This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We don't have many high-profile matchups on Thursday's college hoops slate, but that doesn't mean there's not any value on the board. Here are my predictions for a pair of games on Thursday evening.
South Dakota 
at Utah Tech 
The Coyotes have won nine of 13 games to start the season, not a bad record for a team that ranks 223rd on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. When South Dakota wins, it's usually on the strength of its offensive attack. The Coyotes rank 93rd in offensive efficiency but 351st on defense, giving us a team that can routinely put up 90 points on weaker opponents, but then gets lit up for 90-plus when playing decent teams like Iowa and Nebraska. Luckily for the Coyotes, Wednesday's opponent is nowhere close to the aforementioned Big Ten foes.
The Trailblazers, in contrast, have beaten just one D-1 team all season. Utah Tech defeated Denver on a neutral court during Feast Week, with their other two wins coming against teams outside of D-1. The Trailblazers have played a difficult schedule up to this point, struggling every step of the way. They lost to Oregon State, Utah, Boise State, and Utah State, all on the road, and every loss came by at least 20 points.
Comparing these two teams side-by-side, South Dakota's offense stands out like a neon sign. The Coyotes rank 92nd in offensive efficiency, a real threat, as opposed to the Trailblazers' offense, which comes in at 273rd. South Dakota does several things well offensively, ranking near the top of the country in both offensive turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate. The latter will likely come into play as Utah Tech ranks 281st in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This isn't South Dakota's biggest advantage, however. The Coyotes are also exceptional on the offensive glass, ranking 73rd in that category, substantially better than the Trailblazers, which ranked 355th in defensive rebounding. Utah Tech's defensive woes don't end there. The Trailblazers allow opponents to make over 56 percent on two-point attempts, 325th among all D-1 teams. The Coyotes are making over 53 percent from inside the arc, so they'll likely have many open looks near the rim, in addition to free-throw attempts and put-back opportunities due to the other advantages.
It's a good thing South Dakota has a potent offense because it is atrocious on defense, ranking 351st in efficiency. Luckily for the Coyotes, Utah Tech is also terrible when playing in the opposite direction, ranking 273rd in offensive efficiency. The Trailblazers are poor in most areas at this end of the court, ranking outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage, rebounding, three-point percentage, and free-throw percentage. South Dakota is most vulnerable on the defensive glass, but Utah Tech is ill-suited to take advantage. The Trailblazers rank 360th in average height, per KenPom, partially explaining their extensive list of front-court issues. South Dakota ranks 122nd in average height, another factor in this matchup.
All things considered, South Dakota has put up great offensive numbers. Its defense will likely be its undoing against higher-caliber teams, as we've already seen, but Wednesday's opponent doesn't fit that description. I'm laying the points with the Coyotes in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: South Dakota -2.5
Merrimack 
at Saint Mary's
The Warriors are coming off their first loss of the month, a loss to Stanford which snapped a four-game winning streak. The Cardinal jumped out to a 17-point lead and never looked back. Merrimack chipped away at the lead over the second half and made the score look respectable, but it was never actually close. According to KenPom, Stanford had at least a 90 percent chance of winning throughout most of the game. Before this loss, the Warriors had played against three teams that also ranked in the top 100 of KenPom's overall efficiency rankings, and they lost all three games by double-digit margins. This point differential was bad enough, but the number of points scored was arguably worse. The Warriors scored 42 points against VCU, 63 against Rutgers, and 39 against Butler. Needless to say, this is a team that relies on its defense to win games.
The Gaels are also coming off a loss, their second of the season. Saint Mary's traded leads with Boise State a few times in the second half before ultimately losing on a pair of free throws at the end of overtime. The Gaels' only other loss also came against a decent team, a four-point margin against Arizona State. They have played well outside of these two games, earning victories over Nebraska, USC, and Utah as they navigated a challenging schedule, one that ranks 78th in difficulty, per KenPom.
When Merrimack has the ball on Wednesday, it will face the second-toughest defense it has seen all season. The only opponent with a better defense with a higher efficiency rating was VCU, and the Warriors barely cracked 40 points against them. Playing a tough defense is a tough task, but Merrimack's offensive struggles further compound the challenge. The Warriors rank 279th in offensive efficiency and rank at a similar level in many other categories, including effective field goal percentage, rebounding, free-throw attempt rate, and three-point field goal percentage. It's best trait is not turning over the ball, which is nice, but this doesn't mean much if the team can't score. Most college hoops fans are well aware of Saint Mary's defensive pedigree, a consistently stout squad under head coach Randy Bennett, and this year is no exception. The Gaels rank 29th in effective field goal percentage allowed and hold opponents to 44 percent on shots inside the arc, making this a tough defense to beat.
When Saint Mary's has the ball, it too will face a team that takes pride in its defense. Merrimack ranks 115th in defensive efficiency, and it ranks even higher in many other categories including effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and two-point field goal percentage allowed. The one area where it struggles, and this is critical, is on the defensive glass. The Warriors rank 341st in defensive rebounding percentage, a major problem against any team, but it's an even bigger problem on Thursday because Saint Mary's has the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the nation. Second-chance opportunities can make or break a team, so this will likely be a determining factor on Thursday.
Overall, Saint Mary's is in a great position to bounce back after its tough-luck loss at Boise this past weekend. The Gaels have a major offensive advantage, and they get to tee off against a weak offensive team. It's a big number, but I'm laying the points with Saint Mary's.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. Both teams are defensive-oriented, and on top of that, both strongly prefer a slow, grinding game. Merrimack ranks 312th in adjusted tempo with Saint Mary's even further below at 354th. This has been the Gaels' modus operandi for many years under coach Bennett, so we can reliably expect a game with fewer possessions. Given the strengths and styles of each team, I also like our odds of seeing an incredibly low-scoring game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Saint Mary's -20.5 and Under 127.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- South Dakota -2.5
- Saint Mary's -20.5
- Merrimack at Saint Mary's - Under 127.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
