The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is set for Sunday, May 10 in Chicago, where the order of the top 14 picks gets decided live on ABC. Want to see how it might play out? Spin the ping-pong balls below. The simulator runs on the league's actual weighted odds (the same numbers the NBA uses on lottery night) and reveals picks 14 through 1 with full top-four suspense.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 WAS | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 47.9 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 3.7 |
| 2 IND | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 27.8 | 20.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 3.9 |
| 3 BKN | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 14.8 | 26.0 | 7.0 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 4.1 |
| 4 UTA | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 27.1 | 17.9 | 2.4 | · | · | · | · | · | · | 4.6 |
| 5 SAC | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | · | · | · | · | · | 4.8 |
| 6 MEM | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | · | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | · | · | · | · | 5.5 |
| 7 ATL via NOP | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | · | · | 19.8 | 35.6 | 13.8 | 1.4 | <0.1 | · | · | · | 6.4 |
| 8 DAL | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | · | · | · | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 | · | · | 6.9 |
| 9 CHI | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | · | · | · | · | 50.8 | 25.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 | <0.1 | · | 8.0 |
| 10 MIL | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | · | · | · | · | · | 65.9 | 19.0 | 1.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 9.2 |
| 11 GSW | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | · | · | · | · | · | · | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 | 10.3 |
| 12 OKC via LAC | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 | 11.4 |
| 13 MIA | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 92.9 | 2.3 | 12.5 |
| 14 CHA | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | 97.6 | 13.7 |
How might the results of this lottery move NBA betting lines at various legal sportsbook sites? Stick with RotoWire to find out.
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
The NBA Draft Lottery decides the order of the top 14 picks in the upcoming draft. Only the first four picks are randomly drawn; picks 5 through 14 fall in reverse order of regular-season record.
Fourteen ping-pong balls go into a hopper, and four are drawn at a time to form a four-number combination. There are 1,001 possible combinations, of which 1,000 are assigned to the 14 participating teams in proportion to their NBA Draft Lottery odds. The three worst teams each get 140 of those combinations, or a flat 14% shot at the No. 1 pick. The combinations decrease from there down to a 0.5% chance for the best non-playoff team.
Two important rules to know:
· The pick floor. A team can fall no further than four spots below their pre-lottery position. The Wizards, who finished with the league's worst record, are guaranteed a top-five pick. The 14th-worst team can fall to the 14th pick at worst.
· Tied teams split odds evenly. When two teams tie in record, their combined ping-pong ball totals are split between them. That's why Utah and Sacramento each have 11.5% odds at No. 1, and why Dallas and Atlanta split the No. 7 and No. 8 slots at 6.8%/6.7%.
For the full pick-by-pick probability matrix (the chances of every team landing at every slot) switch to the Pick-by-Pick Odds tab on the simulator.
When is the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
· Date: Sunday, May 10, 2026
· Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
· TV: ABC
· Location: McCormick Place, Chicago
The full draft is Tuesday, June 23 (first round) and Wednesday, June 24 (second round) at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
What Does Each Team Need From This Lottery?
The 2026 class is one of the deepest in years. AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson all carry franchise-player projections. That makes lottery position more valuable than usual. A few storylines worth tracking:
· Washington has the league's worst record but, under the flattened odds, only a 14% shot at No. 1. Their floor is fifth.
· Atlanta owns the better of the Pelicans' and Bucks' picks. That's a leftover from last summer's trade with New Orleans.
· Oklahoma City holds the Clippers' pick from the 2019 Paul George deal. Even at 1.5% odds, the defending champs have another lottery ticket.
· Dallas doesn't control its own first-round pick again until 2031, so this might be the only chance to pair a top young player with Cooper Flagg before his rookie deal runs out.
How Accurate Is This Simulator?
The simulator runs the same weighted-draw logic the NBA uses on lottery night. We verified the output against Tankathon's published probability matrix across 50,000 simulated runs – every cell matches within 0.3 percentage points (rounding noise on the published values themselves). When Charlotte wins No. 1 in the simulator, that's a real 0.5% outcome, not a scripted long shot.
Check out the RotoWire.com 2026 NBA Mock Draft for more.
NBA Draft Lottery Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is on Sunday, May 10, 2026 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC, held at McCormick Place in Chicago.
Which team has the best odds in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?
The Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets are tied for the best odds, each with a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. Washington holds the tiebreaker for the No. 1 standings slot, but all three teams have identical lottery odds.
Can the team with the worst record fall out of the top four?
Yes. Under the current rules, a team can drop a maximum of four spots from its pre-lottery position. The Wizards can fall no lower than the No. 5 pick, but they only have a 47.9% chance of picking first overall and could land anywhere in the top five.
How many ping-pong ball combinations does each team get?
There are 1,001 possible four-number combinations from 14 ping-pong balls, and 1,000 of them get distributed to the lottery teams in proportion to their odds. The three worst teams each get 140 combinations (14%), down to just 5 combinations (0.5%) for the best non-playoff team.
Why does Atlanta appear in the lottery if they made the Play-In Tournament?
Atlanta holds the better of the New Orleans Pelicans' and Milwaukee Bucks' first-round picks via last summer's draft-night trade with the Pelicans. Since New Orleans finished with a worse record than Milwaukee, the Hawks slot in at pick No. 7 with the Pelicans' odds.
