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Four Game 1s start rolling out at 3:00 p.m. EDT, so get those lineups in early. We're here to help you out as the quarterfinals get into full swing.
SLATE OVERVIEW
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I still favor cash games when the slate is small, but it's worth it to get a single-entry tournament or two in the mix. Elite player production levels off in the playoffs, which makes value opportunities hard to come by. To post a big number, you'll need to be impeccable with your elite selection, as the slim value available today is more obvious. I'll outline a few of my favorite avenues below.
INJURIES
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ELITE PLAYERS
We have seven players at 10k and above, and there's one pivotal question to answer right away during lineup construction. The potential outcome of the Lakers-Grizzlies matchup looms large at the top of the player pool. The Lakers went 2-1 against the Grizzlies during the regular season, and they did so without Anthony Davis ($11,500) and LeBron James ($11,000) on the court together. Davis missed one game in January while James was absent in February and March. Both excelled in their appearances with Davis exploding for 30 points and 22 rebounds in one. Jaren Jackson ($8,300) was on the floor for all three and didn't perform especially well. Couple that with Steven Adams' absence, and it seems the Lakers would have the advantage up front. It's worth noting Xavier Tillman ($5,800) missed one of the losses and double-doubled in the other two, but Davis has a clear advantage over the 6-foot-8 youngster. Should we play both sides of this matchup? Ja Morant ($10,400) missed one of the games, but notched a triple-double during a win at home, so history suggests it might not be a bad idea. The game also lists the highest projected total of the night. The intangibles that James can provide during the playoffs are hard to ignore. And with the Grizzlies facing LA's elite duo together, smashing the elites here should pay off.
I think there's potential blowout risk in Milwaukee, so I don't favor shelling out $12k on Giannis Antetokounmpo, and it similarly makes me shy away from Jimmy Butler. My tune could change as the series continues. But for now, I won't have much exposure.
The unique way to go at the top would probably involve a game stack with Kawhi Leonard ($10,700) and Devin Booker ($9,500) or utilizing one at the very least. It wouldn't surprise me to see Leonard on Booker and vice-versa, and it's one of two strikes against them. Another reason to be wary is a lack of value-beating performances when they've played each other. Even though the exposure to the duo will be lower, it's definitely the riskier path at the top.
Also consider: Jamal Murray, DEN ($8,400) vs. MIN
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Chris Paul, PHO ($7,900) vs. LAC
I can't think of a better way for Paul to begin the playoffs than against his former team. Like LeBron, Paul always brings it when the playoffs come around - assuming he's healthy. He seems to be 100 percent and delivered double-digit assists in every game he played against the Clippers this season. Only one of three resulted in a value-beating number at this salary, but the other two came awfully close. It's all about shot volume for Paul, and he'll need at least 10 attempts to stay viable.
Mike Conley, MIN ($6,900) @ DEN
The T-Wolves opened the play-in with a loss, and tepid play from Anthony Edwards was a major factor. Conley picked up the slack in his absence by producing identical shot volume, though he didn't drain as many threes in the win against the Pelicans and it's mostly a matter of how hot his stroke will be. He hasn't faced the Nuggets yet as Minnesota's point guard, so we don't have a lot of history to rely on. I'd consider LA's D'Angelo Russell ($6,800) as a pivot at a similar salary, and I used him more than Conley in cash builds.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,200) vs. LAC
I'm most inclined to put Anthony Davis in the center slot, but Ayton would probably be my next preference due to unfavorable circumstances elsewhere. I don't want to tempt fate by slotting Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns against Nikola Jokic. I like Bam Adebayo, but he's currently too overvalued against the Bucks. This leaves us with Ayton, who didn't exactly shine against the Clippers in the regular season. I think the re-insertion of Kevin Durant will only help Ayton, though it's unlikely he'll outscore Durant or Booker but has a good shot to be the third-best option in the offense.
Kyle Anderson, MIN ($6,400) @ DEN
Anderson enjoyed his second-highest FDFP total of the season against the Nuggets and also put up 43.8 FDFPS in another matchup. I suspect the T-Wolves will swing back to him as a starter over Nickeil Alexander-Walker due to the need for a taller starting five against the Nuggets, so we should see max minutes. Anderson also played exceptionally well during the play-in. As long as his secondary numbers stay consistent, he should provide value at this salary. I don't mind Aaron Gordon ($6,300) on the other side of this matchup either.
Austin Reaves, LAL ($5,100) @ MEM
We have to start finding some value below 6k, and I think Reaves fits the bill. He offers dual eligibility to place him in one of four slots, and he's performed well even with both All-Stars on the court. Reaves has received a bad rap in the local press, but he'll keep racking up playing time as long as he's outplaying LA's more recent acquisitions. It's hard to endorse other Lakers when James and Davis are at 100 percent, but I like Reaves more than Dennis Schroder, who played the hero in the last game but was very inconsistent otherwise during the narrow victory.
Max Strus, MIA ($5,200) @ MIL
If you watched Miami's last outing, you already know about Strus and how hot he was out of the gate. I don't think we'll see 31 points from him, but he's definitely worth the potential upside at this salary. You can also use Strus in four spots, and the Heat should continue to rely on him heavily with the team struggling through some backcourt injury issues.
Taurean Prince, MIN ($4,200) @ DEN
To be clear, I'm not crazy about Prince in this spot. However, he stands out at a very low salary that can help out your bottom line. Among the bargain bin players available, he offers the most upside potential. And if you're going to find room for three high-value players, you'll need to go this low. The only other player I'll take at this level is Mason Plumlee ($4,300), who snuck into a few of my lineups as a massive budget option at center.
Also consider: Norman Powell, LAC ($6,700) @ PHO
