This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The college hoops world is relatively quiet Saturday, but thankfully we still have a pair of intriguing games on the slate. One features two college basketball powerhouses squaring off while the other has arguably the two best teams atop the Mountain West. Both potentially have ramifications come Selection Sunday. Here are my predictions for two marquee matchups tipping off later in the day.
Gonzaga 
vs. UCLA 
The Bulldogs have won nine of 12 games and have assembled an impressive resume through non-conference play having already collected wins over Baylor, Arizona State, San Diego State, and Indiana with a margin of victory of at least eight points - if not much more. Even though Gonzaga lists three losses, they played well in each falling to West Virginia and Kentucky in overtime before more recently dropping one to Connecticut by six. They rank 23rd in strength of schedule, per KenPom, so their overall performance through the first two months of the season has been remarkable.
In stark contrast, the Bruins have hardly challenged themselves up to this point at 331st in non-conference strength of schedule with only its conference matchups against Washington and Oregon slightly raising the difficulty. Their best victories came against Oregon and Arizona taking both in nail-biting fashion. Outside of these two results, UCLA only faced two opponents in the top-100 of KenPom's overall efficiency standings. The first real test came in early November when New Mexico beat them 72-64 in a game that was never close. The second one came earlier this week when the Bruins blew a double-digit lead to North Carolina before losing on free throws in the final minute.
When Gonzaga has the ball on Saturday, we'll see a classic example of strength versus strength. The Bulldogs are averaging the most points per game in D-1, and they'll face a defense sitting fourth in adjusted efficiency. UCLA's defense makes life difficult for opposing teams thanks to causing havoc and boasting the highest turnover percentage in the nation. However, this edge likely won't provide its usual advantage as Gonzaga is ninth in offensive turnover percentage. Outside of this category, UCLA's defense doesn't look as impressive at 121st in defensive rebounding percentage and 249th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, which are lower than Gonzaga's offensive standing in those areas. The Bulldogs are making over 57 percent of shots inside the arc and 35 percent beyond it, yielding an effective field goal percentage ranking 41st. They also make a seventh-best 81 percent of their foul shots to give them a good chance of scoring from anywhere on the court.
When UCLA is in possession, they'll face an uphill battle sitting 60th in offensive efficiency versus a 24th-ranked Gonzaga defense. The Bruins are particularly awful at free-throw shooting at under 69 percent, which came up in the aforementioned matchup with North Carolina at they only made 13-of-22 (59 percent) during the two-point defeat. Aside from this, UCLA offers above-average numbers in most offensive categories, yet these raw stats don't mean as much when we consider its schedule as their opponents collectively ranked 272nd in defensive efficiency. Judging from the efficiency metrics, Gonzaga represents the second-best defensive side UCLA will have faced.
Gonzaga already has several impressive wins to its credit beating Baylor by 38, coming out on top at San Diego State by 13, and dominating Indiana by 16. The Bruins, on the other hand, survived close calls against Oregon and Arizona - and that's it. Considering the resumes and profiles of each team, I'm taking the better offensive team and one that's substantially more battle-tested. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga.
I'm also taking the over. The Bulldogs already shredded many respectable teams this season dropping 101 points on Baylor, 88 on Arizona State, 89 against Indiana, and 80 points at San Diego State - the latter being the best defensive team coming into Saturday. Gonzaga has consistently played at one of the quickest paces in the nation under head coach Mark Few, and this year is no different at 55th in adjusted tempo. UCLA, meanwhile, is finally bucking a longstanding trend under head coach Mick Cronin as they've increased their pace at 154th in average possession length on offense after sitting 337th in the same category last year. Given Gonzaga's potent offense and UCLA's quicker pace-of-play, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring outcome.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -4 and Over 148.5
Utah State 
at San Diego State 
The Aggies impressively won 11 of 12 non-conference games with results over Iowa, St. Bonaventure, North Texas, and Saint Mary's (on the road). Utah State's only stumble was a two-point home loss to UC San Diego, which doesn't sound great though the opponents rank 81st in overall efficiency. Even still, they've been trending well throughout the season starting at 71st on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, working their way up to 46th, and facing their toughest test yet on Saturday.
The Aztecs came out on top in eight of 10 non-conference matchups, including two massive resume-builders at the Players Era Festival during Feast Week earning an 18-point decision against Creighton before pulling off an overtime win over Houston. San Diego State lost to Oregon during the same event, and then hosted Gonzaga in a loss before the tournament. Both were double-digit defeats, so there isn't much silver lining.
Avid college hoops fans are unsurprised to hear that San Diego State once again boasts an elite defense like every other season, yet this year's squad has one glaring problem. They rank near the top of the nation in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, but are near the bottom in defensive rebounding percentage at 295th. This might be fine against certain opponents, though Utah State sits ninth in offensive rebounding percentage. On top of this massive advantage, they also make 57 percent of two-point attempts. I should also note the Aggies hold an edge when it comes to drawing contact at 77th in free-throw attempt rate while SDSU is 180th. Utah State has made 76 percent from the charity stripe, another key point that'll likely come into play.
San Diego State hasn't been nearly as sharp at the other end ranking 72nd in offensive efficiency and much lower in several important categories such as effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly enough, the Aztecs are 324th in free-throw attempt rate to suggest they're settling for jumpers and generally lacking the aggression needed to get a whistle. Either way, Utah State are 82nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed, so it's unlikely San Diego State will win the free-throw margin. San Diego State hasn't had much success from close range in general hitting under 50 percent of their two-point attempts. They've seen success with their long-range shooting at 36 percent, yet sit 270th in three-point attempt rate. One more important note is that the Aggies' defense is among the best at forcing turnovers at 19th, noticeably better than the Aztecs' 85th-ranked offense.
It's tough to go against a team like San Diego State. But if there's ever a matchup, this is it. The Aztecs' defense has an Achilles' heel, and the Aggies are well-suited to take advantage. On top of that, Utah State has played solid defense all season having held a strong offensive team in Iowa to 69 points. Presuming the Aggies play up to their usual standard, I like their odds of keeping this game close - if not pulling off an upset. I'm taking the points with the Aggies here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah State +4
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Gonzaga -4
- Gonzaga vs. UCLA - Over 148.5
- Utah State +4
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
