This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday once again brings us a loaded college hoops slate. Here are my picks for a few intriguing matchups tipping off in the evening.
Virginia 
at Georgia Tech 
The Cavaliers were off to a shaky start in league play following back-to-back losses to N.C. State and Wake Forest, but they bounced back in their last game against Virginia Tech to even up their conference record at 3-3. Virginia wasn't tested much during the non-conference season, though they did take down Florida and Texas A&M to display the potential to be a solid team despite a few underwhelming performances the past month.
The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, were in a similar situation having lost five consecutive games before snapping the skid at Clemson. Much like their guests on Saturday, they also recorded a couple of noteworthy victories earlier in the year by beating Mississippi State and Duke, yet their overall body of work throughout the season still doesn't bode well. Georgia Tech's efficiency numbers are both outside the top-100 in both offense and defense, so KenPom is projecting them as favorites in only two more games through the remainder of the season.
Most college hoops fans are well aware of Virginia's perpetually stout defense under head coach Tony Bennett, but the team do a couple of specific things very well that should help them earn a road win on Saturday. First, the Cavaliers are incredibly effective at causing turnovers at 15th in the nation in defensive turnover percentage, a skill that should come in handy because Georgia Tech tends to play sloppy at times ranking below the D1 average in offensive turnover percentage. This stat is even more pronounced when Virginia has the ball as they sit fourth among all D1 teams in offensive turnover percentage while Georgia Tech ranks 348th on the defensive side of the equation.
The other area where the Cavaliers are playing well is defensive rebounding. This was the weaker part of the defense during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but it's turned into a strength since league play started as they've the highest defensive rebounding percentage in the ACC. This improved skill should help them contain the Yellow Jackets, which had excelled at collecting offensive boards earlier in the season yet hasn't tallied as many against ACC opponents having ranked ninth in the league since conference season began.
The only real question mark for Virginia is their offense, but thankfully they're going against a team that's struggled to force stops - especially in recent outings - and ranks third-worst in the ACC in defensive efficiency during league play. If the Cavaliers facing a tougher defensive team, I might think twice. But considering the matchup advantages they'll carry on Saturday, I like their odds of walking away with a win. I'm taking Virginia.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia -1.5
Florida 
at Missouri 
Based on how the two teams have recently performed, I'm betting we're going to see a lot of points in this game. And there are two reasons for this.
Firstly, this matchup features the SEC's two worst defensive teams since the calendar flipped to 2024. Against conference competition, Missouri has managed the worst defensive efficiency in the league with Florida following right up. As one might imagine, this also means each team gives up easy baskets. Missouri enters Saturday with the the worst effective field goal percentage allowed in the SEC and Florida with the third-highest mark. The efficiency numbers almost don't do justice and the raw numbers are just as bad. Missouri has allowed at least 90 points in four of its last six games against major conference teams. Florida gave up 103 points at Mississippi on Jan. 10 before another 85 points at Tennessee last time out.
Secondly, the Gators push the pace as much as possible and force a high number of possessions in nearly all their outings. They play at the 14th-fastest tempo in the nation, and this practice has continued against SEC foes with the quickest during conference play.
When looking at how both sides match up against each other, Florida should get numerous put-back opportunities. The Gators are among the best in the nation on the offensive glass with the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in D1. This is an ideal strength when facing Missouri, as the Tigers have faced substantial problems with locking down defensive boards at 329th in that category. This advantage makes even more sense when looking at the rosters. Florida is the 11th-tallest team in the country according to KenPom's average height data and Missouri is 246th, so it's easy to see why Florida should easily win the rebounding battle.
Despite having a major advantage on the glass, I'm not confident Florida will leave with a win. The Gators had a very similar edge against Mississippi, though it didn't matter because they opted out of playing defense. The betting total is high, but I'm thinking it's not high enough. I'm taking the over in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 160
Connecticut 
at Villanova 
Now riding a six-game winning streak, UConn has ascended to the top of the AP poll. Everything looks fine on the surface at 16-2, but this team is far from perfect. Most notably, the defense just isn't quite as sharp as last season's championship squad where they ranked third in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency - though the latter has fallen to 31st. The dropoff is even more pronounced when looking at data from the past month as the Huskies rank seventh in the Big East in defensive efficiency during league play. It's a safe bet Donovan Clingan's return will help in this area, though he only played 16 minutes in his first game back Wednesday, so it's hard to know how quickly he'll return to being 100 percent healthy.
Villanova, on the other hand, will be looking to get back in the win column after losing at Marquette in its last matchup. Before that loss, the Wildcats were playing well as they came out on top in five of six games - including over Creighton and Xavier. Villanova also defeated Texas Tech and North Carolina earlier in the year, so it's proven it can consistently compete against the best teams.
In stacking these sides against each other, the Wildcats have two important qualities that can help them earn a win on Saturday. They're among the best teams in the nation on the defensive glass, ranking 13th in defensive rebounding percentage - a critical trait in this matchup as the Huskies are among the best at grabbing offensive boards at eighth in that category. Assuming Villanova can play up to its usual standards, it should be able to neutralize one of UConn's biggest strengths. The other trait that should come into play is free-throw shooting. Villanova is making almost 82 percent from the charity stripe, the highest among all D1 teams. This is bad news for UConn because the Huskies have experienced problems committing defensive fouls all season long and rank 248th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. This problem has only continued in recent games as they've posted the worst rate in the Big East since conference play started.
Considering Villanova's advantages and balanced play on both ends of the court, I like their odds as home dogs. I'm taking the points with the Wildcats in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Villanova +4
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Virginia -1.5
- Florida at Missouri - Over 160
- Villanova +4
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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