turnover percentage and the problem is compounded by Oklahoma's relentless defense, which has the second-highest steal percentage among all D-1 teams. It's a good bet that Oklahoma will win the turnover margin on Wednesday. Additionally, Providence has an inefficient one-dimensional attack. The Friars are attempting three-pointers at the fourth-highest rate despite making under 32 percent, 224th in the nation. The Friars are also struggling from the charity stripe, making under 61 percent. Between its offensive sloppiness, inefficiency from long-distance, and futility with free throws, Providence doesn't have many ways it can reliably score other than inside the paint. Note, this could change if star player Bryce Hopkins returns from injury. He can put up a huge amount of points when healthy, although it's not clear if he'll be limited even if he returns on Wednesday.
All in all, given the better offensive attack, I'm laying the points with the Sooners in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oklahoma -2.5
Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina
The Hokies are on a three-game skid, though two of the losses came against teams with a fair shot at making the NCAA Tournament, Penn State and Michigan. In the middle of those two losses, however, Virginia Tech dropped a home game to Jacksonville after leading by 10 points at halftime, so this team still has a lot to work on, primarily its offensive game. The Hokies are ranked 101st in defensive efficiency, not good by any means, but much better than its offense, which ranks 179th.
South Carolina, meanwhile, doesn't have a three-game losing streak, but it has an identical record of 3-3. And like its opponent on Wednesday, South Carolina has lost to the same types of opponents. The Gamecocks opened the season with a home loss to North Florida, No. 177 in overall efficiency, before losing to Indiana and Xavier more recently. South Carolina appears okay on both ends of the court, ranking 99th in offensive efficiency and 73rd on defense.
In comparing these teams against each other, the Hokies appear to have an edge on the offensive side of the court. Although Virginia Tech has had problems scoring, it does a couple of things well at an elite level, giving them a chance to win Wednesday's game. The Hokies are among the best on the offensive glass, ranking 15th in rebounding percentage, and they're drawing a ton of contact at the rim, shooting free throws at the 35th-highest rate in D-1. These are important to note because South Carolina isn't strong in either of these areas on defense. The Gamecocks rank 196th in defensive rebounding percentage and 202nd in defensive free-throw attempt rate, so the Hokies can likely find extra points in the paint and from the charity stripe. When playing in the other direction, South Carolina doesn't do anything particularly well on offense other than getting to the free-throw line. They are making under 32 percent from behind the arc, so this is not an area of strength, either.
Between the two squads, I have to take the team that is significantly better on the offensive glass and more physical in the paint. The scoring woes for Virginia Tech may persist, but I'm betting the aforementioned matchup advantages will make all the difference. I'm taking the points with the underdog in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia Tech +5
Michigan vs. Xavier
The Wolverines are off to a good start in their first year under head coach Dusty May, winning five of their first six games. The only loss came against Wake Forest, 72-70, not an awful loss but that's a game they could've had. Michigan bounced back with a double-digit victory over TCU and hasn't lost since.
The Musketeers, on the other hand, remain perfect at 6-0, though their strength of schedule is lacking. Xavier defeated Wake Forest by 15 points at home and beat South Carolina by nine points in Fort Myers, though the Musketeers still rank 348th in the strength of schedule.
When Michigan has the ball on Wednesday, its usual advantages are noticeably mitigated by Xavier. The Wolverines are elite on the offensive glass, ranking 11th in the nation in rebounding percentage, however, the Musketeers are elite on the defensive glass, ranking 11th in the same category. Similarly, the Wolverines are making over 62 percent of shots inside the arc while the Musketeers are holding opponents to under 44 percent, the 35th-best percentage allowed. It's also important to note, that Michigan has one severe weakness that will likely come into play on Wednesday, ball-handling. The Wolverines rank 346th in offensive turnover percentage, a stat that's never good but is made much worse when playing a team like Xavier which ranks 22nd in defensive steal percentage. The Musketeers appear to have the edge at this end.
When Xavier has the ball, scoring won't be easy against Michigan's defense, although it does a couple of things well that should help. First, the Musketeers are among the most careful teams in the nation, ranking 34th in offensive turnover percentage. This is important because Michigan ranks 16th in defensive turnover percentage, so Xavier should be able to limit the usual amount of turnovers that the Wolverines enjoy. The other area where Xavier is strong is its offensive attack from the perimeter. The Musketeers are making over 40 percent of their shots from behind the arc, 20th in the nation, and they rank fourth in assists per field goals. This combination usually makes life hard for opposing teams on defense.
Overall, Michigan might have the edge in overall efficiency heading into Wednesday, but I believe Xavier is well-equipped to get the job done. I'm taking the Musketeers and the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +1.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Oklahoma -2.5
- Virginia Tech +5
- Xavier +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
