This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We tip off the New Year with several intriguing Big Ten and ACC matchups. Here are my predictions for some select games on Tuesday's college hoops slate.
Purdue at 
Maryland
Purdue entered the year as one of the top title contenders and it's lived up to the hype. The Boilermakers rank in the top 10 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have already defeated several elite teams such as Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona to name a few. Purdue only has a single blemish on its record, a four-point overtime loss at Northwestern on December 1st, which happens to be its only true road game of the season, with Tuesday marking the second true road game.
Maryland, meanwhile, entered the year with raised expectations but early-season losses to Davidson and UAB quickly recalibrated the projections for this team. In any event, since starting the year at 1-3, Maryland has now won eight of nine games, including a road victory at UCLA.
When forecasting how Tuesday's game will unfold, it appears we'll have a defensive battle on our hands. Maryland has won most of its games with a strong defense, ranking 25th in efficiency, while its offense has been relatively lackluster, ranking 134th in offensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Terrapins appear well equipped to defend Zach Edey and company as Maryland is holding opponents to 42 percent on two-point shots, the 11th-lowest percentage in the nation.
I tend to think Maryland will keep the game close and cover the number, but ultimately I prefer the under. The Terrapins are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation, making under 28 percent, so if they pull off the upset or keep it close, it will most likely occur thanks to an excellent defensive performance. I'm taking the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 142
North Carolina at 
Pittsburgh
The Tar Heels built a strong resume with their performances against non-conference opponents, although they were far from perfect. They lost three of their toughest games, losing to Villanova, Connecticut, and Kentucky, and their defense completely no-showed on several occasions. Now, North Carolina travels to play an upstart Pittsburgh team, in what will be the Tar Heels' first true road game of the season.
The Panthers, in contrast, are slightly better on defense, although they rank in the top 65 of the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, so they're a capable group at either end of the court. Despite losing a few games to competitive opponents, Pittsburgh has won by double digits in all nine of its victories, so it's still a consistent and proficient team when looking at the big picture.
Comparing these teams side-by-side, the Panthers have a clear advantage in a couple of key areas that can help them secure the win. First, Pittsburgh is a much better rebounding team. The Panthers rank higher than the Tar Heels in rebounding percentage on both ends of the court, so one can reasonably project Pittsburgh to win the rebounding category.
Second, Pittsburgh also has an edge on the perimeter. The Panthers are holding opponents to 25 percent from behind the arc, the second-lowest percentage allowed among all D1 teams. North Carolina is making over 36 percent from three-point range, so this defense will help neutralize a valuable weapon. Going in the other direction, the Panthers are one of the most effective outside scoring teams, with over 36 percent of their total points coming from three-pointers, the 45th-highest percentage in the nation. This game plan should work in their favor on Tuesday, as North Carolina has held opponents to 33 percent on three-point shots, right along the D1 average.
All in all, assuming Pittsburgh can play up to its usual standard, this should be a close game that comes down to the wire. Given the edges listed above, and their home-court advantage, I'm taking the points with the Panthers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Pittsburgh +4
Wake Forest at 
Boston College
The Demon Deacons are riding a seven-game winning streak, which is nice, although all the wins came at home and this team hasn't looked the same outside of Winston-Salem. Wake Forest has only played four games away from home and it lost three of them. Moreover, the Demon Deacons dropped their only true road game of the season at Georgia on Nov. 10, 80-77, an important outcome because Tuesday will be their first true road game since that date, and they're facing a team that has a similar efficiency rating.
The Eagles enter Tuesday with a four-game win streak, with one of the victories coming at Brooklyn against St. John's. Boston College is on a clear upward trajectory, as it started the season ranked 128th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and it's worked its way up to 90th.
When stacking these teams against each other, Boston College is better in several categories. It's better on the boards, ranking higher in offensive and defensive rebounding rates. It's better in offensive turnover percentage, as well as offensive block rate, also important because both of these teams are effective at blocking shots.
Tuesday will be an important test for both teams. Wake Forest hasn't played away from home in over a month, and it lost its only true road game of the season. Boston College needs to improve on defense, but if it plays how it played against St. John's, then it should successfully defend its home court. I'm going with the Eagles in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boston College +2.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Purdue at Maryland - Under 142
- Pittsburgh +4
- Boston College +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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