This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
How wild was that final Sunday slate of the season? I'm excited that we no longer have to guess how these rotations play out because this is the time when teams shorten their rotations and maximize their star's output. That makes things much easier on us from a DFS perspective, and it's one of the best times to play! With that in mind, let's dive into these Game 1s!
Guards
De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. GS ($32)
Everyone is picking the Warriors to win this series, but Fox has other ideas. The speedy guard scored at least 27 Yahoo points in 65 of the 69 games he finished this year. That amazing floor is backed by a 41-point average, with Fox scoring at least 38 fantasy points in all three meetings with Golden State this year. That's no surprise when considering the Dubs' defense, ranked 21st in points allowed while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs. They also play at the fastest pace in the NBA, making Fox even more valuable with his elite mobility.
Marcus Smart, BOS vs. ATL ($18)
Smart has been volatile all year, but this 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year should never be this cheap. The feisty guard is still averaging nearly 30 Yahoo points per game and should see a boost in playing time in the postseason. Despite playing just 32 minutes a night this year, Smart is sporting a 37-minute average over the last three postseasons. He's also annihilated Atlanta in the last two years, scoring at least 29 Y! points in four of their previous five meetings. Not to mention, the Hawks rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and 26th in points allowed.
Guard to Avoid
Immanuel Quickley, NYK at CLE ($28)
Quickley was incredible filling in for the shorthanded Knicks in the final months, but he's likely moving back to the bench since this roster is expected to be at full health. In his 60 games coming off the bench, IQ is averaging just 23 Yahoo points per game. That's a terrifying total from such an expensive player, and it's clear this price tag is inflated because of his bloated role. With Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle likely returning, Quickley could be held to 20-25 minutes in a reserve role. We also hate the matchup, with Cleveland posting the best defensive rating in the NBA. That was on full display when IQ averaged 20 Y! points in their four meetings this year.
Forwards
Draymond Green, GSW at SAC ($28)
Draymond can be one of the best playmakers in the league, and he always steps up in the postseason. In 145 playoff games, Green averages 11.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks across 35 minutes a night. That's nearly 40 fantasy points per game, which isn't far off his 35-point average across the regular season's final month. That sparkling form should carry over against Sacramento, with the Kings sitting 25th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency.
John Collins, ATL at BOS ($15)
Collins isn't the sort of guy who will go off for 50, but he should never be just $15. This versatile forward saw a massive price drop because of a second-half slump, but he's usually closer to $25. That's what we've seen recently, with JC scoring at least 23 Yahoo points in 11 of his final 12 regular season games. He also had a 27-point average in that span, which is all you can ask for from a $15 player. He's succeeded against Boston over the last two years, averaging 31 Y! points per game in their last four meetings.
Forward to Avoid
Tobias Harris, PHI vs. BKN ($20)
Toby is an amazing player, but he's impossible to trust when this roster is at full health. Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey swallow up all of the usage, leaving Harris with crumbs. The efficient forward is barely averaging 20 Yahoo points per game when all of those guys suit up. That obviously won't get it done from a player in this price range, especially since he failed to crack 24 Yahoo points in his final six games of the regular season. He had one of his patented duds against the Nets, with Toby tallying just 16 fantasy points back in February.
Centers
Domantas Sabonis, SAC vs. GS ($44)
I'm one of the only people picking Sacramento to advance in this series, and it's because I believe Fox and Domas are going to go off every game. The All-Star has been doing that all season, scoring at least 33 Yahoo points in 74 of 79 games. He's also flirting with a 50-point average for the year, providing 21.3 points, 16.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists in his three matchups with the Warriors. Golden State is simply one of the best matchups possible behind their blistering pace and poor defense, and we anticipate Domas regularly posting 25-point triple-doubles in this series.
Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. NYK ($23)
The Fro does not get enough credit because he's one of the best all-around centers in the NBA. The big man has scored at least 26 Yahoo points in 54 of the 65 games he's finished, providing a 37-point average in those outings. That's incredible from a player in this price range, and we saw Allen amass 40 Y! points in his most recent meeting with the Knicks. All you need is a double-double from Allen to be an amazing value, which feels like a guarantee since that's what he's been averaging for four years.
Center to Avoid
Robert Williams, BOS vs. ATL ($18)
The Time Lord has been one of the best per-minute producers throughout his career, but it just hasn't translated this season for whatever reason. The big man has only cracked 21 minutes twice over his last eight outings, with one of those being a game where the whole starting lineup was rested. That means Rob-Will is stuck in a 20-minute reserve role, which is terrifying since he's only cracked 30 fantasy points in six games all year! This is a tough individual matchup as well because Onyeka Okongwu is one of the best bench centers in the NBA.
