This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Wednesday's college hoops slate is a bit lighter than usual, but we've still got a few matchups to work with. Here are my predictions for a couple of select games on Tuesday evening.
Southeastern Louisiana at Louisiana
Here we have a textbook case of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness.
Southeastern Louisiana is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, ranking 310th in offensive efficiency, and it's taking on a Louisiana team that has struggled to get stops, ranking 338th in defensive efficiency. On paper, it's easy to say these two sides cancel each other out, however, there's one area that will likely sway the outcome. Louisiana ranks 109th in defensive turnover percentage and 127th in defensive steals, an important note because the Lions are among the most careless teams in the nation, ranking 311th in offensive turnover percentage and 268th in offensive steals. Outside of this area, both teams are generally poor in most categories at this end of the court.
When playing in the other direction, both teams are typically at their best. Louisiana ranks 191st in offensive efficiency, 236th in effective field goal percentage, and 92nd in offensive turnover percentage. The Ragin' Cajuns might not be great at knocking down shots, but at least they take care of the ball. The Lions, meanwhile, have comparable marks on defense. They rank 124th in efficiency, 132nd in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 82nd in defensive turnovers. Unlike the other end of the court, neither team has any noticeable advantages on this end.
At first glance, it's tough to bet on a team like Louisiana. The Ragin' Cajuns have yet to defeat a D-1 team, although to be fair, they rank 89th in strength of schedule. If they had scheduled a team from the bottom levels of the D-1, they would likely have more than one win to their credit. Either way, the fact remains that Louisana is the better offensive team, and though its defense isn't great, it should be able to take advantage of one of the many offensive weaknesses of Southeastern Louisiana. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Louisiana -3
Cal Baptist at San Diego State 
The Lancers enter Wednesday with a 5-4 record, although they don't have any quality wins and rank 320th in strength of schedule. Not the best resume. Cal Baptist is coming off its first true road game of the season, a 74-59 loss at UCF, again not the most encouraging sign.
The Aztecs, on the other hand, have won their last three games including an overtime win against Houston. San Diego State also defeated Creighton during Feast Week, giving them two prominent victories to bolster their credentials. San Diego State has several new faces on the team since making the Sweet 16 back in March, although you would never know it looking at the stats. The Aztecs once again have an elite defense with their scoring ability not quite at the same level, though still decent.
When the Lancers have the ball on Wednesday, they'll likely have a bad time. The Aztecs rank ninth in defensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage allowed, and they're also holding opponents to under 40 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the second-lowest mark in the nation. The latter stat is especially noteworthy because Cal Baptist has struggled to hit long-range shots, making under 31 percent of shots outside the arc. On top of this low percentage, the Lancers rank 287th in three-point attempt rate, further underscoring their lack of options with outside scoring. Also, it's worth pointing out that Cal Baptist does not generate many assists with its offense, ranking near the bottom of D-1 at 331st, again highlighting the offensive issues. It's hard enough to score on San Diego State's defense, and when you can't make three-pointers and don't pass to players for open shots, the task becomes overwhelming.
When the Aztecs have the ball, they face a much easier challenge. The Lancers rank 242nd in defensive efficiency, and they don't do many things well on that end of the court. They rank 276th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 201st in turnover percentage, so San Diego State should see plenty of open looks. This is important because the Aztecs aren't the sharpest offensive team, although they feed off their defense and know how to bury an opponent when given the chance. San Diego State ran away from Creighton, winning 71-53, and then they blew past their last two opponents, Fresno State and San Diego, winning each game by at least 17 points.
In recent years, San Diego State's offense has been a liability at times, although this year it's playing well enough off its defense that it's already pulled off two massive wins. On top of that, the Aztecs have handled their business against lesser opponents, winning by big margins. I don't always lay double-digit points, but in this case, I like our odds of San Diego State posting a dominant home win. I'm laying the points with the Aztecs in this one.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. San Diego State already held Creighton to 53 points and Houston to 65 points in regulation, so it's more than capable of holding Cal Baptist to a low number. A low-scoring game appears even more likely when considering the style of each team. The Aztecs have consistently played at a slower pace under head coach Brian Dutcher, and this year is no different, as the team ranks 258th in adjusted tempo. The Lancers have the same preference, ranking 346th in adjusted tempo last year, with this year's squad coming in at No. 297. It's possible San Diego State scores too many points and busts the under, but I like our odds of the defense doing its job and keeping the overall number low.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Diego State -15 and Under 135.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Louisiana -3
- San Diego State -15
- Cal Baptist at San Diego State - Under 135.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
