This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Tuesday's college hoops slate features the Jimmy V Classic from Madison Square Garden, where four notable basketball programs clash in a doubleheader. Elsewhere, a pair of rebuilding Big East teams battle for a coveted conference victory. Coming off a week where I won 10 of 15 picks, here are my predictions for a trio of games on Tuesday evening.
Tennessee 
vs. Miami 
According to the most recent AP Top 25 and Coaches polls, the Tennessee Volunteers are the new number-one team in the nation. Sometimes there's a big discrepancy between public polls and data charts, but it's nearly unanimous in this case. Tennessee ranks second on KenPom's overall efficiency list, and it ranks top 10 at both ends of the court, giving us a team that is sure to be a tough out come March. That said, the Volunteers have only played two teams that might make the Big Dance, Louisville and Baylor, so their next two games will give us a better sense of where they truly stand.
The Hurricanes, in contrast, are reeling. Miami has lost its last six games, and while it's true that most came against good teams, one came at home against Charleston Southern, a team that ranks 277th in overall efficiency. Not good, to say the least.
Miami's biggest issue is its defense, which is unbelievably bad. The Hurricanes rank 262nd in defensive efficiency, 273rd in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 307th in defensive turnover percentage. They are slightly above average in defensive rebounding, 129th, but that's the only real positive stat for them defensively. These are terrible numbers when facing any team, and even more so against Tennessee, which ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage. It's hard to imagine Miami getting many stops on Tuesday.
Miami's saving grace, if it has one, is its offense, which is quite great. The Hurricanes rank 27th in offensive efficiency, 36th in effective field goal percentage, 48th in offensive turnovers, and 147th in offensive rebounding. The Hurricanes' offensive skills haven't been enough to overcome its lack of defense in recent games, but this side of the court offers a glimmer of hope if Miami has any chance of turning its season around. But it won't be easy on Tuesday, as most college hoops fans are likely already aware and accustomed to Tennessee having an elite defense, and this year is no exception.
Overall, it's tough to back a team with a defense like Miami's, but at the same time, it's tough to fade a team that has the offensive potential like Miami. I lean toward taking the points, but ultimately, I prefer our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. Tennessee has shown it can put up over 90 points against teams with better defensive stats, so I'm betting Miami will put its best foot forward to try and end its skid, even though an upset appears extremely unlikely. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145
Arkansas 
vs. Michigan 
The Razorbacks enter Tuesday with a 7-2 record, aiming to earn their biggest win of the season. Arkansas previously lost to Baylor and Illinois, both on neutral courts, so it's still looking for its first signature win under coach John Calipari. The Razorbacks won at Miami, 76-73, in their last game against a team from a high-major conference, so they're showing signs of being a solid group despite the lack of quality wins up to this point.
The Wolverines, meanwhile, have rattled off seven consecutive wins, all coming after their only blemish, a road game against Wake Forest where they lost, 72-70. In its three recent games, Michigan defeated Xavier, Wisconsin, and Iowa, giving them three quality wins with two more opportunities on the horizon. Michigan already has two conference wins, nearly matching its season-long total in its last year under Juwan Howard, where it won three Big Ten games en route to an 8-24 record.
When the Razorbacks have the ball on Tuesday, they must deal with a firm defense. Michigan ranks near the top of the nation in several defensive categories, 11th in efficiency, eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 34th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. The one area where it's weak is on the glass, ranking 277th in defensive rebounding. Arkansas isn't the most well-suited to take advantage of this, ranking 272nd in offensive rebounding percentage, but it's still a lengthy team that should have some put-back opportunities nonetheless. The Razorbacks are ranked 75th in offensive efficiency, but they still know how to put the ball through the hoop. They're making 58 percent of shots inside the arc and over 36 percent outside of it, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks 27th-best in the nation.
When the Wolverines have the ball, they will face a similarly daunting challenge. Arkansas also ranks near the top of the charts in several defensive areas, 19th in efficiency, 75th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and ninth in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Unlike Michigan, however, the Razorbacks are elite on the defensive glass, ranking eighth in rebounding percentage. This is critical because one of Michigan's strengths is pulling down offensive boards, so Arkansas should be able to box them out and negate this ability. Offensively, the Wolverines have better numbers than Tuesday's opponent except for one crucial area. Michigan is among the most careless teams in the nation, ranking 335th in offensive turnover percentage. This is bad enough, but it also ranks 351st in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting that it's also being plagued by unforced errors. Well, forced or not, Arkansas ranks 26th in defensive steal percentage and 47th in turnovers, so Michigan will likely lose the turnover margin on Tuesday.
In summary, we have two strong defensive teams going at it. Michigan's offense is slightly better on paper, although when you factor in its turnovers and Arkansas' strength on the defensive glass, the advantages get washed away. All things considered, this game has a good chance of coming down to the final minute. I'm taking the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arkansas +4
Providence 
at DePaul 
The Friars began the season on a promising note, winning its first five games, but then reality hit. Starting in its sixth game, Providence began playing opponents much closer to its talent level, and it has now lost four of its last five games, losing to Oklahoma, Davidson, Indiana, and Rhode Island.
The Blue Demons, on the other hand, have won seven of their first eight games, although, they wisely did not schedule any difficult opponents through all of November. DePaul has played the fourth-easiest schedule among all D-1 teams, per KenPom, so its current raw stats are slightly inflated. It traveled to Texas Tech a week ago and played well for a half, taking a one-point lead into half-time, but promptly surrendered it and lost without any drama, 76-62.
In projecting how this game might play out, both sides appear evenly matched. Providence is weaker on the offensive side of the court, ranking 111th in efficiency and 130th in effective field goal percentage, while the same holds true for DePaul on that end. The Blue Demons rank 121st in defensive efficiency, although they rank noticeably better in specific categories. They rank 18th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 53rd in defensive rebounding percentage, and 65th in free-throw attempt rate, a solid all-around defense, with its biggest flaw being its lack of competition.
Both teams have seen better results when playing in the other direction. The Demon Deacons rank 93rd in offensive efficiency, making nearly 40 percent of their shots from behind the arc and 60 percent inside of it, yielding the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation. These numbers will undoubtedly come down as DePaul goes through the conference season, but it's still a good sign that it's knocking down its shots at a high clip. Providence has ranked well above average in most categories at this end, 73rd in defensive efficiency, 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 45th in defensive rebounding.
Sometimes it's hard to bet on a team like DePaul, one that lost all 21 of its games against Big East teams last season, but this is effectively a brand new team with a completely different roster. Former Butler and Ohio State head coach Chriss Holtmann is now leading the charge, and while the last two seasons in Columbus weren't good, he has led two different programs to the second round of the NCAA tournament on multiple occasions. DePaul probably won't hear its name called this upcoming selection Sunday, but all indicators suggest this team is finally moving in the positive direction.
Offensively, the Blue Demons are shooting three-point attempts at the seventh-highest rate in the nation while making them at the 17th-highest percentage, a powerful combination if it holds up. They also have the ninth-highest assist percentage, another excellent sign of a consistent and productive group. If this game were on the road, I might think twice, but not this time. I'm taking the Blue Demons at home in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: DePaul -1.5
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Tennessee vs. Miami - Over 145
- Arkansas +4
- DePaul -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
