This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Wednesday college hoops slate is longer than we've seen in recent days, thanks to many more leagues resuming or tipping off the conference season. Here are my predictions for a few select matchups.
Georgia Tech at 
Florida State
The Yellow Jackets lost to a good Nevada Wolfpack team in their last game, snapping a four-game winning streak. Before this loss, Georgia Tech had won six of seven games, including resume-building wins over Mississippi State and Duke. The Yellow Jackets still don't have a high-efficiency rating, relatively speaking, but these performances have shown that they're a feisty group nonetheless.
The Seminoles, meanwhile, are going in the opposite direction, having lost five of seven games following its victory over Colorado on November 21st. The latter is proving to be a signature win, but unfortunately for Florida State, it's not likely to amount to much considering the current record and discouraging losses to the likes of South Florida and Lipscomb.
Comparing these teams against each other, Georgia Tech has a massive rebounding advantage, specifically on the offensive glass. The Yellow Jackets are collecting offensive boards at the 21st-highest rate in the country, and they're facing a Seminoles team that struggles on the defensive glass, ranking 281st in defensive rebounding percentage. The other area where Georgia Tech has an advantage is defensive shooting numbers. Florida State currently has the better defensive efficiency rating, but there's more to the story. The Yellow Jackets are holding opponents to the 49th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation, compared to the 144th-lowest for the Seminoles, and the former is also holding opponents to 28 percent from behind the arc, the 18th-lowest percentage allowed, compared to 34 percent allowed the latter.
Overall, these teams are going in different directions. Georgia Tech has won most of its games since defeating two potential tournament teams in late November, while Florida State has dropped most of its recent games, including losing three of its last five home games. All things considered, I'd much rather take the points with the team that already took down Duke. I'm going with the Yellow Jackets in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgia Tech +4
Xavier at 
Villanova
Xavier endured a rough stretch early in the season, losing five of seven games at one point, but it has since rebounded and won three of its last four, including a noteworthy victory over archrival Cincinnati. Xavier has won mostly thanks to a strong defense, ranked 24th in efficiency, an important attribute considering it played an extremely challenging schedule thus far, ranking 46th in difficulty, per KenPom.
Villanova similarly went through a rough patch, losing three straight games at the turn of November-December, and it has also rallied to win three straight, including a key victory over Creighton. And much like their guests on Wednesday, the Wildcats also feature a stout defense, ranking 17th in efficiency.
When predicting how this game will play out, points will be scarce. One could reasonably expect Xavier's offense (ranked 82nd in efficiency) to have a tough time on the road against a top-notch defense. At the same time, Villanova will also have a problem on its hands. The Musketeers are well-equipped to defend against the Wildcats' main weapon -- the three-point shot. Villanova is attempting shots from behind the arc at the eighth-highest frequency in the nation, so this is an essential part of their game plan. Xavier is holding opponents to 29 percent on shots from behind the arc this season, the 33rd-lowest percentage allowed.
Considering the defensive strengths of both teams, I like our chances of seeing a low-scoring game. Villanova also makes a consistent effort to slow the game down, playing at a pace that ranks 314th in the country, thereby limiting the total number of possessions in the game. For this reason and everything mentioned above, I'm betting on the under in this game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier at Villanova - Under 141
Indiana at 
Nebraska
The Hoosiers do two things well. They're among the best at drawing contact in the paint, and they're among the best at making baskets inside the paint. But unfortunately for Indiana, it's facing a team that is built to counter both of these strengths.
First, the Hoosiers have the 10th-highest offensive free-throw attempt rate in the nation, while Nebraska ranks 16th on defense in the same category. Second, Indiana is making over 55 percent of two-point shots, but Nebraska is holding opponents to under 44 percent on shots inside the arc, the 21st-lowest percentage allowed. This is a gigantic problem for the Hoosiers, possibly insurmountable because they cannot shoot three-pointers. Indiana is barely making under 32 percent from behind the arc, but what's far worse is that they rarely attempt them. Indiana has the sixth-lowest three-point attempt rate among all D1 teams, and when factoring in the low make percentage, only 18 percent of its total points come from three-pointers, the sixth-lowest percentage in the nation. This isn't an issue against weaker opponents or teams with soft frontcourts, but this is a major problem when facing a team like Nebraska. For good measure, the Huskers also have better rebounding percentages on both ends of the court.
Given the major advantages that the home team has in this matchup, I have to go with Nebraska. Indiana will likely keep it close for a half, but I'm betting Nebraska will pull away and cover before it's all said and done. I'm laying the points with the Huskers in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska -5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Georgia Tech +4
- Xavier at Villanova - Under 141
- Nebraska -5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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