This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
A small number of teams are playing on Thursday's slate, but at least we have the Battle of Iowa on the board. Here are my picks for today's action.
Iowa at 
Iowa State
The faces come and go, but the Hawkeyes' style of basketball never changes. Since head coach Fran McCaffrey joined the program over 10 years ago, Iowa has consistently ranked among the top offensive teams in the nation while posting mediocre numbers on the defensive side. Going back to the 2019-2020 season, Iowa has finished every season with an offensive efficiency rating that ranked in the top five of the nation. In the same time frame, on defense, it has finished as high as No. 75 and as low as No. 168. This style works great against lesser teams, but it doesn't work well against strong defensive teams, as Iowa has already found on three separate occasions this season. The Hawkeyes have already played three teams that rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, and they've lost all three games. Unfortunately for Iowa, its in-state rival currently fits the same mold.
As fate would have it, Iowa State is built counter-opposite its rival. When head coach T.J. Otzelberger joined the program in 2021-22, the Cylcones' defense was seemingly transformed overnight. Iowa State went from 135th in defensive efficiency before Otzerlberger to fifth overall in his first year and then eighth a season ago. And even though Iowa State had minor roster turnover, it's once again ranked in the top 10 of the nation in defense. The Cyclones aren't nearly as effective on offense, ranked 66th, but they're still substantially better than Iowa's defense.
When stacking these teams against each other, one key area that stands out is rebounding. Iowa State is among the best at securing offensive boards, ranked 26th in offensive rebounding rate, while Iowa is ranked 262nd on the defensive glass. The same advantage plays out going in the other direction as well, so Iowa State should most likely have an edge in the rebounding category.
The home team in this matchup has won each of the past three games, and they haven't been close, with each victory coming by at least 19 points. And with the way these two teams compare against each other this season, I don't see this trend changing. I'm laying the points with the home team in this spot. Also, since Iowa State has a stout defense while also not being great in the scoring department, I like our chances of the final score falling below the lofty total number. I'm also taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa State -7 and Under 155
Portland at 
North Dakota State
These two teams are incredibly similar. Both are much better at scoring points and much weaker at defending. North Dakota State has the better offensive attack, ranking No. 144 among all D1 teams, but it also has a worse defense, ranking No. 315. That said, when looking at all the numbers and how this matchup might play out, I give the overall advantage to the Bison.
First, North Dakota State is among the best long-range shooting teams in the country, and substantially better than Portland. The Bison are making over 39 percent from behind the arc, the 18th-highest percentage, while the Pilots are making 30 percent, well below the D1 average.
Second, Portland's perimeter defense has been a major liability, allowing opponents to make over 38 percent of three-point shots. When adding up the volume and percentage, the Pilots are seeing 38 percent of points against come from behind the arc. This is the 20th-highest distribution of three-pointers made against any team in the country, so opponents are seemingly keying on this weakness and taking advantage. Luckily for North Dakota State, this plays right into what it does best. Make three-point shots.
I will be fully transparent and admit I don't feel as strongly about this pick compared to my usual selections, but, based on the numbers in front of me, I like the odds of North Dakota State shooting its way past Portland. With a small spread, I'm going with North Dakota State in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Dakota State -2
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Iowa State -7
- Iowa at Iowa State - Under 155
- North Dakota State -2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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