The Spurs caught lightning in a bottle and evened up the series against the defending champs. I have ideas about how they did it and whether they'll employ the same strategy tonight. It's all in today's article, which focuses on the best DFS builds for Tuesday's DraftKings Showdown contests. We'll begin with a brief introduction to the format for the uninitiated.
For DraftKings Showdown contests, participants are given six positions to fill. While five of them are normal (UTIL) spots, the remaining slot allows for a 1.5x multiplier to be given to the selected player. We typically call it the Captain slot. That's a significant bonus for the selected player, but there is a catch. The player's base salary is also multiplied by 1.5x when used in the multiplier spot.
The most common mistake made by DFS players is assuming that finding the game's top scorer and placing them in the multiplier is the key to winning. While that strategy can happen occasionally, it's often not the case. The top scorer will usually have a high salary, and the 1.5x sum will restrict your ability to maximize production in the UTIL spots. If a player's base salary is $10,000, it increases to $15,000 under the multiplier, eating up a third of your available salary.
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So, how did the Spurs pull off a Game 4 beatdown of the Thunder? Look no further than the defense's treatment of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Rather than crowding him with double-team schemes at halfcourt, the Spurs aimed to neutralize off-the-ball shooters and only gave the MVP additional attention at the perimeter. Via this method, they were still able to contest his three-point shots while limiting the MVP's assist options. The result was a sharp downtick in production within SGA's supporting cast. Luckily for San Antonio, Gilgeous-Alexander's shot was off throughout the game. Whether the Spurs' strategy can stand up against a proficient shooting night from SGA is an open question, but I would expect them to lean into the most effective defensive setup the Thunder have experienced in the postseason. If SGA beats the single coverage more consistently, the Spurs may be forced to abandon the idea entirely.
Also, the Thunder's on/off-court data against Victor Wembanyama was downright dreadful. After a couple of effective nights against him, the Thunder seemed devoid of answers when he was on the court, and only found a rhythm when he took a seat. The Spurs were exponentially more effective with Wemby in the game, and it's one reason why maximizing exposure to him will be essential for DFS success.
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OKC- OUT: Ajay Mitchell (calf) QUESTIONABLE: Jalen Williams (hamstring)
While it's prudent to check on Williams' status before game lock, his appearance is unlikely. With both guys out, we should expect more from Jared McCain ($4,200) and Isaiah Joe ($2,800).
Captain (1.5x) Candidates
Victor Wembanyama, SAS (CPTN $19,500, UTIL $13,000)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (CPTN $18,000, UTIL $12,000)
De'Aaron Fox, SAS (CPTN $10,800, UTIL $7,200)
Regardless of who you choose as Captain, Wembanyama and SGA are essential for the majority of your builds. You get an average of $4,750 per slot with SGA at the top, and $4,625 per slot with Wembanyama in the multiplier. Luckily, Mitchell's absence will open up some value at the bottom (see below). I still like Fox as a sneaky multiplier play, as he was able to beat 5x value after a slow start. A Fox/SGA/Wemby build yields a similar shot average as above, with an average of $4,733 for the remaining three spots. The combination of the Spurs' new defensive approach and SGA's ability to exploit it should result in a much better game for the MVP, and I'm inclined to lean in that direction. Taking SGA over Wembanyama only saves us $125, so it may still make sense to take Wembanyama and the inevitable 35-40 minutes he'll receive.
Utility Candidates
All MVP candidates are also recommended for UTIL positions. I will split the options into two groups. With the aforementioned builds in mind, we can fit in one of the following:
Devin Vassell, SAS ($7,000)
Alex Caruso, OKC ($6,400)
Vassell was a borderline Captain option, but I decided to leave him as a utility-only play tonight. He's a better get than Caruso, who fell victim to San Antonio's adjusted defensive approach. I think Mark Daigneault is keenly aware of why things went down the way they did in Game 4, but it may be difficult to write up a way to get Caruso more production if he's being heavily guarded like he was on Sunday. As I said, SGA may be able to force the Spurs out of the new look, but San Antonio's perimeter defense looked hard to beat once they moved to single coverage. These guys are slightly more attainable with a Fox build, but you'll have to go lower in the next group if you're taking Wemby or SGA in the multiplier.
Isaiah Hartenstein, OKC ($4,600)
Jared McCain ($4,200)
Isaiah Joe, OKC ($2,800)
The Thunder will respond to the Spurs' new defensive method, and I think a surprise player will be a byproduct of their approach. While Hartenstein or McCain are great options to finish out a variety of builds, a Wemby or SGA build needs a bargain like Joe to balance out your roster.
Wembanyama/Gilgeous-Alexander/Vassell/Hartenstein/J Williams/Joe
I like this build, although it is a bit heavy on the Thunder. An alternative build with SGA at the top and Fox in for Vassell could look something like this:
Gilgeous-Alexander/Wembanyama/Fox/Vassell/Joe/Kenrich Williams
Williams is little more than a punt here, but you get a slight boost from Fox, who is at roughly the same salary point as Vassell. You'll find a variety of players at similar price points, so it's easy to create several combos between the two groups.
Building a Castle
Once the Spurs committed to single coverage, Stephon Castle was excellent in keeping SGA at bay. My worry with Castle is the amount of energy expended during that task, and the effect it may have on the offensive end. While getting Castle involved is far from impossible, it creates a shaky build. Even if you use Joe, you'll need to use Keldon Johnson and Jaylin Williams to finish out the lineup. It's a risk-reward build, for sure.
Gilgeous-Alexander/Wembanyama/Castle/Joe/K Johnson/J Williams
